The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Thursday, July 20, 2006

Staking Your Claim: Four Corners for Thinking Inside the Box

Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

“On the very edge of Greendale, about a hundred yards from that sign that says ‘Leaving Greendale,’ there is a big billboard put up by the Greendale Chamber of Commerce. That’s where Officer Carmichael parked his police cruiser on that fateful day…. So Jed went to Jail. He’s in jail. He screwed up. He’s had it. I don’t think they’re gonna get him. I took note of that comment over there. This is a test. I don’t know if I’m gonna pass it or not. Someday, maybe today, but for a minute I’d like to stay in Greendale because Jed’s in jail, okay.”

Neil Young & Crazy Horse “Greendale”

DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. The “Passion and Place” scenarios boil down to doing what you love or hate in the same or different community. Simple on the surface, but gut wrenching below the surface -- if conditions change.

Journal of 2020 Foresight: So looking at the Boomers’ next chapter in their lives, these four scenarios help them, in what way?

Eagle: Over the years the scenarios evolved to a focus on fit.

J2020F: Fit? In what way?

Eagle: Finding a new, or remaining in, the right quality-of-life community that fit cherished lifestyle preferences and provided different degrees of real estate appreciation. I can’t tell you how many people I know who moved from Southern California to what they thought would be a great life in a rural community, only to return.

J2020F: I imagine what you’ve uncovered extends beyond Boomers to their families at different life stages, as well?

Eagle: That’s right. In fact in April of 2006 Century 21 published a press release that detailed differences in real estate buying habits among the generations – Boomers and their maturing children.

J2020F: In the beginning how did the scenarios add value?

Eagle: Opening up opportunities that didn’t exist before. We identified the convergence of technology and migration patterns that allowed somebody with an expertise to work in a community without a local customer base.

J2020F: And in their current evolution?

Eagle: We’ve constructed a knowledge base that matches sixteen sub-classifications – four each for each of the four scenarios – to resort communities and now, we’re opening up eight other categories.

J2020F: What kind of categories?

Eagle: Well, we recognized Boomers may have favorite regions in mind, so we now include Hawaii, Tropical locations, Canada, the West (of course), the East, Midwest and the South.

J2020F: And, these locations, do they fit the stages of real estate appreciation – innovation, early growth, mid-growth, late growth, early maturity and late maturity?

Eagle: Yes for Boomers looking for second vacation homes and retirement options, but also for members of their extended families who are looking for other profiles more closely aligned to their family, work and investment needs.

J2020F: Like, for instance?

Eagle: College and university communities, towns populated by more traditional or conservative homeowners, opportunities in revitalized factory areas, exurban growth areas, quaint and exclusive suburban villages, metropolitan urban areas with growth and lower cost of living or entertainment centers, smaller urban villages and emerging cities attracting home and business ventures.

J2020F: We may be getting ahead of ourselves. Why don’t you continue?

Eagle: Our scenarios combine location and passion. If you plan to do what you love in your current community, we call that scenario “Doing What You Love, Staying in Place.”

J2020F: What if you plan to do what you love in a new town that offers you the best in quality of life, climate and recreational activities?

Eagle: We named that scenario in “It’s Wired, Doing What You Want – Anywhere, Anytime,” -- the mobility story.

J2020F: Mobility story?

Eagle: Your lifestyle, business or income streams don’t require you to be next to your customers. You can operate anywhere in the world.

J2020F: So, those are the better scenarios.

Eagle: Right. The last two scenarios -- variations on doing what you hate, or at least dislike -- play out either in your current geographical location – “Trapped and Temporarily Permanent” or in a higher quality of life and lower cost of living community – “Struggling Lone Eagle, Overpriced for Local Market”.

J2020F: Are there any other differences between the last two?

Eagle: The lone eagles and the trapped and permanently temporary either embrace their independent identities or they long to be affiliated with an employer or organization.

J2020F: So, the trapped still have community ties developed over a long time – they miss their colleagues and co-workers at their old place of business.

Eagle: That’s right. The lone eagles who invent or create, don't mind long hours of solitude required to bring a new idea into being. But, the trapped and permanently temporary practitioners -- consultants who identify with a profession, for instance, often miss the camaraderie and collaboration often associated with a professional services firm, academic institution or research group.

J2020F: It also seems like the Lone Eagles want to move to a better community, while the Trapped were forced out of their vocation?

Eagle: Yes, the ones who have great difficulty in adjusting to their new situation are in their 50s who've devoted decades to mastering their profession only to find their current competency is obsolete, over-priced or no longer in high demand because of a disruptive technology or a faster, better, business method and process.

J2020F: But, what about those in the upper right hand corner who continue to do what they love in the more affluent neighborhoods? I want to know their secrets!

Got Knowledge?
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