The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Rediscover Your Drive Running Into the Sun

Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

"'A typical company has forty to fifty components,' (Laurie) Tropiano explained...'so what we do is identify and isolate these forty to fifty components and then sit down and ask (the company), 'How much money are you spending in each component? Where are you best in class? Where are you differentiated? What are the totally non-differentiated components of your business? Where do you think you have capabilities but are not sure you are ever going to be great there because you'd have to put more money in than you want? When you are done, said Tropiano, you basically have an X-ray of the company, identifying four or five 'hot spots.' One or two might be core competencies; other might be skills that the company wasn't fully aware that it even had and that should be build up."

Thomas Friedman, “The World is Flat”

DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. Has the mass migration of empty nesters begun? What’s in store for the Boomer extended family in this post 9/11 world? If you are shopping around for the ideal resort location where you can invest, change careers, retire, start or continue a new business, now is time for you to research the economy of your chosen geographical area, placing top priority of your time and effort on your first choice. In similar fashion investigate your second and third choices.

J2020F: What should I look for? When should I cash in my equity and move out? How can I protect my nest egg, while increasing my profits and margins in my business – or after I move how can I pick the right job or clientele?

Eagle: If you’re like most people bent on upgrading their quality of life your location should offer abundant open space, a village-like atmosphere to maximize quality of life and pleasant human interaction, and shared recreational, educational and cultural facilities.

J2020F: Is this the right time? Trailblazer cautioned us that after this boom ends, deflation is almost certain to ensue for at least a decade and possibly into the early 2020's.
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Eagle: He cites Dent’s projections and “silver-lining” approach to turning an economic threat into an opportunity – albeit a prolonged recession – depression.

J2020F: How?

Eagle: Dent says owners who decide to sell their homes at their maximum value, sometime before late 2008, will be able to buy excellent property at a lower price and lower interest rates once the deflation era begins.

J2020F: So there are some long-range trends in real estate that we should keep in mind?

Eagle: The first of three trends Trailblazer and I are monitoring is a broad migration pattern towards exurbs and small towns, many of which will continue to hold most of their value through the downturn.

J2020F: The second trend?

Eagle: A strong and consistent rise in retirement home purchases.

J2020F: Makes sense, but for how long?

Eagle: Trailblazer believes baby boomers will drive the market for this kind of property from 2006 into around 2030.

J2020F: What about the third long-term real estate trend?

Eagle: This one you want to take advantage of after late 2008 -- the rising demand for rental property in urban and suburban areas.

J2020F: Why?

Eagle: Trailblazer explained it this way to me. The most important insight here is that there are seasonal trends to monitor because they clearly favor some sectors of investments and disfavor others.

J2020F: Seasonal trends?

Eagle: Two very different booms and two very different busts that follow the same four-stage life cycle that new products and technologies do.

J2020F: Like the 80-year cycle in which new economies emerge and mature which occurs with every other generation?

Eagle: Yes. Trailblazer believes that Dent’s seasonal projections are correct in that these four " seasons" represent long periods of time wherein the fundamental economic trends will generally go in one direction

J2020F: So which season are we in and where are we headed?

Eagle: The second phase of the Growth Boom we're now in will continue until late 2008 or early 2009.

J2020F: So, now is time for you to research the economy of your chosen geographical area.

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