The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Friday, June 28, 2002

Learning Expedition – Answering a Call to Adventure

Chapter One: Basecamp

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

Journal Entry

All this “Game of Life” stuff got a little too much for me.

Find a way to win by: beginning when no goal is given; creating a purpose for my own journey; setting a course which also serves others; and creating better opportunities for those who follow.

Let’s just say, I was willing to suspend my critical thinking a little bit more. But, I really needed something more concrete.

By accident, I found another journal called, “Learning Expedition – Answering My Call to Adventure”. It lay dusty with cobwebs under my bed. I never would have seen it, if I hadn’t knocked my contact lens on the floor and had to get on my hands and knees to find it.

On page one I found a crude map drawn. A path connected four locations: Basecamp, Ridge, Outpost, Tribal Network. Somebody had scribble notes in the margins.

Basecamp. Map the expedition, a compelling vision of a desirable future, a survey of our past, and an analysis of our current situation.

Ridge. View the terrain ahead, locating threats and opportunities, shifting the load according to the expedition's assets and liabilities, finding landmarks along the way.

Outpost: Develop error-free strategy to travel light, gathering intelligence for an information advantage, trying initiatives to accomplish the most with a single thrust.

Tribal Network: Negotiate with influencers for resources, building scenarios and tactics for the best, worst, and most probable conditions.”

Now, we’re getting somewhere, I thought. But, where?

Again, from the learning expedition’s log.

“The foot prints lead out of this foggy mist through a narrow passage. You can't tell exactly where they lead -- somewhere out into the unknown.

Our leader, we've come to call him Pathfinder, says we'll be gone for several days before we come back. We're heading out to this place called Basecamp to make final preparations for our extended journey.

Pathfinder encouraged us to begin taking notes about our surroundings. Impressions, associations, images that pop into our head.

While this expedition won't last as long, he's asked us to begin looking forward -- at least 5 to 10 years out. And that far back.

The first thing that jumped out at me is all the craziness before and after the millennium passing – from 1999 to 2002 with Y2K, the presidential election, the dot bomb implosion, 9/11 terrorist attack, to Enron and Anderson ethics and governance crisis.

Historians and journalist describe the craziness as merely the transformation from one century to the next. Is a cycle playing out? Or, is all this uncertainty entirely new and unpredictable?

Pathfinder also asked us to jot down what we thought were safe predictions about the future. What we thought would absolutely come true. And then to list all the uncertainties -- stuff we weren't so sure about.”

The last entry tugged at me.

“For all those who read this and follow, Welcome to the crossroads. Where any path can take you to any destination. But, there is only one journey worth taking ... the one answering your own, unique call to adventure. What's your legacy? When will your journey begin?”

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