Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Wednesday, November 13, 2002
Mass Customization Boom and Deflation for the Next Decade
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
Top one hundred trends: 100-91, 90-81, 80-71
70 – Little or no inflation over the next decade, despite dramatic economic growth. (Dent)
69 – The next depression from around 2010 to 2025. (Dent)
68 – Many niche products from the past decade moving into the mainstream. This means changing leadership in most industries, threatening many established products and services. (Dent)
67 – A general preference for safety, clean air, privacy, and selective intimacy—a kind of "humanness"—will lead a migration trend from suburbs toward smaller cities, towns, and neighborhoods similar to the last generation's move from the cities to the suburbs. (Dent)
66 – The baby boom generation will demand more personalized, customized, high-quality products. (Dent)
65 – These demands will move business away from production of standardized products on the assembly line to delivery of specialized, personalized products and services produced at the front lines of organizations as close to the customer as possible. (Dent)
64 – Third of 3 boomer age segment waves drives a spending surge that won't peak until around 2006 to 2010 (Dent)
63 – There are two concentrated savings phases in the family life cycle, ages 35 to 44 and 50 to 74. Baby boomers will be moving strongly into this first range from the early 1990s into the early 2000s. (Dent)
62 – As savings increase, there will be more capital for our economy to invest This means a lower cost of capital for our businesses, which will make them more competitive and help encourage a longer-term view on capital investment again. (Dent)
61 – Labor shortages until 2015, automate for productivity (Dent)
60-51
What’s your take?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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