The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Wednesday, June 19, 2002

The Way of the Adventurer

Chapter One: Basecamp

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

Second Journal Entry on Day 4

The loud noise startled me. Half expecting my mentor, Master Sun's stunt double -- Grey Owl, to reappear at some point before I leave this cabin and continue on my vacation, I turned around. Over there by the bookcase a book had fallen off the shelf. Somehow it landed upside down, opened to this page. A little eery.

The Art of Strategy, R.L. Wing, Doubleday, N.Y., 1988, page 147

“The Nine Situations and Variations

Expand and manipulate the advantages and manage the conditions of others.
Their study cannot be neglected.

Generally, it is the Tao of the Adventure

To penetrate as a result of Focus and to be superficial as a result of Idleness.

Those who are in an Isolated Situation
Must cross over the boundaries of the organization toward the opposition.

Those who are in an Intersecting Situation
Must communicate all around.

Those in a Serious Situation
Must penetrate deeply.

Those who are in a Simple Situation
Must penetrate superficially.

Those who are in a Surrounded Situation
Must defend the exit and narrow the advance.

Those who are in a Desperate Situation
Must press onward without a location.

Thus, in Idle Situations, we lead by directing ourselves as One.

In Simple Situations, we lead by making use of dependent domains.

In Competitive Situations, we lead by hurrying our backups.

In Negotiable Situations, we lead by attending to our defenses.

In Intersecting Situations, we lead by strengthening our connections.

In Serious Situations, we lead by maintaining the flow of provisions.

In Obstructed Situations, we lead by advancing on the Path.

In Surrounded Situations, we lead by blocking any openings.

In Desperate Situations, we lead by making it known we may not survive.

For under the conditions of Strategy,

Those who are surrounded will resist;

Those who can neither gain nor stop will fight;

Those who are beyond their limit will obey.

Therefore, those who do not know the Plan of other leaders
Are not prepared to negotiate.

Those who do not know the positions of the mountains, forests, passes, and marshes
Are not able to Move the Force.

Those who do not employ local guides
Are not able to gain advantage in the Situation.”

I’m not sure what all this means, but I’ve decided to add it to my knapsack for reading and digesting along the way.

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