The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Wednesday, October 22, 2003

Three Overlapping Lifecycles: Individual, Community and Organization

Chapter Three: The Outpost

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

“From Fort Massac it was on to the Mississippi and upstream to the mouth of the Missouri. The captains (Lewis and Clark) may have thought the fates were against them in the late fall of 1803 when they were unable to continue up the Missouri. Their original plan had been to winter some distance up the Missouri. However, the lateness of the season and the refusal of the Spanish (administering Louisiana for France) to allow the explorers to ascend the river until it was officially United States property doomed that plan to failure.”

James J. Holmberg

Journal of 2020 Foresight: In an earlier interview one of you, I believe it was you Explorer, told us your neighborhood grew into the late growth and maturity phase. Because of a declining quality of life in what had been once considered a high-growth, resort-area suburb you voiced the desire to migrate out of California to another destination.

Explorer: That’s right. I’m not alone, if you’re familiar with the 2000 U.S. Census Data. For the first time, more people moved out of California than migrated into California between the years 1995 to 2000.

J2020F: Where did the majority move?

Explorer: Neighboring states to the north and east – Oregon (131,836), Nevada (199,125), Washington (155,577), and Arizona (186,151). Texas gained 182,789 former Californians, but lost 115,929 in a reverse trend – moving to California.

Eagle: Both Arizona and Washington joined the Texas reverse trend. Fewer than 50% of the number moving out of California relocated from Arizona to California – 92,452. Slightly more Washingtonians joined the migration – 95,469.

J2020F: That’s a staggering statistic – one of those dramatic and surprising trend reversals Trailblazer monitored at the Ridge.

Eagle: Sure. From the beginning of the 1800s when Lewis and Clark explored and charted the West, a broad migration pattern headed as far as it could go -- to California. For the last 60 years, since officials started tracking the statistics, more people each year acted on their “California Dreaming” impulses.

Explorer: This isn’t just a trend reversal, but as a scenario indicator, it signals something else is going on. Since the mid- 1990s most of the demographers – experts who track this kind of thing – had predicted outflows, but just assumed they would taper off.

J2020F: What, did they figure the causes were temporary and things would return to normal?

Eagle: Essentially yes. When the riots and recessionary climate got under control – and in the absence of a major natural disaster, like another big earthquake – they figured people would come to their senses and stay.

Explorer: But, more California signed up to join the other 22 million U.S. citizens who moved from one state to another.

J2020F: So, the latest U.S. census data indicates, what?

Explorer: Over 50% of those 22 million relocated to a different region, -- people left the Northeast and the Midwest for the West and the South.

Eagle: But in the West – those states like California up and down the Pacific Coast (even Alaska and Hawaii) lost roughly 725, 000.

J2020F: Where was the growth in the West, then?

Eagle: In the Mountain States, primarily.

Explorer: States like Nevada and Arizona, ones we already mentioned. But, also Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming shared in gains of roughly the same amount – 724,000.

J2020F: What were the key drivers triggering that mass exodus from California to the mountain states and others?

Eagle: Jobs. Cost of living. Slower-paced lifestyle. In the early 1990s a lot of people left Los Angeles. In the late 1990s, due to the dot.com bubble, more people from northern California hit the road.

Explorer: With more inviting economies in neighboring states to attract them, more Californians jumped in their cars and high-tailed it out of town.

J2020F: So, in summary, then your research about predictions and basic mobility trends hold up based upon the recent Census Data.

Eagle: And, what each of our Western-states learning expeditions discovers and shares with others in the BOF Knowledge Base, becomes even more valuable for the rest of us.

Explorer: All we need to consider is the sweet spot that describes what we’re looking for.

J2020F: Sweet spot?

Explorer: What preferences do we have given the current stage in our own individual lifespan? What do enjoy about our neighborhood and area given its lifecycle? And, if we choose to work for an organization or consult to an organization – what problems at its current lifespan do we enjoy solving?

Eagle: By overlapping those three lifecycles, anyone can zero in on opportunities to do what they love in a business, social, and quality of life climate that they’ll thrive in.

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