The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Sunday, July 14, 2002

Disorientation, Networking, and Self-Doubts

Chapter One: Basecamp

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

Journal of 2020 Foresight: So, here in Lost Explorer’s journal, you are saying out of examining our past – the disturbing events and low points, as well as, the satisfying events and the high points, we’ll discover what?

Pathfinder: Insights about our self and interconnections we overlooked.

J2020F: Such as?

PF: Where we contribute to our failures through inattention, bad habits, and personal weaknesses.

J2020F: And where conditions beyond our control conspire against us?

PF: Yes, and here we have to be careful. Too many times we play the victim game.

J2020F: By that you mean we point fingers at other people or events when we should be pointing fingers at ourselves?

PF: Exactly.

J2020F: But, in Lost Explorer’s case he got laid off. How could he have known? As his boss said it wasn’t about his performance, it was about the company’s response to the computer industry downturn.

PF: Look at the pattern emerging. Lost Explorer is shocked to find himself in a financial, family and career crisis.

He says that out of the blue, with no advanced warning, he’s been cut loose from his work friends, teammates, and work routines.

Why? From the company standpoint, he’s been told that the industry – all of its competitors, markets, and customers – have been forced to cut back. Why? Has this been a great secret?

J2020F: To him, yes, I’d have to say so. What is your point?

PF: Could he have anticipated the possibility and taken any action?

J2020F: You mean, above and beyond his 110% devoted to accomplishing his performance objectives? Isn’t it enough to just do your job to the best of your ability and expect just reward and remuneration?

PF: Let me answer this way. When Lost Explorer successfully lands his next opportunity – what kind of due diligence do you believe he owes his family and himself as he sizes up that opportunity? And what would you monitor, to prevent or minimize a disruption to your income of this magnitude?

Let’s see.

More from Lost Explorer’s journal:

“July 8, Day Two and I Hoped it was all a Dream

The morning came about 5 hours too soon. I couldn't sleep the night before.

Every time I closed my eyes the fear and anxiety flooded my thoughts no matter what position I was in.

Finally, at 3 a.m. I got up, walked downstairs with pen and notebook in hand and poured myself several glasses of wine.

I just wrote and wrote. Not too much made sense. One thought would trigger another.

Looking back over the entries, it strikes me that our lives are so complex now a days.

Everything is connected to everything else, like some sort of gigantic interdependent spider web.

So when one part of our lives changes it sets off a chain reaction, rippling out in all directions.

In the morning, I found myself dropping things and staring out into the distance in a mild state of shock.

2 Months Income and 9 Months Search

I couldn't concentrate.

I would do two or three things at once, bouncing from one partially completed task to another.

Everything was important for a moment until I'd panic thinking about something else.

Making the bed, stacking the dishes in the dishwasher ... simple things I had control over began to make me feel better.

Over and over one thought returned.

We had been doing so well financially compared to even a year ago when everyone else had been laid off.

And then boom -- now we have about 2 months of income and if the rule of thumb applies, between 8 and 9 months of job search. A month for every $10,000 of salary.

For the balance of the morning I found myself organizing my work files that had been quickly tossed into boxes.

This was my way of closing down a chapter quickly in my life. A way of integrating my accomplishments for use on my new journey.

Disorientation, Networking, and Self-Doubts

During my hastily departure, I grabbed the interoffice phone book, association listings, memos for resume material and my books.

While I sorted I jotted down my random thoughts and began to put them in priority order.

Because finances were on my mind I accomplished two things.

I updated a spread sheet of income and expenses for the July through December time period and I stood in line for 45 minutes at the unemployment line ... still in a mild state of shock with that head achy feeling like eye strain.

Out of the blue I heard, "Oh no, not you too."

Here was my third networking contact, counting the first two at work on my way out. Of all places down at unemployment.

She had a month's warning at the aerospace company. We exchanged phone numbers. I also arranged for my outplacement appointment and sorted through the severance details.

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