Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
Got Knowledge?
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Monday, November 17, 2003
350 Years of Trading: Missouri River Sources to San Francisco Bay
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“Native Americans this far up the river had never seen a black man before and York created a sensation. Dubbed Big Medicine by the Indians due to his uniqueness and believed spiritual power, this undoubtedly was a happy time for York. On this journey he had become an equal in many ways to his fellow explorers. He contributed to the success through his labors and talents and was respected for it. There was certainly an affection between the white men and this black man. To this was added the awe with which he was treated by Indians. In their eyes, he was superior to the men with white skins.”
James J. Holmberg
J2020F: We can see the flat farmland region of the state’s capital, Sacramento, as we approach the runway. We claim our baggage and scurry through the airport. Then we throw our luggage into a rented Suburban and take US 50 east. Where are we going? And, what’s this got to do with the Hudson’s Bay Company, Royal Dutch / Shell, and The Mother Lode?
Explorer: Let’s take your first question, well, first. If we thought Grey Owl had set up an Outpost in an innovation or emerging growth community, then we’d be heading to the towns we mentioned before.
Eagle: I don’t know why, but my hunch is he’s probably staying in a resort community at a more mature lifecycle – either mid- or late-growth. We’ll know more when we get outside of the capital and check our e-mail at a Starbucks with a T-Mobile wireless connection.
J2020F: What if it is mid-growth? Where would we be headed?
Explorer: Well according to what the California learning expedition contributed to the knowledge bank it could be any of the towns in the following regions: Sonoma (Wine Country), Mendocino (Northern California Coast), or Morro Bay (Central Coast).
J2020F: And, what about late maturity destinations?
Eagle: Then Grey Owl is more likely to be found in Del Mar (Southern Platinum Coast), St. Helena (Wine Country), Calistoga (Wine Country), or Lake Tahoe (Mother Lode / Comstock Lode).
J2020F: How long before we figure out our destination?
Explorer: About as long as it takes to finish our story.
Eagle: Let’s recap.
J2020F: Thomas Jefferson didn’t want the English to gain control over the lucrative western fur trade, especially after reading Alexander Mackenzie’s exploits. Europeans by sea and up the coast from Mexico, as well as, Scots and Canadians from the north, and American explorers and settlers from the east converged on the indigenous people in what today is coast of California, Washington and Oregon. And, roughly 100,000 Native Americans early inhabitants were nearly obliterated by European diseases, colonization, settlers and prospectors.
Eagle: Good summary. We’ll weave Hudson’s Bay Company, Royal Dutch / Shell, and The Mother Lode into our story to illustrate both the lifespan of a corporation, as well as, how the lifespan of towns, communities, and regions mirrors the chief means of providing economic value.
Explorer: We’ve already mentioned Arie De Geus, the author of “The Living Company: Habits for Survival in a Turbulent Business Environment.”
J2020F: Didn’t he discover that the average lifespan of a corporation is about four or five decades?
Explorer: That’s right. And, these are the companies that somehow survived the infant mortality rate that eliminates 40% of all companies in less than 10 years from their birth.
J2020F: So in terms of individual life spans, while we humans have learned to adapt and live for 75 years or more on average, there are only a few companies that are that old and flourishing. No wonder fewer and fewer workers will retire with a pension as a result of working at one company for their entire career.
Eagle: It’s as if the majority of large corporations suffer from learning disabilities – they somehow fail to adapt and evolve as the world around them changes.
J2020F: So most commercial corporations are dramatic failures – or at best, underachievers? How did De Geus come up with these conclusions and what about the Hudson’s Bay Company?
Explorer: Patience. During an industry crisis Royal Dutch/ Shell launched a research study to find out what other companies were doing with their business portfolios, so that a new diversification strategy could be launched, and more importantly, maintained.
J2020F: All they’d have to do is to look to the high fliers in Silicon Valley, right?
Eagle: Not exactly. Since the history of the Shell Group dates back to the 1890s, the executive sponsoring the strategic research only wanted data on companies older than Shell – those that had weathered some fundamental change in the world around them – “such that they still existed today with their corporate identity intact.”
Explorer: After much digging, the research group eliminated those that stood the test of time, but existed in name only – a brand, an office building or were a shell of their former selves – mere remnants of a glorious past.
J2020F: That doesn’t leave too many, right?
Eagle: De Geus says that criteria narrowed the field to 30 companies. Of the remaining 30 companies, 27 became candidates for more in-depth case study analysis.
J2020F: Give us some names.
Explorer: Well, worldwide the list included Anglo American Corporation, Booker McConnell, British American Tobacco, Daimaru, East India Company, Anthony Gibbs, Kennecott, Kounoike, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Pilkington, Rolls Royce, Rubber Culture, SKF, Siemens, Society Generale, Suez Canal Company, Sumitomo, Suzuki, Unilever, and Vestey.
Eagle: In North America, there were 3M, IBM, with DuPont, W.R. Grace, Kodak and one more.
J2020F: Let me guess, the Hudson’s Bay Company? But, what is the significance of all this to our story?
Explorer: According to De Geus, when Royal Dutch / Shell analyzed the 27 case studies for common, key strategic success factors, the researchers discovered that long-lived companies were sensitive to their environment.
J2020F: What?
Eagle: He means whether they had built their fortunes on knowledge (such as Dupont’s technological innovations) or on natural resources (such as the Hudson’s Bay Company’s access to the furs of the Canadian and North Western US forests), they remained in harmony with the world around them, according to De Geus.
Explorer: Think about it for a moment. De Geus writes, “As wars, depressions, technologies, and political changes surged and ebbed around them,they always seemed to excel at keeping their feelers out, tuned to whatever was going on around them.”
J2020F: OK. And that’s important because?
Eagle: De Geus says, “They did this, it seemed, despite the fact that in the past there were little data available, let alone the communications facilities to give them a global view of the business environment. They sometimes had to rely for information on packets carried over vast distances by portage and ship.”
Explorer: Look. The Hudson’s Bay Company, one of the oldest, still active companies in the world, was almost 200 years old when Canada was created in 1867, roughly 20 years after the California Gold Rush.
J2020F: So, they’ve been able to remain in business over roughly three and a half centuries?
Eagle: That’s right. They are so intertwined with Canadian history that since its inception in 1670, the Company controlled fully one-third of present-day Canadian territory.
Explorer: To give you an idea, that area, designated Rupert's Land, encompassed most of Northern Ontario and Northern Québec, all of Manitoba, most of Saskatchewan, the southern half of Alberta and a large part of the Northwest Territories.
J2020F: How did they get all of that control?
Explorer: It was granted by Royal Charter following the successful voyage of the Nonsuch to trade for beaver pelts with the Cree near James Bay.
J2020F: So they began with beaver pelts?
Eagle: Right. What began as a simple fur-trading enterprise evolved into a trading and exploration company that reached to the west coast of Canada and the United States, south to Oregon, north to the Arctic and east to Ungava Bay, with agents in Chile, Hawaii, California, and Siberia; a land development company with vast holdings in the prairie provinces; a merchandising, natural resources and real estate development company and, today, Canada's oldest corporation and one of its largest retailers.
J2020F: How did they navigate the technology, economic, political, and social transformations over their 330 years?
Eagle: It was not an uneventful progression. First, the French wanted the Company out. During its first decades, French and English warships battled for possession of Company trading posts.
Explorer: Don’t forget our friend, Mackenzie.
J2020F: So, the plot thickens?
Explorer: I’ll say. Powerful rivals emerged. The North West Company, principally Scottish-Canadian traders from Montréal, was the most formidable. The “Nor'Westers,” particularly under Alexander Mackenzie, and in defiance of the Royal Charter pushed north to the Arctic and in 1793, west to the Pacific.
Eagle: Today, most Canadians view Sir Alexander Mackenzie as a Scot who grew to become a Canadian hero, even though he failed his first time out.
J2020F: Why do you say that?
Eagle: A fur trader and explorer, Mackenzie became convinced that Cook's River, in present-day Alaska, could provide a water route from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific. Such a route — the mythical Northwest Passage — would provide a gateway to the vast trading markets of the Orient.
J2020F: But?
Eagle: Over 100 days later, however, Mackenzie's entourage arrived back at the fort with details of another route to the Arctic Ocean, not the elusive Pacific.
Explorer: Though this first trip aided in mapping the northern regions of the continent, Mackenzie remained determined to find the "Western Sea."
J2020F: What happened then?
Explorer: On May 9, 1793, Mackenzie, with nine others, packed into a 25-foot canoe at Fort Fork along the Peace River for a second voyage. This time, he succeeded, and announced his arrival on a rock at Bella Coola near the Pacific by painting the following words with a vermilion and grease mixture:
"Alexander Mackenzie, from Canada, by land, the twenty-second of July, one thousand seven hundred and ninety-three."
J2020F: But, what’s all this got to do with the Hudson’s Bay Company?
Eagle: In 1821 the North West Company merged into the Hudson’s Bay Company and all parties recognized the Company’s title to the land.
J2020F: And, the significance to California?
Explorer: For the next half century or so Company officers explored and traded vigorously throughout the west and north and pushed south in a wide area from the sources of the Missouri River to San Francisco Bay.
J2020F: And the significance for the lifespan of a region?
Eagle: Throughout history we can identify five economic offerings – commodities, goods, and services – the last two -- experiences, and transformations gaining strength today and tomorrow.
Explorer: We’ll go into each in more detail later on, since each offering yields five very distinct possibilities, with tremendous ramifications for business, employees, and customers.
J2020F: What's next, then?
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
6:10 PM
Thursday, November 06, 2003
Lewis & Clark, MacKenzie, Hudson's Bay Co., Father Serra & the Mother Load
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“On May 14, 1804, the Corps of Discovery set off up the Missouri. Keeping journals, collecting specimens, counciling with Native Americans, and laboring upriver consumed the party for the next five months. On August 20, Charles Floyd died; the only fatality the Corps suffered on their 8000-mile journey. By late October they had reached the Mandan villages in present central North Dakota. There they spent a very cold but enjoyable winter.”
James J. Holmberg
Journal of 2020 Foresight: Here we are in the air on Alaska Airlines, flying back from Cabo San Lucas at the land’s end of Baja California in Mexico. Soon we’ll be taking the connector flight from LAX to Sacramento, the California’s state capital. And then, we hit the road to reach our next Outpost Destination. What are we going to do and see next?
Explorer: Well, while it is true that more Californians left the state than migrated into the state for the first time in history, don’t get the impression that if you’ve been to LA or to San Francisco, you’ve seen and done it all.
Eagle: The California Learning Expedition likes to talk about trading places.
J2020F: Trading places? What, different strokes for different folks?
Eagle: No. They’re focusing on where you’d want to live, if you left Texas or Iowa and moved to California. Or chose to leave LA or San Francisco for another California community.Similar lifestyles range from Hollywood to Silicon Valley, up the coast to Portland and Seattle, then into Vancouver, Canada.
Explorer: If you wanted to relocate to an area with a lower cost of living, the expedition recommends innovation or early growth communities.
J2020F: Such as?
Explorer: Such as Pescadero (Northern Coast) and Oakhurst (Sierra Country), North Fork (Sierra Country),
Eagle: Don’t forget Healdsburg or Yreka.
J2020F: What do you mean by Northern Coast and Sierra Country?
Explorer: Most natives know that California isn’t just one region. It is a state of many regions: the Mother Lode Country, Wine Country, Redwood Country, Desert Country, Big Sur Country, and Eastern Sierra Country. Each region offers something unique for different people seeking preferred lifestyles.
J2020F: There’s a romance about California, isn’t there? From the Gold
Rush to the Dot.Com Bust – California has always meant a slightly off-kilter promise of the future – someplace where you could go to start over and chase your dreams.
Eagle: Sure. The glitz of gold gave way to glamour in Hollywood.
Explorer: But, contrast that life in the fast lane to the peace, inspiration and awe of the state’s natural wonders. From its highest point – Mount Whitney at 14,500 feet, to the lowest – Death Valley, almost 300 feet below sea level.
Eagle: And don’t forget that the Sierra Nevada mountain range runs parallel to the coast half the length of the state.
J2020F: So throughout the state’s regions you’ll find small quaint towns, towering redwoods, beaches, ski resorts, theme parks, wineries, missions and film studios?
Eagle: Talking about finding studios, wasn’t that one of the Grey Owl clues?
Explorer: Right. Before we left Cabo, remember? Paul Newman and Film Festival – that’s got to be Hollywood, doesn’t it?
Eagle: What about the other clues ---Ghosts in the River, Snow in Hell, and Million Dollars? Maybe they’re TV shows or Movies?
J2020F: Wasn’t there a “Ghosts in the River” Cowboy and Indian movie?
Explorer: Hmm. Not sure, but speaking of Indians – from the earliest days of California’s history, roughly 100,000 Native Americans were nearly obliterated by European diseases, colonization, settlers and prospectors.
J2020F: Which European countries over what time frame?
Eagle: Well, beginning in the middle 1500s Portuguese navigator Juan Rodriguez Cabrillo claimed California as the first European, followed shortly by Sir Francis Drake.
Explorer: Sebastian Vizcaino re-claimed California for Spain in 1602.
Eagle: In the 1700s we had a kind of land-shark-feeding-frenzy.
J2020F: What do you mean?
Eagle: In 1768 Spain, spurred on by King Charles sense that other countries wanted California for their own, colonized the region. He sent Gaspar de Portola on expedition from Mexico to San Diego.
Explorer: Two members of Portola’s expedition – Franciscan fathers – Junipero Serra and Fermin Lasuen – established the first 21 missions that by 1823 stretched along the 600 mile-long route from San Diego to Sonoma.
J2020F: Father Junipero Serra, why does that name seem familiar?
Explorer: Probably as a clue the last time we tried to locate Grey Owl – the swallows, remember?
J2020F: Of course, returning to the Mission in San Juan Capistrano near theKevin Bacon birds-of-a-feather-migration demonstration beginning with lifestyle clusters found in Dana Point.
Eagle: Presidios – military fortresses—sprang up in San Diego, Santa Barbara, Monterey, and San Diego. The first pueblo – or true town – was established in 1777 at the heart of what is Silicon Valley – San Jose. Los Angeles began in 1781.
J2020F: So, even before Lewis and Clark began their journey to map the Northwest Passage in 1804, Europeans had settled and colonized California?
Explorer: That’s right. And remember what spurred Thomas Jefferson into action after completing the Louisiana Purchase from France?
J2020F: Wasn’t it something about reading a Canadian explorer’s journal and exploits into what was Indian Country?
Eagle: Very good. Alexander Mackenzie became the first European north of Mexico to reach the Pacific Ocean on an overland route, beating Meriwether Lewis and William Clark who arrived at the coast in 1805.
J2020F: So, to the Europeans – the Portuguese, English and Spanish we add the two North Americans – Canada and the United States -- or rather the 13 colonies.
Explorer: Almost. Mackenzie was a Scotsman who published his account of his journey across Canada to the Pacific in 1792 to 1793. In 1802 Jefferson read the journal and didn’t like the conclusion.
J2020F: What do you mean?
Eagle: He means in his conclusion to the publication, the Scotsman urged the British government to seize control of the Oregon Country in order to dominate the lucrative fur industry of the region and trade with the Orient.
Explorer: Jefferson was an Anglophobe. Having just purchased a big chunk of land from the French the possibility that a rival and potential enemy would control this country and its trade pushed him to charter Lewis and Clark’s Corps of Discovery.
J2020F: So the lucrative fur industry and trade with the Orient drove the Europeans and North Americans to converge along the West coast?
Eagle: Tell him the rest.
J2020F: What do you mean?
Explorer: He means how Royal Dutch Shell and the Hudson Bay Company come into our story.
Eagle: And with Father Serra already mentioned, we can’t forget about the Mother Load, now can we?
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
9:26 AM
Tuesday, October 28, 2003
Outpost Itineraries: Kitchen Sinks and Wally World, or Routes Less Traveled
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“This obstacle to further progress in 1803 actually proved beneficial. Those months in the resource-rich vicinity of St. Louis and Cahokia allowed more information to be gathered, logistics worked out, and the men – by now some thirty in number – to be formed into a more disciplined and cohesive military party.”
James J. Holmberg
Journal of 2020 Foresight: What each of the Western-states learning expeditions discovers and shares with others in the BOF Knowledge Base, becomes even more valuable for the rest of the community. You both said it’s as easy as answering a few questions about the right fit. What preferences do we have given the current stage in our own individual lifespan? What do enjoy about your neighborhood and area given its lifecycle? And, if we choose to work for an organization or consult to an organization – what problems at its current lifespan do we enjoy solving?
Explorer: True. By overlapping those three lifecycles, anyone can zero in on opportunities to do what they love in a business, social, and quality of life climate that they’ll thrive in. Of course, shifting economic cycles, bursting bubbles and political events help or hinder our ability to capitalize on those opportunities.
Eagle: Which is the point for spending time in The Outpost – to gather more information, get logistics worked out, and to fine-tune both personal and collective strategies.
J2020F: In various conversations we’ve had, you’ve described The Outpost as a field location – a place where expeditions can explore various scenarios, monitor leading indicators, and figure out how to stretch limited personal resources to gain what they want.
Explorer: That’s right. Look, as good as Trailblazer is, no one can predict the future with 100% certainty. But, can you anticipate how the future will unfold, and if it unfolds as you anticipate, can you take advantage of opportunities other people overlook? Absolutely!
J2020F: So, that’s why you call them learning expeditions? They still have to identify clues needed to anticipate and counter threats overlooked from the Ridge's vantage point? A learn-as-you-go approach?
Eagle: Anything can happen and often does. We subscribe to the 80 – 20 rule. By fleshing out 4 scenarios, you can anticipate the critical 20% of threats that account for 80% of the obstacles to our success. But, as individuals we frequently come face-to-face with personal challenges to be our best, to stretch and to grow beyond our past. Some of those challenges stem from our weaknesses. Some of them result from practicing bad habits. Some of them come from not knowing what to do next.
Explorer: We like to say the purpose of The Outpost is for developing error-free strategy to travel light, gathering intelligence for an information advantage, trying various initiatives and finally, learning from your mistakes.
J2020F: The image I’m seeing is that of the family vacation. You can only take so much with you in your vehicle – more if it’s a SUV I suppose. But, with maps in hand, some printouts from the Internet and some travel brochures to guide you, you have an itinerary sketched out.
Eagle: But, the map isn’t the territory.
Explorer: No matter how much preparation you do -- talking to friends about places to stay, destinations to visit, and reservations suited to your budget – the journey doesn’t begin until you leave the safety of home behind – and hopefully, the kitchen sink.
J2020F: So the BOF Knowledge Base is a resource, kind of like the AAA with local travel guides to give you advice and provide alternative routes, so you reach your destination within your budget and the timeframe you set?
Explorer: Sure. On vacation your itinerary is your strategy for fitting in as many fun things as time and distance allows. We like to say at The Outpost, a great itinerary or a great strategy is an elegant solution to a complex puzzle.
Eagle: Only that complex puzzle isn’t static. It’s in constant flux. Your tire could blow out on a deserted stretch of highway in the desert. A flash flood could close the road between Vegas and your destination. A freak snowstorm at the continental divide could shut down traffic for hours and days.
J2020F: So that means the four scenarios you completed before you launched your journey into the “great vacation unknown” can provide alternative routes?
Explorer: Right. You’ll still get to your destination. And, you may end up discovering something better on that alternate route. By taking a road less traveled out of necessity, frequently you discover the one thing that you remember most about your vacation.
Eagle: We call that converting threats into opportunities.
J2020F: So, the Outpost is all about organizing your luck?
Explorer: In the sense that luck occurs when preparation meets opportunity.
Eagle: And, the thrill of a vacation adventure comes from undertaking the journey without full knowledge of the potential results.
J2020: As in Chevy Chase’s classic trip to Wally World?
Explorer: Well, you can certainly learn what to include in your “vacation scenarios” as a result of watching all the things that can go wrong!
Eagle: And, as each vacation sequel illustrated, Chevy didn’t learn from his past experience. He didn’t starve his weaknesses or reverse his failure habits.
J2020F: So, you’re saying if he had “learned-as-he-went” he would have invested his “strengths” and “resources” more wisely the next time around?
Eagle: Instead of an entertaining movie, he could have produced better and better vacation experiences shared by members of his family.
Explorer: Based upon his family’s values, interests, and preferences, he would have applied his past vacation experiences to a new strategy. If he did, as the strategy or itinerary unfolded, it would have increased everyone’s quality of life and health – both in the short and long term.
J2020F: I take it that learning expeditions in the Outpost take advantage of the knowledge and experiences made available by all the others who learned something from their itineraries, as they act on their own initiatives and tactics?
Eagle: Yes. For a vacation you usually canvass all the people planning to go with you to find out what they want to do. Then you figure out where you can go so everyone can experience the fun they anticipate. You ask around. You read travel articles. And, based on the information gathered and recommendations from friends and associates, you put your itinerary together.
Explorer: But, when the journey begins by backing out of your driveway in your overloaded vehicle you’re on your own. You make tactical corrections when you discover you underestimated the time it would take to get to your first night’s lodging. You strike up a conversation with other travelers at breakfast to find out as much as you can about the next leg of your journey.
J2020F: So, the strategy is the whole itinerary of your vacation. The initiative may be the route you take highlighted on the map. And the tactics depend on what you hear and experience along the way about the road ahead?
Eagle: After a few days into your vacation journey, you can tell more intuitively how well you are doing. You can guess which shortcuts to take and which side trips to avoid. You sense how far you can go without refueling, stopping for food and water breaks. You feel more comfortable loading and unloading your vehicle at each hotel.
Explorer: Once the initial stress of last-minute packing and the first long day in a cramped vehicle passes, you can settle into a more refreshing pace. As you travel you gain a much better understanding of your strategy. Everyone feels more comfortable pitching in as they learn to share a common vision of their trip. Even doing the mundane chores becomes part of the vacation experience. Overcoming obstacles stretches everyone, but also provides a bonding experience long remembered and shared after the vacation ends.
J2020F: Are you warning me about what to expect when we return from Cabo?
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
10:04 AM
Wednesday, October 22, 2003
Three Overlapping Lifecycles: Individual, Community and Organization
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“From Fort Massac it was on to the Mississippi and upstream to the mouth of the Missouri. The captains (Lewis and Clark) may have thought the fates were against them in the late fall of 1803 when they were unable to continue up the Missouri. Their original plan had been to winter some distance up the Missouri. However, the lateness of the season and the refusal of the Spanish (administering Louisiana for France) to allow the explorers to ascend the river until it was officially United States property doomed that plan to failure.”
James J. Holmberg
Journal of 2020 Foresight: In an earlier interview one of you, I believe it was you Explorer, told us your neighborhood grew into the late growth and maturity phase. Because of a declining quality of life in what had been once considered a high-growth, resort-area suburb you voiced the desire to migrate out of California to another destination.
Explorer: That’s right. I’m not alone, if you’re familiar with the 2000 U.S. Census Data. For the first time, more people moved out of California than migrated into California between the years 1995 to 2000.
J2020F: Where did the majority move?
Explorer: Neighboring states to the north and east – Oregon (131,836), Nevada (199,125), Washington (155,577), and Arizona (186,151). Texas gained 182,789 former Californians, but lost 115,929 in a reverse trend – moving to California.
Eagle: Both Arizona and Washington joined the Texas reverse trend. Fewer than 50% of the number moving out of California relocated from Arizona to California – 92,452. Slightly more Washingtonians joined the migration – 95,469.
J2020F: That’s a staggering statistic – one of those dramatic and surprising trend reversals Trailblazer monitored at the Ridge.
Eagle: Sure. From the beginning of the 1800s when Lewis and Clark explored and charted the West, a broad migration pattern headed as far as it could go -- to California. For the last 60 years, since officials started tracking the statistics, more people each year acted on their “California Dreaming” impulses.
Explorer: This isn’t just a trend reversal, but as a scenario indicator, it signals something else is going on. Since the mid- 1990s most of the demographers – experts who track this kind of thing – had predicted outflows, but just assumed they would taper off.
J2020F: What, did they figure the causes were temporary and things would return to normal?
Eagle: Essentially yes. When the riots and recessionary climate got under control – and in the absence of a major natural disaster, like another big earthquake – they figured people would come to their senses and stay.
Explorer: But, more California signed up to join the other 22 million U.S. citizens who moved from one state to another.
J2020F: So, the latest U.S. census data indicates, what?
Explorer: Over 50% of those 22 million relocated to a different region, -- people left the Northeast and the Midwest for the West and the South.
Eagle: But in the West – those states like California up and down the Pacific Coast (even Alaska and Hawaii) lost roughly 725, 000.
J2020F: Where was the growth in the West, then?
Eagle: In the Mountain States, primarily.
Explorer: States like Nevada and Arizona, ones we already mentioned. But, also Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming shared in gains of roughly the same amount – 724,000.
J2020F: What were the key drivers triggering that mass exodus from California to the mountain states and others?
Eagle: Jobs. Cost of living. Slower-paced lifestyle. In the early 1990s a lot of people left Los Angeles. In the late 1990s, due to the dot.com bubble, more people from northern California hit the road.
Explorer: With more inviting economies in neighboring states to attract them, more Californians jumped in their cars and high-tailed it out of town.
J2020F: So, in summary, then your research about predictions and basic mobility trends hold up based upon the recent Census Data.
Eagle: And, what each of our Western-states learning expeditions discovers and shares with others in the BOF Knowledge Base, becomes even more valuable for the rest of us.
Explorer: All we need to consider is the sweet spot that describes what we’re looking for.
J2020F: Sweet spot?
Explorer: What preferences do we have given the current stage in our own individual lifespan? What do enjoy about our neighborhood and area given its lifecycle? And, if we choose to work for an organization or consult to an organization – what problems at its current lifespan do we enjoy solving?
Eagle: By overlapping those three lifecycles, anyone can zero in on opportunities to do what they love in a business, social, and quality of life climate that they’ll thrive in.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
5:41 PM
Friday, September 05, 2003
Big City Incomes Discover the Up-And-Coming Boondocks
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“The group that left the Louisville-Clarksville area on October 26 (1803) was the foundation of the Corps of Discovery. It was this group that made some of the most important contributions to the success of the expedition. From this group came two of the initial three sergeants, three of the best hunters, and the Corps’ primary blacksmith and gunsmith…. A brief stay at Fort Massac on the lower Ohio (River) provided the opportunity to recruit one of the most important members of the party. George Drouillard, a half Shawnee-half French Canadian hunter, scout, and interpreter, earned high praise from Lewis and Clark.”
James J. Holmberg
Journal of 2020 Foresight: You told us that two learning expeditions forwarded information to Grey Owl so he could synthesize their discoveries into a knowledge base. In other words, sweet spot patterns begin to assert themselves. Can you give us an example?
Explorer: Let’s try using the Birds of a Feather (BOF) knowledge base a little differently than how we demonstrated the migration network from Dana Point (CA), Parker (CO) and Austin (TX) to find Pagosa Springs, Colorado.
Eagle: Why not show some of the synchronicity. Let’s see what happens when we compare the progression of real estate appreciation from innovation, early growth, mid-growth, through late-growth and maturity to the findings from the team profiling the state of Colorado.
J2020F: If I follow you, based on the trend-setting profiles, we should see more and more of the affluent profiles show up as we progress up the growth maturity s-curve, right?
Eagle: Yes, and remember, what we’re focusing on are the Resort Towns at the top of Harry Dent’s list of 9 categories that represent the best places to consider for a lifestyle change, a real estate investment, and or an entrepreneurial venture.
Explorer: Let’s start with Pagosa Springs, Colorado. When you search on its zip code in the Claritas PRIZM ‘s public website you see the complete profile as: Agri-business, New Eco-topia, Grain Belt, Blue Highways, Rustic Elders. Out of the 5 primary neighborhood profiles, only one – New Eco-topia – fits the trend-setting indicator.
J2020F: Are there any other high risk, high appreciation innovation towns in Colorado?
Explorer: Here’s Basalt, Colorado. When you search on its zip code you retrieve Agri-business (same as Pagosa Springs) and two others – God’s Country and Big Sky Families. Basalt includes a trend-setting profile – God’s Country. That is different than Pagosa Springs.
Eagle: Wait, here’s one more. This one has both of the trend-setters – God’s Country and New Eco-topia. And, like both Pagosa Springs and Basalt, shares the Agri-Business profile.
J2020F: What’s it called?
Eagle: Well, it looks like it is an area that includes Carbondale, Redstone and Marble, Colorado based on the shared zip code.
J2020F: So far, then, we’d want to find out more about Pagosa Springs, Carbondale and Basalt, Colorado. Now what about some towns that may not appreciate as much, but should be a little less risky?
Eagle: These would be the equivalent of a 10% breakout in Dent’s s-curve, right when the curve begins to accelerate at the early growth stage. I see Minturn, Red Cliff, Durango, and possibly Estes Park, though it hasn’t been confirmed.
J2020F: Do they show more evidence of trend-setting neighborhoods?
Explorer: Hmm. Interesting. The only one that doesn’t is Red Cliff. But it does have the Agri-business profile as does Minturn and Durango. Red Cliff’s three clusters include Country Squires and Big Sky Families (which show up in Carbondale, Minturn, Estes Park and Durango).
J2020F: So, does that mean we should rule out Red Cliff?
Explorer: Wait a minute. It might be a better place. Look at this.
Eagle: Country Squires. That happens to be an elite exurban family profile – what the Claritas folks call “big bucks in the boondocks” or what Dent describes as “Big City Income in Small Town – as in Lake Arrowhead, and Running Springs, California.
J2020F: Maybe Grey Owl should consider adding it to the list of Dent’s trend-setting profiles. What about the Estes Park profile?
Eagle: Wait, I’ll ask him. It looks like I’ve just received a message from him.
J2020F: Did he accuse you of cheating?
Explorer: Probably a new riddle. He doesn’t stay in one place too long. What is it?
Eagle: Paul Newman, Film Festival, Ghosts in the River, Snow in Hell, and Million Dollars.
J2020F: Doesn’t sound like Estes Park to me. Do we have to solve the riddle to figure out where to meet him?
Explorer: Yes.
J2020F: But we’re leaving Cabo tonight.
Explorer: Don’t worry.
J2020F: OK. Where were we? Oh, yes, Estes Park’s profile.
Explorer: Of the ones on the list it’s the only one without the Agri-Business neighborhood, but it has the most trendsetters: Gray Power, God’s Country, and New Eco-topia.
Eagle: And, it shares Big Sky Families with each of the previous towns, except Pagosa Springs.
J2020F: So the frequent profiles, so far seem to be Agri-business and Big Sky Families. What do we know about them?
Explorer: I’ll take Agri-business. These are the rural ranch and farm families, typically middle aged – from 45 to 64 age groups with a child under 18 still at home. What do they like to do, why go horseback riding, of course. And, like a lot of young California males these days, are likely to won a pick-up truck.
Eagle: Don’t forget other occupations include forestry, fishing, mining and other blue-collar employment. Agri-business cluster falls within Claritas’ Heartlander social group – families practicing self-sufficiency with a low cost of living.
J2020F: What about the other popular cluster, Big Sky Families?
Eagle: Basically, they are a younger version of Agri-business – mid-scale couples with kids under 18, but they’re in the 35 to 64 age groups. Not only a frequent profile in Colorado, but across most of the Western states including Hawaii. At last count, this profile pops up on roughly 33 different towns.
Explorer: They’re a part of the Country Families group that enjoy mid-scale affluence. Big Sky Families fall within the upper middle affluence category in the Claritas affluence categories. Other cluster members in this group include New Eco-topia, River City USA, and Shotguns and Pickups.
J2020F: Now, what about the last of the early growth towns, Durango?
Eagle: Well, it has two zip codes and the same trendsetter profile in both of them, New Eco-topia.
Explorer: And, it diverges from the pattern more than the others.
J2020F: What do you mean?
Explorer: It also has Big Fish, Small Pond. And Golden Ponds, Town & Gowns, Grain Belt, New Homesteaders, Mines & Mills, as well as the Big Sky Families we already profiled.
Eagle: Let’s come back to it later.
J2020F: Any more early growth?
Eagle: No, but you’ll begin to recognize the names of the mid-growth investment opportunities – Telluride, Steamboat Springs, Glenwood Springs, Beaver Creek, Crested Butte, Copper Mountain, Breckenridge, Keystone, and Snowmass.
J2020F: These are somewhere around Dent’s 50% growth rate? Shouldn’t we begin to see more affluent trendsetter profiles, then?
Explorer: Of the first three, Telluride, Steamboat Springs and Glenwood Springs all include God’s Country and New Eco-topia in their zip codes.
Eagle: I’m looking at Beaver Creek, Crested Butte (two different zip codes each with New Eco-topia), Copper Mountain, Breckenridge, Keystone, and Snowmass. All of them, except for Crested Butte as noted, include two out of three trendsetter combinations from Country Squires, God’s Country, and New Eco-topia.
Explorer: Breckenridge has all three. And look at one other pattern. All of them, except Copper Mountain are home to Big Sky Families.
J2020F: Is that it?
Explorer. It is for mid-growth, but we have one late growth or early maturity town – Boulder.
Eagle: In terms of trendsetters, out of Boulder’s 4 zip codes, one zip code includes our Country Squires profile. A second zip code has both Country Squires and God’s Country, and a third includes God’s Country.
Explorer: But compared to the rest, Boulder also diversifies into other, new neighborhood clusters: only one, Towns & Gowns matches the outlier – Durango.
J2020F: What are the other profiles?
Eagle: Greenbelt Families (shared with Parker), Upward Bound, Boomtown Singles, Middle America, Second City Elite, Middleburg Managers, and Smalltown Downtown.
Explorer: Towns & Gowns show up in 3 out of the 4 zip codes. And look at this over here. I know we’re focusing on Colorado, but Boulder’s pattern looks very similar to Reno, Nevada’s.
J2020F: Where does Reno sit on the real estate s-growth curve?
Explorer: Like Boulder, late growth or early maturity.
Eagle: Here are the matching profiles scattered across 10 zip codes in Boulder: Towns & Gowns, Smalltown Downtown, Middle America, Boomtown Singles, Middleburg Managers, God’s Country, Greenbelt Families, Second City Elite, Country Squires.
J2020F: So, for Colorado, those towns in the innovation and early growth attract Agri-Business profiles and Big Sky Families, together with the trend-setting New Eco-topia or God’s Country neighborhoods. In early growth, often both trendsetters show up, as does a more diverse set of profiles – including Towns and Gowns in more mature towns.
Eagle: And, don’t forget the trend-setting profile we just discovered – the Country Squires. Add them to the list if you’re considering a real estate investment.
Explorer: We also have to caution that Colorado, like California, has recently experienced a trend-reversal when contrasted to the over 200 year old migration pattern.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
7:28 AM
Friday, August 22, 2003
Springing Into Pagosa for Lifestyle and Community Fit with Trend-setting Neighbors
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“On October 14 (1803), (Meriwether) Lewis reached Louisville…. When they (Lewis and Clark) clasped hands on the Louisville waterfront, the historic partnership was actually formed. Eager to be on their way, they apparently had the keelboat piloted through the (Ohio River) Falls the next day and established their base camp as the Clark farm in Clarksville (Indiana). But then, for some reason, perhaps needing to further screen the recruits Lewis and Clark had gathered or perhaps needing to fix damage the keelboat may have sustained in passing through the Falls, they delayed setting off until October 26.”
James J. Holmberg
Journal of 2020 Foresight: Where is he? And how did you put the pieces together to solve the riddle?
Eagle: What was the first set of clues? He’s in a destination that the local Indians called “Healing Water “ for the thermal springs that became a popular spa in the 1800s. He says this place is known for the water that reaches 153 degrees Fahrenheit. It also heats some of the town’s buildings.
Explorer: We also know the location is surrounded by a national forest. The area enjoys abundant recreational activity supported by the melting snow flowing into summer lakes.
J2020F: You were stumped for a while trying to figure out something about “Birds of a Feather,” Father Serra, biting off more than you can chew and Red Ryder.
Explorer: But we remembered the swallows returning to Capistrano – San Juan Capistrano, near Dana Point in California. But Red Ryder doesn’t make sense and the last set of clues stumped us for a while -- “the basic math of howling in the water that runs both ways?”
Eagle: Remember when we discussed gold and silver mining and dividing the shares. Think about it. Where does water run both ways? At the Continental Divide. That’s the basic math.
J2020F; So the destination must be near the Continental Divide in the San Juan National Forest, but where?
Eagle: Well, we reviewed the winter ski resorts and considered the springs – as in Steamboat and Glenwood. But, I’m certain the destination is Pagosa Springs – about 20 miles from Wolf Creek. Let’s check out their descriptions.
J2020F: Or the place where there’d be howling in the waters.
Explorer: Here it is. “Covering 1.9 million acres in southwestern Colorado, lies the San Juan National Forest, with elevations in the forest range from 6,800 feet at Junction Creek to 13,000 feet at Wolf Creek near the Continental Divide, and over 14,000 feet at Mount Wilson in the Lizard Head Wilderness. Two US highways bisect the region -- US 550 cuts through the forest along the north / south, while US 160 divides along the east / west axis. Mountains, canyons, waterfalls and unusual landforms give life to wide variations of vegetation.”
Eagle: And the description for Pagosa Springs: “Surrounded by the San Juan National Forest, Pagosa enjoys abundant recreational activity supported by the melting snow flowing into summer lakes. For ski enthusiasts, a 23 mile trek brings you to Wolf Creek Ski Area on US 160 at the top of aply named Wolf Creek Pass. Year round recreational opportunities satisfy lovers of fishing, hiking, bicycling, rafting, hot air ballooning, skiing, ice-skating and snowmobiling. “
J2020F: But, what about Red Ryder?
Explorer: We’re not finished. Check it out. Fans of "Red Ryder” comic strip and western art enjoy Fred Harman Art Museum.
Eagle: And finally, “Named by local Indians for the thermal springs (Healing Water) Pagosa became a popular spa in the 1800s as well as a lumbering center. Not only known for the 153 degrees Fahrenheit water (which heats some of Pagosa's buildings) but, equally known for large snowfalls in the winter.”
J2020F: And does it make the innovation – growth list?
Eagle: You bet. There it is right there on the Colorado list: Basalt, Pagosa Springs, and Redstone.
Explorer: And, Pagosa Springs claims one of the more trend-setting neighborhoods. That indicates it has the potential to develop into a high appreciation real estate investment.
J2020F: So, you’re saying this little demonstration shows you can determine if a town is attracting people like you. Further, you can tell if the people who live there are ones you'd enjoy as neighbors. From an investment standpoint, you can tell if the town is attracting the trend setting lifestyles of the more affluent. If it is then, the area will enjoy a higher appreciation in real estate.
Explorer: That’s right. And it is very simple to check if you go to the Claritas PRIZM public website.
Eagle: All you need is a zip code. In the early days our original teams began their searches with zip codes supplied by the post office.
J2020F: So, if you plug in Pagosa Springs zip code into the Claritas PRIZM website it will spit out the neighborhood profiles? And then you can search its database for all the towns that match your preferred lifestyle?
Explorer: Yes and No. You can’t search it for free based on one of their profiles, like “New Eco-tobia,” a neighborhood profile in Pagosa Springs and on the trend-setting list identified by Harry Dent, such as:
Blue Blood Estates
Money and Brains
God’s Country
New Eco-tobia
Gray Power
Young Influentials
Eagle: Our trend-setting expedition has been comparing notes with each other and as a result can tell you which places in the West have one or more of those profiles.
Explorer: One reason the teams like the Claritas PRIZM profiles is that it divides them along two dimension, or an x-axis and a y-axis that mirrors to a large degree the matrix of the Do-What-You-Love scenarios. At one extreme along the density axis is Urban (high density) and at the other is Rural (low density). And the second axis, status, is anchored by elite (highest education, home value, occupation, and income) and poorest.
J2020F: OK, how about the first, Blue Blood Estates. From the name, I think I can guess, but where to they fall within the Claritas matrix?
Eagle: Well, they don’t have to live in congested, urban areas, so you find them in the elite suburbs. Statistically, these neighborhoods house a high concentration of the wealthiest in the United States. If you are familiar with southern California – you’d find them in La Jolla, Torrey Pines, and Escondido (San Diego county) and Newport Coast, Newport Beach, Corona del Mar, Huntington Beach, Irvine and Mission Viejo (Orange County).
Explorer: Unless you already live in one of those neighborhoods, it’s unlikely that for the rest of us, we’ll ever afford to call them our neighbors.
J2020F: What about Money & Brains?
Explorer: They’re part of the second most affluent groups of neighborhoods – those that live in more exclusive urban areas. Within the broad social group you expect to find the movers and shakers in entertainment, education, finance and business – executives and professionals running the show. Money and Brains neighborhoods, however, ring around a city on the fringes. You might find them as couples in their mid-50s living in townhomes and shopping at Nordstroms or renewing their passports.
Eagle: In addition to a zip code in Newport Beach and Huntington Beach in Orange County, they inhabit two Coronado neighborhoods in San Diego.
J2020F: I’m guessing you won’t uncover many God’s Country neighborhoods in downtown Los Angeles, right?
Eagle: You’re right. We already identified two towns with this neighborhood cluster living far outside major metropolitan areas– South Austin, Texas and Parker, Colorado. Both areas fit the “Executive Exurban” profile popular for white-collar professionals and managers in the mid-30 to mid-60s age range. They’re affluent, but not quite as wealthy as the Country Squires, also part of this Landed Gentry group.
Explorer: At last count, the expedition has discovered somewhere between 35 and 40 neighborhoods across the West – including Telluride and Copper Mountain, Colorado; and most of the better known ski resorts; Santa Fe, New Mexico, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, Page, Arizona; and of course, Lake Arrowhead.
J2020F: What about the next neighborhood – the New Eco-tobia?
Explorer: Another popular profile – just under 35 different neighborhoods have been identified in pristine areas of the Rockies and other small towns and remote exurbs. Similar to the Landed Gentry group of neighborhoods, this group, Country Families, to which the New Eco-tobia belongs have escaped the urban lifestyle. They work in industrial and agrarian occupations. They have above-average education and gravitate to high-tech industries in pristine areas of the West.
Eagle: While they fit into the mid-scale affluence category, they’re able to afford more, because their cost of living is lower than their counterparts in urban an suburban areas. You’ll find neighborhoods with these birds of a feather in Telluride, Estes Park, and the Springs – Steamboat, Glenwood, and Pagosa – all in Colorado.
J2020F: What about the next to last affluent profile, Gray Power. I’m assuming this is an older lifestyle with the financial wherewithal to live where they want, right?
Explorer: That’s right. They populate the Sunbelt Cities – like Palm Springs and Palm Desert in California. They’re moving into the 55+ gated communities with country club privileges. They favor smaller scale second or satellite cities rather than the suburbs of major metropolitan areas.
Eagle: This is probably the third most frequent profile uncovered in better towns – roughly 32 towns throughout the Western United States have been uncovered, including many of those already mentioned.
J2020F: So, that leaves us with Young Influentials, what the opposite of Gray Power?
Eagle: Well, both might attend a Rolling Stones rock concert. But, this cluster falls within the 25 to 44 year old age range with both singles and couples. Instead of living in second tier satellite cities, Young Influentials belong to the upper-middle income category found most in the suburbs of major metropolitan areas. They enjoy their dual incomes from managerial and professional jobs while choosing not to have children if married.
Explorer: In southern California, you see clusters of these neighborhoods along the gold coast from San Diego to Orange County – in San Clemente, Capistrano, Torrey Pines, Pacific Beach, Newport Beach, and Laguna Beach among others.
J2020F: What if I know the geographical region I want to invest in -- say Colorado -- is there a way to evaluate the risk and return along Dent's growth curve?
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
7:36 AM
Monday, August 18, 2003
Out of Dana Point, Parker and Austin with Doc Holliday and the Flying Norseman
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“(Meriwether) Lewis arrived in Pittsburgh on July 15th (1803). Over the next six weeks, he by turn pleaded with and threatened a local boat builder to construct the keelboat. Finally, on August 31, he set off down the Ohio (River) for his meeting with (William) Clark. If getting the keelboat built had been frustrating for the young explorer, actually sailing down the Ohio was perhaps even more so. The upper reaches of the river were lower than anyone could remember them being. The keelboat had to actually be dragged downstream in some stretches.”
James J. Holmberg
Journal of 2020 Foresight: Let’s recap a little bit. Last time we talked about “Doing What You Love” scenarios by taking advantage of “Birds of a Feather” (BOF), the working title for the knowledge base construction. And you figured out how to get around the use of the knowledge base to locate Grey Owl without “cheating” by demonstrating how it worked.
You said he could be almost anywhere in the world -- with the tropical resort team, or with “It’s Wired, Do What You Love Anywhere” team or the innovation-growth team, or the Idaho team, or the New Eco-topia team, or the 34 to 45 Age Group team, or the Elite Suburb team, or the Country Squires team, or the ….
Explorer: In fact, the last time we discovered his whereabouts it was in a destination high on the list of both the tropical resort team and the innovation-growth stage teams, remember?
Eagle: Oh, yeah. I’ve got the final clue here – the post card from somewhere in the Caribbean, here it is from the Turks and Caicos Islands.
J2020F: Back to the demonstration at hand. You said you’ve also discovered that you can track the BOF migration in 6 degrees or less to almost anywhere from Dana Point. And, I wanted you to “Kevin Bacon-ize,” as you call it, to find high real estate appreciation (innovation-growth) locations with Austin and Dana Point neighborhood profiles, right?
Eagle: Right, a list of higher risk, yet higher appreciation investment areas that would appeal to life-style profiles currently living in Austin and Dana Point.
Explorer: Let’s begin with the Austin neighborhood profiles. And, then we’ll compare them with the Dana Point profiles and see where we match.
Eagle: OK, for Austin we have profiles for South Austin, Austin in general, and for a suburb between south of Round Rock, midway between Leander and Austin. The first lifestyle neighborhood profile equates to what we’re calling our elite exurban families with average incomes of $65K, and with an age distribution between the mid-30s to mid-60s.
J2020F: Can you tell which expedition teams contributed the data?
Explorer: Well, it pops up on several lists – The Colorado expedition, the Ages 35 to 45 and 45 to 64 expeditions – these are the knowledge worker profiles -- well-educated executives, professionals, and technical white-collar workers. They have been called the “landed gentry” profiles by one demographic marketing company, Claritas. They prefer to live away from the city. Most families have more than one income. So, they’re affluent and enjoy spending money on an active, outdoor recreational lifestyle, and on remodeling their homes – or at least reading about it or watching the cable channels devoted to the homeowner.
Eagle: It looks like, if this fits a description of you, by applying our birds of a feather migration model, you’d be happy by moving to similar neighborhoods in Mammoth Lakes, Lake Arrowhead, and Lake Tahoe in California; Parker and Estes Park in Colorado; Santa Fe, New Mexico; Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; and Maui, Hawaii.
J2020F: Any similarities with Dana Point and the innovation appreciation growth profiles?
Eagle: Hmm. Looks like a couple of BOF migration paths take us there. The first is from Parker, Colorado to Lake Arrowhead, California that overlaps with the neighborhoods between Leander and Austin, Texas.
Explorer: This neighborhood profile came from the same two Age expeditions – 35 to 44 and 45 to 64 and the California expedition. With almost identical household income as the first lifestyle, the main difference is this shows up in the suburbs, because it is the married with children lifestyle. It is also one of 5 very affluent lifestyles living in the better suburb neighborhoods.
J2020F: So, I’d be happy in Lake Arrowhead, and of course in Parker, Colorado and Austin, Texas – where else?
Eagle: In California -- Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, and Irvine (south Orange County), Carlsbad and Encinitas (along the coast of north San Diego County) and San Marcos and Escondido (San Diego County exurbs); and Reno, Nevada.
Explorer: Notice he didn’t mention Dana Point yet, or the solution to Grey Owl’s riddle.
J2020F: And, I’m not certain which of these destinations qualify as an innovation-growth resort investment?
Eagle: Hey, I just got started. We’ve got another upscale profile – an empty nest lifestyle that makes the connection. Like the first two profiles, they remain current with newer technologies – all three profiles are likely to bank online. While also an affluent professional and management couple, these households bring home slightly less income – roughly $ 50,000.
Explorer: These recently childless couples show up on the mid-life and empty nest expeditions. In California you can find them in neighborhoods stretching along the ocean from Dana Point, to Laguna Beach, to Newport Beach and to Huntington Beach. They also pop up in the San Diego exurbs – San Marcos and Escondido.
J2020F: What can you tell me about the Lake Arrowhead area? Isn’t that the Kevin Bacon connection you found between Austin and Dana Point?
Explorer: Lake Arrowhead shows up on both the California expedition’s list and the mountain resort lists overlapping with Utah, California, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
Eagle: Here you go. It’s located in San Bernardino County in California. San Bernardino was settled by Mormons in the 1850s in what is now the largest county in the United States. It’s a gateway to the San Bernardino Mountain resorts of Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear Lake and Running Springs. Strict zoning laws have protected the appearance of Lake Arrowhead, a popular mountain resort town and a highlight of the scenic Rim of the World Drive. Fishing and boating on the lake are popular recreation pursuits, as well as winter recreation activities in nearby San Bernardino National Forest.
Explorer: When you search on San Bernardino National Forest, you find, "The forest encompasses the highest mountains in Southern California, including 11,502-foot Mount San Gorgonio. Some 114,000 acres are set aside as the Cucamonga, San Gorgonio, Santa Rosa and San Jacinto wilderness areas. In addition to the resort centers of Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear Lake and Idyllwild, there are campgrounds, picnic areas and six winter sports areas. Other recreational opportunities include hiking, skiing, horseback riding, fishing and hunting."
J2020F: Hold on. Did you say “Running Springs”? Now you’ve got me going. Do you think that might be where Grey Owl is? Wasn’t it some kind of springs? I know we ruled out Mammoth Lakes.
Eagle: Let’s check it out. Hmm. It’s got 5 neighborhood lifestyles that look promising. The first one is the same one we first discussed that connects Parker, Colorado with Austin and Lake Arrowhead. It shares the neighborhood profile with another famous springs – Steamboat Springs in Colorado, as well. Look, there are connections to some of the better Colorado ski resorts – Breckenridge, Snowmass and Beaver Creek. In Utah, look what pops up – Park City and Deer Valley. Even Sun Valley in Idaho and Incline Village in Nevada.
Explorer: Look at that. The second Austin profile connects Mammoth Lakes ski resort area with Running Springs, Incline Village, South Lake Tahoe, and Temecula (San Diego exurb) with several resorts in the Hawaiian Islands and Reno.
J2020F; You said 5 neighborhood lifestyles.
Eagle: Ah. Jackpot. This next profile connects to over 30 destinations. In terms of affluence, the household income equates to the empty nest profile, but unlike it, this one still has kids at home and is more likely to live in rural settings. What’s interesting, according to the expedition teams, is that because rural cost of living is less than the urban and suburban neighborhoods, it’s spending power rivals those with higher income households saddled with higher living costs.
Explorer: In the Claritas marketing database, isn’t this one of four lifestyle clusters making up the country group?
Eagle: Right. They’re found in more remote towns and exurbs. One of the other four country lifestyles described in the Claritas database, New Eco-topia also appears on the real estate investment expedition’s list.
J2020F: Does it show up as a neighborhood in Running Springs?
Eagle: No, but it does in neighboring Big Bear, and in Telluride and Durango, Colorado. It also gives us a few more springs, but they’re all in Colorado: Pagosa Springs, Steamboat Springs (already identified) and Glenwood Springs.
Explorer: The remaining Running Springs profiles fall within the Claritas “Rustic Living clusters. These neighborhood lifestyles enjoy a low cost of living, but they all have lower-middle household incomes earned as craftsmen and laborers in agriculture, mining, transportation and construction." Like Running Springs, neighborhoods attracting birds of a feather fitting these profiles can be found along the coasts, deserts and lake shores.
J2020F: Is a pattern beginning to emerge?
Eagle: Well, the other springs show up – Pagosa Springs, Steamboat Springs, and Glenwood Springs. And, we pick up Sedona, Arizona, and Las Cruces, Taos and Santa Fe in New Mexico.
Explorer: Hold on. The last Running Springs profile includes the three springs, Telluride and Sedona again.
J2020F: Do any of these ring a bell with the last set of clues -- “the basic math of howling in the water that runs both ways?”
Eagle: Let’s try Steamboat Springs. Look’s like, according to both the Colorado team and the mountain resort expedition teams, that the population grew about 3000 between 1999 and 2002 – from 6700 to 9800. The story told is James Crawford settled in the Yampa River Valley in 1874 in a cabin on the west bank of Soda Creek. The chugging of the hot spring near the river which shot mineral water 15 feet in the air sounded like a steam boat.
Explorer: And, some of those thermal waters heat hot mineral baths at the public pool. Known for skiing and ski jumping, thanks to the Flying Norseman – Norwegian Carl Howelsen since 1913, Steamboat became internationally known in the 1930s.
J2020F: I guess we can’t rule it out, right? How about Glenwood Springs?
Eagle: During the same time frame, Glenwood Springs has grown less dramatically – from 6,600 to 7,736, but it too has been known for it hot mineral springs.
Explorer: The Ute Indians enjoyed the mineral springs and natural vapor caves. So did the affluent neighbors who made their money from Colorado mining boom, who came by special train to pamper themselves in Glenwood Springs’ fashionable spa.
J2020F: Isn’t it also famous for the grave of Doc Holliday close by in Linwood Cemetery?
Eagle: Talking about colorful, nearby you’ll find Spouting Rock Creek, and Hanging Lake in Dead Horse Gulch.
Explorer: But do the math. I don’t think these two places add up as Grey Owl’s destination.
J2020F: Well, if I stepped into those springs, I think you’d find me howling. What’s left? It seems like Colorado has an abundance of both hot springs and ski resorts.
Explorer: Well, the Colorado expedition lists Aspen, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Purgatory, Silver Creek, Snowmass, Steamboat, Telluride, Vail, Winter Park and Wolf Creek.
Eagle: That’s it.
J2020F: What’s what?
Explorer: He thinks he knows where Grey Owl is.
Eagle: And, not only that, I believe he’s staying in one of the better real estate investment opportunities if you’re willing to take a risk for maximum appreciation.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
6:37 AM
Wednesday, August 13, 2003
Degrees of Kevin Bacon, Or Doing What You Love with Other Birds of a Feather
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“From March to June 1803 (Meriwether) Lewis spent time at the U.S. arsenal in Harper’s Ferry, Lancaster, and Philadelphia in securing arms, overseeing the design and construction of an experimental iron frame boat he dubbed ‘The Experiment,’ being tutored by the leading men of science and medicine of the day, and procuring supplies. Upon his return to Washington in June, Lewis invited his friend and former commanding officer, William Clark, to join him as an equal partner in the undertaking. After wrapping up his affairs, Lewis left Washington for Pittsburgh on July 5. He would not return to the capital city for three and one-half years.”
James J. Holmberg
Journal of 2020 Foresight: Both of you told me the initial learning expeditions began with Harry Dent’s list. The one that attracts individuals and businesses yearning for open, innovative, social and professional climates – the nine new growth areas in real estate. And, how the knowledge base can plot migration paths from one neighborhood to another throughout the West and to some resort islands.
Explorer: Grey Owl synthesized the first phase of the knowledge base from multiple expeditions – roughly a dozen. The working title of the experiment was “Doing What You Love with Birds of a Feather.”
Eagle: Speaking of which, couldn’t we use it to find out where Grey Owl is? We figured out swallows and Father Serra meant San Juan Capistrano, and we realized San Juan was the name of the National Forest …
J2020F: What do you mean?
Explorer: He means cheating. You see, the knowledge base is our choice of LAST resort. When we can’t put all of the clues together to come up with our destination answer. We know that he’s somewhere in the world with one or more expedition team members. He could be with the tropical resort team, or with “It’s Wired, Do What You Love Anywhere” team or the innovation-growth team, or the Idaho team, or the new eco-topia team, or the 34 to 45 Age Group team, or the elite suburb team, or the country squires team, or the ….
Eagle: In three clicks, we could probably use the clues to search the experience and research generated by the teams following Dent’s initial list and come up with the answer.
J2020F: You keep mentioning Dent’s list. What is it?
Eagle: Harry Dent’s brilliant. He researched a lot of the best places to consider for a lifestyle change, a real estate investment, and or an entrepreneurial venture.
Explorer: In priority order, from best to least, for finding all three in one place, he lists:
Resort Towns
Small College and University Towns
Classic Towns
Revitalized Factory Towns
Exurbs
Suburban Villages
Emerging New Cities
Large-Growth Cities
Urban Villages
J2020F: So what this means, is the knowledge base grows as members of learning expeditions explore the places which represent the best fit for their preferences?
Explorer: And make good on their commitment to make it better than it was when they began to use it.
Eagle: In the discovery phase, we’re more interested in connecting people together who share the same kinds of interests and preferences with each other, than we are building a sophisticated database. That will come later.
J2020F: Let me see if I get this right. This is more like mining knowledge, but using the rules of thumb, tools and resources that the miners themselves use instead relying on a sophisticated computer program?
Explorer: In a way. The knowledge nuggets each of the miners discovers are theirs. Unlike gold or silver mining in the California gold rush or in the Colorado towns, knowledge doesn’t lose its value when it is given away or divided into shares.
Eagle: Did you say divided into shares? Read back Grey Owl’s second set of clues.
Explorer: You mean something about “the basic math of howling in the water that runs both ways?”
Eagle: Basic math might refer to adding, subtracting, multiplying or dividing.
J2020F: Can we stay on track? So, you’ve been saying the purpose behind the knowledge base is to build a network of knowledge nomads? Can you explain how it works?
Eagle: Learning expeditions examine whether or not a new town or area fits -- the birds of a feather feature. You can determine if a town is attracting people like you. You can tell if the people who live there are ones you'd enjoy as neighbors. As they gather information to make their own decisions, they share what they learn with each other.
Explorer: As current and future expedition members investigate features about an area, using the knowledge base saves them time. Because of its community of tribes feature – the network of people – it also speeds up the process of making contacts and getting introductions.
J2020F: From an investment standpoint, how can you tell if the town will enjoy a higher appreciation in real estate?
Eagle: You’d have to find out if it is attracting the trend setting lifestyles of the more affluent. If it is then, the area fits your criteria. And, the good news is Grey Owl has synthesized a lot of intelligence gathering from several expeditions to help you decide.
Explorer: And, you’d want to examine your appetite for risk with the highest potential for appreciation – selecting a town in the innovation growth stage vs. an investment in a less risky, but with less appreciation potential that might be found in an emerging new city or late growth city.
J2020F: And you’re saying Grey Owl’s knowledge base helps you with your decision? Give me an example.
Explorer: Let’s see. How about one that demonstrates how the birds of a feather phenomenon cuts across several learning expeditions – each with their own shared objectives – and when synthesized yields better knowledge useful to the whole community?
J2020F: You can do that?
Eagle: Sure.
Explorer: Careful. He’s bending the rules.
J2020F: What do you mean?
Explorer: He’s just found a legitimate way to solve the riddle by answering your question.
Eagle: So?
Explorer: So, let’s see you pull this one off. You’re about to see the famous “6 Degrees of Kevin Bacon” in action!
J2020F: You mean how you can find a connection between any two famous celebrities through their direct and indirect association with a Kevin Bacon movie? As in, his commercial on T.V.?
Explorer: Yup, the statistical data has been around for years. The basic observation is that anyone can be introduced to any other person simply by asking a circle of friends. Time and time again introductions to that person can be arranged by referral in six or fewer contacts.
J2020F: So, the first degree represents your first request to a friend or relative, for instance. They refer you to a most likely contact within their circle of associates – the second degree. And that referral connects you to a third degree of probable gate-keepers, and so on?
Explorer: That’s right.
Eagle: Give me something to start with. What to you want to find? And I’ll ask some questions that will help me tap into some of the on-going expeditions so we can find the answer.
J2020F: OK. How about if I’m interested in investing in a place with high appreciation and it would have to appeal to someone living in neighborhoods in say, Dana Point or San Juan Capistrano – where you launched your original learning expedition – and say someplace else like Austin, Texas.
Eagle: Good. Now, what I’m going to do is take advantage of the past learning already in the knowledge base generated by teams investigating the top of Dent’s list – the resort towns, but at the innovation phase. Just let me fire up my laptop, here. And, you said, what else?
J2020F: Dana Point and San Juan Capistrano on the coast in south Orange County, remember?
Eagle: Right and also we want to dip into the “Birds of a Feather” (BOF) in Austin – right? Do you want to narrow it down? Where in Austin?
J2020F: OK, what’s Austin famous for? How about Dell computers? Let’s do that. Take a look at BOFs on the outskirts of Austin somewhere south of Round Rock, maybe midway between Leander and Austin. What do you show there?
Eagle: How about what looks like the Wells Branch area on the map?
J2020F: Perfect.
Eagle: Let’s see. I don’t think we’ve tried to Kevin Bacon-ize these areas before. But, here goes. “Trust the process, Luke.”
Explorer: Some times he gets overly dramatic. I can tell you from our experience that you played right into his hand. We’ve discovered we can track the BOF migration in 6 degrees or less to almost anywhere from Dana Point.
Eagle: Oh, great. Go ahead and steal my thunder!
Explorer: But, I’m not so certain he can solve Grey Owl’s riddle as well. This should be fun.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
8:23 AM
Thursday, August 07, 2003
Search for the New American Dream: Where in the World is Grey Owl?
Chapter Three: The Outpost
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
"After being galvanized to action by (Alexander) McKenzie, the president (Thomas Jefferson) put in motion the training of (Meriwether) Lewis in the scientific and medical arts of the day and made a January 1803 request to Congress to provide $2,500 for the expedition. The total bill for the journey actually was almost $40,000, but the benefits realized by the United States were many times greater."
James J. Holmberg
Journal of 2020 Foresight: While I had postponed it for as long as I could, I broke down and made contact with the real world. I promised I'd email the lion's share of my interviews to my editor, so I ran up quite a bill at the hotel's Internet cafe. For our last night in town, Explorer, Lone Eagle, and I walked up a dirt lined street and a short hill to the pink restaurant, Casa Rafael's, between the Hotel Hacienda and Marina Sol.
Explorer: Ah, this is the life, isn't it? It's real easy to fall in love with a tropical resort. Once your bio- rhythms synchronize with the pace of life and the prevailing trade winds, you can see why resorts top the list of nine types of places to invest in, can't you?
Eagle: Nice set-up for our surprise.
J2020F: What, a surprise appearance by Grey Owl?
Eagle: Not unless this is what the local Indians called "Healing Water" for the thermal springs that became a popular spa in the 1800s.
Explorer: So you received another email riddle?
J2020F: What are you talking about?
Explorer: Grey Owl's on the road. He visits as many of current and past expedition members as he can. We never know where his path will take him until we figure out all the clues he transmits. Anything else?
Eagle: Healing Water, healing water? Where in the world are there communities with geothermal springs? He says this place is known for the water that reaches 153 degrees Fahrenheit. It also heats some of the town's buildings.
J2020F: Well, when I spent time at Mammoth Lakes in the Eastern Sierras with Trailblazer and you could smell the sulfur odor on some of the ski runs, but I don?t think the hot springs outside of town match his description.
Explorer: What else?
Eagle: The location is surrounded by a national forest. The area enjoys abundant recreational activity supported by the melting snow flowing into summer lakes.
J2020F: Well, that could be almost anywhere, right. Any other clues about which one?
Eagle: Something about "Birds of a Feather," Father Serra, biting off more than you can chew and Red Ryder.
Explorer: Hmm. We may lose some points, but I?ll have to wait for the next set of clues.
J2020F: If not Grey Owl, then what?
Eagle: Oh, yeah. The surprise.
Explorer: Well, you weathered the interviews with David and Johnny over at the Pueblo Bonito Pacific Resort. We wanted to introduce you to our friends and hosts
J2020F: We met Rafael Arraut's wife and brother. I had heard rumors that the owners came to visit Cabo San Lucas some time in the 1980s and never left. They opened the restaurant in the early '90s. Rafael's brother mentioned the same 15-year period David did earlier, but when I asked him what he'd do after Cabo became too developed for his tastes, he said, "Move to Cuba."
Explorer: When it comes to resort areas, these guys like to get in at the innovation or early growth breakout stage.
J2020F: Rafael's brother regaled us with fishing stories on pristine beaches and ultra friendly people. It turns out his family is from Cuba, and that may be why, in addition to the six course meal, they offered Cuban cigars.
Eagle: Rafael told me on one of our earlier trips that they had grown tired of Hawaii, where they had run a restaurant for years.
J2020F: When we finished, Rafael's wife suggested we take the taxi, instead of walking down the hill above Medano Beach to the Marina and Sancho Panza for Jazz entertainment. There I summarized my interviews with David and John conducted initially in the Pueblo Bonita's lobby. I met David and John, who wanted to be called Johnny.
Explorer: Johnny's story sounded similar -- the golf and fishing drew him originally from Boston.
Eagle: You see a lot of midlife transitions -- a divorce with kids living with their mothers or a split from an empty nest. But, after a while of living in the Cabo fast lane, they settle down a little and find a line of business to fill some of the hours in the day.
J2020F: David said he came down from Toronto a few years ago and stayed. He bought a place next door to the resort, which will overlook a planned golf course. He told me that he and a partner had figured out and patented a bridge repair process that took off and allowed him to partially retire. He purchased 4 or 5 timeshares, including one of the two sister resorts.
Eagle: Did they take you on a tour?
J2020F: Sure did. David showed me how they built the place so no room will be blocked from the gorgeous Pacific Ocean and beach view -- although the surf is rough and no one can swim at their beach. But the meandering blue tiled pool with swim-up bar more than compensates for sacrifice. The rooms with luxurious tile and top of the line furnishings and expansive patios speak to their affluent market.
Explorer: So Johnny from Boston and David from Canada -- two refugees from the cold weather, what my retired parents in Florida used to call "snowbirds," migrated to Cabo.
Eagle: You can see the pattern begin to materialize. Mobility is a key factor that defines a neighborhood, since life stage changes often cause people to move. Those two birds of a feather move into a new neighborhood, while leaving behind an ex-wife with echo-boom kids in the former neighborhood.
J2020F: Life stage changes like what?
Eagle: The major ones. Like:
Leaving the nest,
Graduating from college,
Getting married,
Having children,
Being promoted,
Emptying the nest, and
Retiring.
Explorer: Don't forget, people will also move when their neighborhood no longer provides a good match in terms of affordability and needs.
J2020F: Now what about some positive event, like when relocating due to a job transfer?
Explorer: Just like those swallows that always come back to San Juan Capistrano, people usually find a neighborhood that is very much like the one they just left.
Eagle: Hold on, what did you just say?
Explorer: Which part?
Eagle: About the swallows and San Juan Capistrano. I think I know the name of Grey Owl's national forest.
J2020F: Isn't San Juan Capistrano near Dana Point in California -- where you all told me your core founding story around the beach bonfire?
Eagle: Of course. Father Serra. That's the place with several historic adobe buildings. Remember the restored 1895 Santa Fe Railroad station that is now an Amtrak terminal and restaurant? We ate there. The Mission San Juan Capistrano was founded in 1776 by Father Junipero Serra, right?
Explorer: Oh, yeah. I remember the waiter told us the mission is famous for the swallows that arrive in mid-March and leave in mid-October.
Eagle: Right. It's amazing. These remarkably constant birds fly approximately 6,000 miles from Goya, Argentina to nest and rear their young in San Juan Capistrano.
J2020F: So, what's the national forest's name?
Eagle: San Juan National Forest!
Explorer: I get it. Biting off more than you can chew -- hard to swallow. "Birds of a Feather," Father Serra -- I get the San Juan, but Red Ryder?
Eagle: We're close. Real close.
J2020F: And, the point to all of this is, what?
Explorer: People with similar cultural backgrounds, needs, and perspectives naturally gravitate toward each other.
Eagle: People choose to live in neighborhoods that offer affordable advantages and compatible lifestyles.
J2020F: And?
Explorer: And, with a little research and intelligence gathering you can use this information to your advantage.
J2020F: How so?
Eagle: If you are a marketing professional, you identify and locate customer targets.
J2020F: Is that because the characteristics that define a neighborhood change slowly.
Explorer: Right, the stability of a neighborhood comes from its fixed features: location, housing, transportation, schools, places of worship, and employment.
Eagle: Self-organization and self-perpetuation also figure into the stability of a neighborhood.
J2020F: So you can take advantage of the predictable nature of neighborhoods?
Explorer: Several marketing and demographic firms offer statistics on specific clusters of neighborhoods grouped into their similar demographic and behavioral characteristics.
J2020F: O.K. Let's see. You're saying with the self-organizing and self-perpetuating dynamics working, new neighbors will very likely resemble the old neighbors when they first arrive, because an unchanged neighborhood attracts similar types of people. Like Cabo San Lucas attracted David and Johnny from the cold North?
Eagle: Correct. But, specific events can significantly change the characteristics of a neighborhood, though. Like what might be occurring in David and Johnny's old neighborhoods.
Explorer: Right. Or as in my case, these can include:
New construction in or around the neighborhood,
Major regional economic adjustments,
Transition from households with children to ones that are empty nests,
Rezoning, and
Dramatically rising/falling land values.
J2020F: So, the neighborhood goes through life stages -- innovation, early growth, late growth, maturity, decline and renewal.
Eagle: That's right. But, remember neighborhoods progress through those stages over periods of years. So, neighborhoods are both stable and reliable as a key to consumer predictability because people need to feel as though they belong.
Explorer: And, neighborhoods have an image and attract certain types of people.
J2020F: So the result is shared behavior patterns -- the self-perpetuating pattern of "keeping up with the Joneses."
Explorer: You got it!
J2020F: So, going back to the positive reason for leaving one neighborhood and finding another because of a job transfer or promotion, what are the things most people look for in a new neighborhood?
Eagle: Well, that depends of preferences, but in general things like zoning laws, the job pool, housing stock, transportation networks, commercial infrastructure, public and private schools, and land values.
Explorer: Other factors, like economic opportunities, race and ethnicity, local politics, language, culture, ambiance.
J2020F: You mentioned those marketing databases. How do they categorize neighborhoods?
Explorer: They focus on a half a dozen factors, roughly. Like social rank (income, employment, and educational attainment), household composition (age, gender, and family structure) and mobility (length of residence).
Eagle: Don't forget ethnicity (race, foreign birth, ancestry, and language) urbanization (variations in urban, suburban, and rural populations and densities) and housing (own, rent, value, age, number of housing units).
J2020F: Now, this is all well and good, but I'm not a marketing professional. What can I do with all this information?
Explorer: If you're looking for the new American Dream and are willing to share what you discover along the way, you could join one of Grey Owl's 10 expeditions.
Eagle: That's right. They're building a shared knowledge base, available to anyone who wants to contribute to it.
J2020F: A shared knowledge base?
Eagle: The learning expeditions represent the discovery phase. So, they're sketching the rough outlines and patterns of knowledge useful to anyone else wanting to apply what the expedition already learned to their own personal quest.
Explorer: But, in return they have to find ways to make the shared knowledge base and the emerging expedition community better than it was when they joined.
J2020F: And, is this what you referred to at dinner -- a shared knowledge base about resorts topping the list of 9 types of real estate investments?
Explorer: Yes. The initial learning expeditions began with Harry Dent's list. The one that attracts individuals and businesses yearning for open, innovative, social and professional climates -- the nine new growth areas in real estate.
Eagle: If you're interested, we'll go into the expeditions in more detail, describing how the knowledge base can plot migration paths from one neighborhood to another throughout the West and to some resort islands.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
7:48 AM
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