The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Friday, November 01, 2002

Future Work: Social and Economic Drivers

Chapter One: Basecamp

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

Journal of 2020 Foresight: So, you asked people from all walks of life – artists, lawyers, professors, human capitalists, IT professionals, executive management, marketing, finance, operations, sales, service, engineering – anyone and everyone -- to tell you which forces they foresaw in the future as having the most impact on their plans, right?

Pathfinder: That's right. In Basecamp, having already examined our current situation in light of past trends that influenced how well or how poorly earlier decisions panned out for our expedition members, we turned from the power of hindsight to the power of foresight.

Trailblazer: We simply asked a few questions to get the discussion going. What are the growing, brand new forces? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which are reversing themselves? What about the hidden "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future?

Here's the Top 100 countdown:

100 – There will be no national products or technologies, no national corporations, no national industries. (Reich)

99 – Global, multinational corporations operate as stateless entities always searching for the most productive environment in which to operate. (Reich)

98 – Improvements in teaching science will revolutionize learning (Cetron)

97 – Institutions will apply breakthroughs in individual cognition in education settings (Cetron)

96 – Learning environment will lose its importance: Individuals will learn more on their own; Learning places will be more dispersed; Age at what time things are learned will depend more on the individual (Cetron)

95 – Professions and artisans will find the body of knowledge to be mastered to excel in a particular area will preclude excellence in all areas (Cetron)

94 – The global economy will demand more independent specialists: For hundreds of special tasks; Corporations will turn to highly-specialized consultants (Cetron)

93 – Increase in number of those postponing retirement and increase in midlife career changes (Cetron)

92 – People will change careers an average of every 10 years (Cetron)

91 – Erosion of work ethic will negatively impact future corporate performance (Cetron)

90 - 81

What’s your take?

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