The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Friday, August 22, 2003

Springing Into Pagosa for Lifestyle and Community Fit with Trend-setting Neighbors

Chapter Three: The Outpost

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

“On October 14 (1803), (Meriwether) Lewis reached Louisville…. When they (Lewis and Clark) clasped hands on the Louisville waterfront, the historic partnership was actually formed. Eager to be on their way, they apparently had the keelboat piloted through the (Ohio River) Falls the next day and established their base camp as the Clark farm in Clarksville (Indiana). But then, for some reason, perhaps needing to further screen the recruits Lewis and Clark had gathered or perhaps needing to fix damage the keelboat may have sustained in passing through the Falls, they delayed setting off until October 26.”

James J. Holmberg

Journal of 2020 Foresight: Where is he? And how did you put the pieces together to solve the riddle?

Eagle: What was the first set of clues? He’s in a destination that the local Indians called “Healing Water “ for the thermal springs that became a popular spa in the 1800s. He says this place is known for the water that reaches 153 degrees Fahrenheit. It also heats some of the town’s buildings.

Explorer: We also know the location is surrounded by a national forest. The area enjoys abundant recreational activity supported by the melting snow flowing into summer lakes.

J2020F: You were stumped for a while trying to figure out something about “Birds of a Feather,” Father Serra, biting off more than you can chew and Red Ryder.

Explorer: But we remembered the swallows returning to Capistrano – San Juan Capistrano, near Dana Point in California. But Red Ryder doesn’t make sense and the last set of clues stumped us for a while -- “the basic math of howling in the water that runs both ways?”

Eagle: Remember when we discussed gold and silver mining and dividing the shares. Think about it. Where does water run both ways? At the Continental Divide. That’s the basic math.

J2020F; So the destination must be near the Continental Divide in the San Juan National Forest, but where?

Eagle: Well, we reviewed the winter ski resorts and considered the springs – as in Steamboat and Glenwood. But, I’m certain the destination is Pagosa Springs – about 20 miles from Wolf Creek. Let’s check out their descriptions.

J2020F: Or the place where there’d be howling in the waters.

Explorer: Here it is. “Covering 1.9 million acres in southwestern Colorado, lies the San Juan National Forest, with elevations in the forest range from 6,800 feet at Junction Creek to 13,000 feet at Wolf Creek near the Continental Divide, and over 14,000 feet at Mount Wilson in the Lizard Head Wilderness. Two US highways bisect the region -- US 550 cuts through the forest along the north / south, while US 160 divides along the east / west axis. Mountains, canyons, waterfalls and unusual landforms give life to wide variations of vegetation.”

Eagle: And the description for Pagosa Springs: “Surrounded by the San Juan National Forest, Pagosa enjoys abundant recreational activity supported by the melting snow flowing into summer lakes. For ski enthusiasts, a 23 mile trek brings you to Wolf Creek Ski Area on US 160 at the top of aply named Wolf Creek Pass. Year round recreational opportunities satisfy lovers of fishing, hiking, bicycling, rafting, hot air ballooning, skiing, ice-skating and snowmobiling. “

J2020F: But, what about Red Ryder?

Explorer: We’re not finished. Check it out. Fans of "Red Ryder” comic strip and western art enjoy Fred Harman Art Museum.

Eagle: And finally, “Named by local Indians for the thermal springs (Healing Water) Pagosa became a popular spa in the 1800s as well as a lumbering center. Not only known for the 153 degrees Fahrenheit water (which heats some of Pagosa's buildings) but, equally known for large snowfalls in the winter.”

J2020F: And does it make the innovation – growth list?

Eagle: You bet. There it is right there on the Colorado list: Basalt, Pagosa Springs, and Redstone.

Explorer: And, Pagosa Springs claims one of the more trend-setting neighborhoods. That indicates it has the potential to develop into a high appreciation real estate investment.

J2020F: So, you’re saying this little demonstration shows you can determine if a town is attracting people like you. Further, you can tell if the people who live there are ones you'd enjoy as neighbors. From an investment standpoint, you can tell if the town is attracting the trend setting lifestyles of the more affluent. If it is then, the area will enjoy a higher appreciation in real estate.

Explorer: That’s right. And it is very simple to check if you go to the Claritas PRIZM public website.

Eagle: All you need is a zip code. In the early days our original teams began their searches with zip codes supplied by the post office.

J2020F: So, if you plug in Pagosa Springs zip code into the Claritas PRIZM website it will spit out the neighborhood profiles? And then you can search its database for all the towns that match your preferred lifestyle?

Explorer: Yes and No. You can’t search it for free based on one of their profiles, like “New Eco-tobia,” a neighborhood profile in Pagosa Springs and on the trend-setting list identified by Harry Dent, such as:

Blue Blood Estates

Money and Brains

God’s Country

New Eco-tobia

Gray Power

Young Influentials

Eagle: Our trend-setting expedition has been comparing notes with each other and as a result can tell you which places in the West have one or more of those profiles.

Explorer: One reason the teams like the Claritas PRIZM profiles is that it divides them along two dimension, or an x-axis and a y-axis that mirrors to a large degree the matrix of the Do-What-You-Love scenarios. At one extreme along the density axis is Urban (high density) and at the other is Rural (low density). And the second axis, status, is anchored by elite (highest education, home value, occupation, and income) and poorest.

J2020F: OK, how about the first, Blue Blood Estates. From the name, I think I can guess, but where to they fall within the Claritas matrix?

Eagle: Well, they don’t have to live in congested, urban areas, so you find them in the elite suburbs. Statistically, these neighborhoods house a high concentration of the wealthiest in the United States. If you are familiar with southern California – you’d find them in La Jolla, Torrey Pines, and Escondido (San Diego county) and Newport Coast, Newport Beach, Corona del Mar, Huntington Beach, Irvine and Mission Viejo (Orange County).

Explorer: Unless you already live in one of those neighborhoods, it’s unlikely that for the rest of us, we’ll ever afford to call them our neighbors.

J2020F: What about Money & Brains?

Explorer: They’re part of the second most affluent groups of neighborhoods – those that live in more exclusive urban areas. Within the broad social group you expect to find the movers and shakers in entertainment, education, finance and business – executives and professionals running the show. Money and Brains neighborhoods, however, ring around a city on the fringes. You might find them as couples in their mid-50s living in townhomes and shopping at Nordstroms or renewing their passports.

Eagle: In addition to a zip code in Newport Beach and Huntington Beach in Orange County, they inhabit two Coronado neighborhoods in San Diego.

J2020F: I’m guessing you won’t uncover many God’s Country neighborhoods in downtown Los Angeles, right?

Eagle: You’re right. We already identified two towns with this neighborhood cluster living far outside major metropolitan areas– South Austin, Texas and Parker, Colorado. Both areas fit the “Executive Exurban” profile popular for white-collar professionals and managers in the mid-30 to mid-60s age range. They’re affluent, but not quite as wealthy as the Country Squires, also part of this Landed Gentry group.

Explorer: At last count, the expedition has discovered somewhere between 35 and 40 neighborhoods across the West – including Telluride and Copper Mountain, Colorado; and most of the better known ski resorts; Santa Fe, New Mexico, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, Page, Arizona; and of course, Lake Arrowhead.

J2020F: What about the next neighborhood – the New Eco-tobia?

Explorer: Another popular profile – just under 35 different neighborhoods have been identified in pristine areas of the Rockies and other small towns and remote exurbs. Similar to the Landed Gentry group of neighborhoods, this group, Country Families, to which the New Eco-tobia belongs have escaped the urban lifestyle. They work in industrial and agrarian occupations. They have above-average education and gravitate to high-tech industries in pristine areas of the West.

Eagle: While they fit into the mid-scale affluence category, they’re able to afford more, because their cost of living is lower than their counterparts in urban an suburban areas. You’ll find neighborhoods with these birds of a feather in Telluride, Estes Park, and the Springs – Steamboat, Glenwood, and Pagosa – all in Colorado.

J2020F: What about the next to last affluent profile, Gray Power. I’m assuming this is an older lifestyle with the financial wherewithal to live where they want, right?

Explorer: That’s right. They populate the Sunbelt Cities – like Palm Springs and Palm Desert in California. They’re moving into the 55+ gated communities with country club privileges. They favor smaller scale second or satellite cities rather than the suburbs of major metropolitan areas.

Eagle: This is probably the third most frequent profile uncovered in better towns – roughly 32 towns throughout the Western United States have been uncovered, including many of those already mentioned.

J2020F: So, that leaves us with Young Influentials, what the opposite of Gray Power?

Eagle: Well, both might attend a Rolling Stones rock concert. But, this cluster falls within the 25 to 44 year old age range with both singles and couples. Instead of living in second tier satellite cities, Young Influentials belong to the upper-middle income category found most in the suburbs of major metropolitan areas. They enjoy their dual incomes from managerial and professional jobs while choosing not to have children if married.

Explorer: In southern California, you see clusters of these neighborhoods along the gold coast from San Diego to Orange County – in San Clemente, Capistrano, Torrey Pines, Pacific Beach, Newport Beach, and Laguna Beach among others.

J2020F: What if I know the geographical region I want to invest in -- say Colorado -- is there a way to evaluate the risk and return along Dent's growth curve?

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