The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Monday, April 25, 2005

The Confluence of Eves Dropping, Geo-caching, and Zip Coding in the Volcano

Chapter Three: The Outpost

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

“Among the earliest entries in the journals that Clark kept is an account of a firefight with a party of Indians that left four men and four ‘squaws’ dead, and ‘2 children 16 horses and 100£ worth of plund'r’ in the hands of the frontiersmen. ‘There was no room for Indians in Jefferson's empire of liberty,’ writes Jones.”

Jonathan Kirsch

MAMMOTH CONSOLIDATED MINE, California. Yet another delay, but one well worth it. Trailblazer introduced us to a hobby none of us ever heard of before. We just had to check it out before hightailing it out of town on California Highway 395.

Journal of 2020 Foresight: Geocaching? I remember seeing Cache La Poudre River, north of Denver on the Overland Trail Map and recalling descriptions of fur traders who buried their furs and supplies for later use. Is that it? Where are we going? We’re not in Colorado, yet.

Trailblazer: You’re close. Where are we going? N 37° 35.701 W 118° 59.314, That’s where.

Pathfinder: Look, here I found it. Here’s the definition of geocaching.

Explorer: So it’s like a GPS backpacking geek’s idea of a good time – kind of a scavenger hunt?

Eagle: Instead of furs or supplies, the first geocache explorer marks the site with a container of interesting or unique-to-the-area items. And the other adventurers discover what’s there and login, right?

Trailblazer: Right, and now they record their journals on the web. Take this one, for instance: “From this Cache Site you are rewarded with an incredible view of Lake Mary, Mammoth Mountain and Mammoth Crest and just below the Cache Site you can see 2 of the remaining mine shafts of the Mammoth Consolidated Gold Mine.”

J2020F: So other than for the “indicator” similarities, how did you get hooked on geocaching.

Trailblazer: Actually I overheard someone talking about it a couple of tables away one morning when I was eating breakfast at The Stove. At first I thought they were talking about the zip codes and lifestyle clusters the California Expedition used to screen potential real estate investment, but I didn’t recognize any of the team members.

Eagle: Let’s see. From the original list we’ve got in the innovation appreciation stage just one -- Pescadero -- 94060. At the early growth stage we’ve got four: Oakhurst -- 93644, North Fork -- 93643, Healdsburg -- 95448 and Yreka -- 96097.

Explorer: What about on the mid-growth or late growth and early maturity appreciation lists?

Eagle: Nope. Three for mid-growth: Sonoma --95476, Mendocino -- 95460 and Morro Bay -- 93442, 92443. And, for late-growth … nope. Just four: Del Mar -- 92014, St. Helena -- 94574, Calistoga -- 94515 and South Lake Tahoe -- 96150. No Mammoth. Maybe on a California Mountain Resort list that would include Mammoth -- 93546, Running Springs -- 92382, Lake Arrowhead --92352 or Big Bear --92315

J2020F: So nothing by zip code – lifestyle indicators?

Trailblazer: Right, I knew it didn’t add up. Back then I knew Mammoth didn’t make the cut, although today it might be high on their list.

Eagle: I agree. Especially with the recent news that Dave McCoy’s remaining interest is up for sale.

Trailblazer: And, I knew Mono Lake wasn’t even close to making their list, so I jotted down the name Shaun somebody and the term Confluences and Googled them when I got back to my room.

Pathfinder: Curiosity got the better of you. What did you find?

Trailblazer: Confluences meant Degrees of Confluence and Shaun Fleming visited two countries and logged in 74 visits, complete with photos as part of the Degrees of Confluence Project. From Shaun’s web page I browsed the US tally, drilled down to the California sites and photos, and then zeroed in on Toulumne and Mono Lake -- and that last one brought me full circle to Shaun – and to these Sierras.

Pathfinder: I can see why you keep coming back to The Sierras. This whole area is magnificent. I can see how it’s hard to run out of things to do or to explore.

Trailblazer: And, look at these photos, courtesy of the Long Valley Observatory run by the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program to You can see the Caldera outline off in the distance.

Pathfinder: Volcano Hazards? Caldera?

J2020F: It’s hard to see here, but as we leave town and make our way down 395 we’ll see the ancient bronze and black lava flows. And then, we’ll head East through the lower tip of Nevada into Arizona.

Pathfinder: Lava flows?

Trailblazer: Here. Look at this map of Long Valley, and the photo gallery courtesy of “my friends” over at the Volcano Hazards Program.

Eagle: Is it me or is this a little bizarre? We’re flying down US highway 395 doing what, 73 miles an hour, in the middle of a Volcano Caldera? To our right out of the passenger’s side of the SUV we can see the massive jagged peaks of the Sierra Nevada.

Explorer: Yeah, it kind of shatters my mental images of volcanoes spewing lava in some remote site on an island somewhere.

Pathfinder: And, it’s mile after mile of those grey granite peaks with pockets of dark shadows from fractal clouds highlighting erosive cracks and boulders.

Trailblazer: You are right. This two-lane highway crisscrosses the crater of the ancient volcano. The further we continue down the valley and drive across the high desert, the more we’ll see gentle hills of iron color and piles of black frozen molten rock -strewn on our left and on our right.

J2020F: I have to admit it, that as much as I’ve complained about delays, I’m not quite ready to leave this area.

Trailblazer: Great segue. Should we break news to him? Don’t worry; you’ve got more time.

J2020F: What do you mean?

Pathfinder: We negotiated for more time on the back end of this journey.

Eagle: And that means we’re going in search of ….

J2020F: In search of?

Explorer: In search of -- N 37° 33.738 W 118° 40.838.

Trailblazer: Just a slight detour, not too far out of our way.

Pathfinder: Don’t worry; we’ll still visit Bishop, Big Pine, Independence, Lone Pine, and my personal favorite, Red Mountain.

Trailblazer: But, first a little side trip. Hold it, I think we turn up here about 500 yards at Tom’s Place and Rock Creek. We’ll set up a little basecamp and then check out a few caches.

Explorer: Think of it as our attempt to extend the Information highway into the wilderness here along roaring Rock Creek.

J2020F: I had little choice, since Pathfinder drove. And I must say I fell in love with the creek’s ice-cold turbulence slamming and cutting its way through boulders and fallen ancient logs as it has for eons. It provided the background symphony that made falling asleep early very easy. And it served as an early morning alarm at the crack of dawn.

Eagle: Morning. Did you notice how the source of the creek seems to surge down those granite-faced cliffs?

Pathfinder: Good morning. I picked up two of the three John Muir Wilderness area maps. So, I’m guessing we’re talking about the creek cascading down from Mt. Julius Caesar (13196 feet). Down from Mt. Dade and Abbott (13,704 feet). Down from Mt. Morgan and Morgan Pass (11104).

J2020F: Pretty impressive altitudes. Where are the others?

Eagle: They’re already into their early morning routines.

J2020F: Mine were realizing that for this cold, chilled Rock Canyon air, I’d need something warm to make it from my tent tour central meeting place. The first few things that crossed my mind were: Gather twigs for the fire. Get the water boiling for coffee. Wash the sleep out of my eyes.

Pathfinder: Yeah, a completely different internal monologue than the one I’m accustomed to back home. Mine continued with several: Where did we pack the ... (fill in the blanks)?

J2020F: Listen to that. Have you noticed how the constant roar, like a busy freeway, fills all the holes in our morning conversation?

Eagle: And I’ve notice a few mosquitoes floating lazily, waiting for their morning meal.

Explorer: We’re back. Just in time for more coffee and the day’s logistics.

Trailblazer: We’ve been monitoring the fast changing, chaotic weather patterns.

Explorer: And how on maps how a few lines on paper don’t necessarily translate into straight-forward trails.

Trailblazer: But, they’ve got the complete information about the elevations on a variety of trails throughout the Sierras, complete with tips, a legend, and icons for trail information.

Explorer: Yeah, but they don’t show the rocks and uneven terrain in the paths.

Pathfinder: Sounds like someone got up on the wrong side of the bed.

Explorer: You would to if he took you through a sea of sagebrush and you complemented that with a swarm of mosquitoes adding itchy areas to the scratches on your legs.

J2020F: As my wife’s Norwegian first cousin told me about surviving in harsh weather – “There is no such thing as bad weather (or terrain in this case), only bad clothes." Let’s get a move on. We’ve got miles to go before we sleep – Bishop, Independence, the Mojave Desert, Laughlin and the Grand Canyon!

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