The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

Archives
<< current

Monday, January 02, 2006

Predictable Crises and Awakenings for Idealists, Reactives, Heroes and Artists

Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

“I didn’t expect you to remember, though I really didn’t, so I don’t mind telling you again. Grandpa likes to sit on the porch at the Double E ‘cause when the sun comes up in the morning it’s very nice there, a good place to read the paper. There’s a family that lives here on the rancho; this song is about the family that lives there. There is a nice girl there, about 18 or 19, her name is Sun Green and she lives with her mom and dad, Earl and Edith Green.“

Neil Young & Crazy Horse “Greendale”

DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. The more things changed, the more they stay the same. It’s all happened before. Over generations patterns emerge. The same story is passed down from grand parents to children to grand children and so on.

Journal of 2020 Foresight: These are universal stories told across cultures, right?

Pathfinder: Yes, the main character is a hero or heroine who has found or done something beyond the normal range of achievement and experience. A hero is someone who has given his or her life over to something bigger than oneself.

J2020F: By choosing a new path or being forced on to one?

Pathfinder: Yes, either tasked with a physical or spiritual challenge. And the stories play out as a cycle of going and returning – usually through a metamorphosis – a transformation, like puberty or its spiritual equivalent, by which the hero has changed in a significant way.

J2020F: And today, our own personal life plays out over time within one or more communities.

Pathfinder: But, don’t forget we are not alone. Within the same timeframe at roughly the same age, we become -- and are influenced by -- our generation.

J2020F: As history molds generations, so do generations mold history?

Pathfinder: Right. We’ve had many conversations before about the Wild West and how warfare shaped North America throughout the past five hundred years.

J2020F: Manifest Destiny?

Pathfinder: One recent book by Fred Anderson claims
it was imperialism not liberty that triggered war after war -- including the French and Indian War (influenced originally by Samuel de Champlain), the American Revolution, Mexican-American War, and the Civil War.

J2020F: That’s how history (warfare) molds generations – what about the reverse?

Pathfinder: William Strauss and Neil Howe detected a pattern that four generational personalities -- Prophet (or Idealist), Nomad (or Reactive), Hero (or Civic) and An Artist (or Adaptive) – will experience in passages between an Awakening and a Crisis.

J2020F: Passages?

Pathfinder: They describe a High is an era between a Crisis and an Awakening. An Unraveling is an era between an Awakening and a Crisis.

J2020F: How does the theory work?

Pathfinder: A Prophet (or Idealist) generation is born during a High, spends its rising adult years during an Awakening, spends midlife during an Unraveling, and spends old age in a Crisis.

J2020F: A High? Give me an example.

Pathfinder: The most recent High was seen between World War II and The Consciousness Revolution – loosely known as the ‘60s – but lasting until the early ‘80s.

J2020F: And the Unraveling?

Pathfinder: The most recent Unraveling was seen between The Consciousness Revolution and the present, a time of and paradigm shifting.

J2020F: What about an Awakening?

Pathfinder: Younger adults are driven by inner zeal to become philosophers, religious pundits, and hippies.

J2020F: The anti-establishment crowd.

Pathfinder: During an Awakening civil order comes under attack from a new values regime. And, not just in the ‘60s when Baby Boomers tuned in, turned on and dropped out.

J2020F: What do you mean?

Pathfinder: Awakening eras included the Protestant Reformation (1517-1542), the Puritan Awakening (1621-1649), the Great Awakening (1727-1746), the Second Great Awakening (1822-1844), and the Missionary Awakening (1886-1908).

J2020F: And the Crisis?

Pathfinder: A Crisis is a decisive era of secular upheaval; a replacement of the old civic order with a new one.

J2020F: Back to warfare, I presume.

Pathfinder: Yup. As far back as the 15th century we have the “Wars of the Roses (1459 -1487), the Spanish Armada Crisis (1569-1594), the colonial Glorious Revolution (1675-1704), the War for American Independence (1773-1794), the American Civil War (1860-1865) ,and the twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II (1929-1945).”

J2020F: How these periods affect the Boomer's extended family?

Got Foresight?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.

3:32 PM