The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Sunday, May 26, 2002

Got Knowledge?

Chapter One: Basecamp

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

An ounce of foresight is worth a ton of hindsight!

In this crazy world filled with unintended (and intended) consequences, collusion and conflicts of interest, chances are better than 73% that within the next 18 to 36 months your worklife will be turned upside down.

If we extend your life to include family members, close friends and associates, right now you, or someone close to you, walks around in shock, denial, and anger. Dazed and confused.

Like walking down the street and falling into a hole. Helpless, realizing it was your fault, you feel like it takes forever before you can find your way out.

Rule of thumb. For every $10,000 of salary, plan to be in the hole for a month or more.

Let's say, motivated more by desperation than inspiration, you settle for any job or project that will give you a rung up on the ladder. You are free to walk down the street again.

Phew.

Sometime over the next 36 months, as they say on "Candid Camera," when you least expect it ... you'll walk down the street, pretend not to see the deep hole in the sidewalk, but fall in again.

If you learned anything in hindsight from the first hole, you may have kept your network in tact, had a plan "B" inactively in place. This time it may not take forever to climb out.

What's with this street? You see the deep hole in the sidewalk. But out of habit you fall in, eyes wide-open.

So this time you do a little soul searching.

You ask your self --What caused the problem? How could the problem have been prevented? What specifically could have been done to avoid or to minimize the impact? Who should have taken the action? How will you be able to recognize this type of problem ahead of time so you can take the appropriate preventive action?

Does this sound familiar?

What have you learned?

What did you experience?

What are your thoughts and feelings about the experience?

What concepts and theories have you learned or developed as a result?

Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.

9:15 AM

Thursday, May 23, 2002

In Hindsight

Chapter One: Basecamp

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

From "Autobiography in Five Short Chapters," by Portia Nelson from her book, "There's A Hole in My Sidewalk."

I
I walk, down the street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I fall in
I am lost ... I am helpless
It is my fault.
It takes forever to find a way out.

II
I walk down the same street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I pretend I don't see it.
I fall in again.
I can't believe I am in the same place,
but it isn't my fault.
It still takes a long time to get out.

III
I walk, down the street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I see it is there.
I still fall in ... it's a habit
my eyes are open.
I know where I am.
It is my fault.
I get out immediately.

IV
I walk down the same street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I walk around it.

V
I walk down another street.

Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.

5:40 PM