The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Monday, August 18, 2003

Out of Dana Point, Parker and Austin with Doc Holliday and the Flying Norseman

Chapter Three: The Outpost

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

“(Meriwether) Lewis arrived in Pittsburgh on July 15th (1803). Over the next six weeks, he by turn pleaded with and threatened a local boat builder to construct the keelboat. Finally, on August 31, he set off down the Ohio (River) for his meeting with (William) Clark. If getting the keelboat built had been frustrating for the young explorer, actually sailing down the Ohio was perhaps even more so. The upper reaches of the river were lower than anyone could remember them being. The keelboat had to actually be dragged downstream in some stretches.”

James J. Holmberg

Journal of 2020 Foresight: Let’s recap a little bit. Last time we talked about “Doing What You Love” scenarios by taking advantage of “Birds of a Feather” (BOF), the working title for the knowledge base construction. And you figured out how to get around the use of the knowledge base to locate Grey Owl without “cheating” by demonstrating how it worked.

You said he could be almost anywhere in the world -- with the tropical resort team, or with “It’s Wired, Do What You Love Anywhere” team or the innovation-growth team, or the Idaho team, or the New Eco-topia team, or the 34 to 45 Age Group team, or the Elite Suburb team, or the Country Squires team, or the ….

Explorer: In fact, the last time we discovered his whereabouts it was in a destination high on the list of both the tropical resort team and the innovation-growth stage teams, remember?

Eagle: Oh, yeah. I’ve got the final clue here – the post card from somewhere in the Caribbean, here it is from the Turks and Caicos Islands.

J2020F: Back to the demonstration at hand. You said you’ve also discovered that you can track the BOF migration in 6 degrees or less to almost anywhere from Dana Point. And, I wanted you to “Kevin Bacon-ize,” as you call it, to find high real estate appreciation (innovation-growth) locations with Austin and Dana Point neighborhood profiles, right?

Eagle: Right, a list of higher risk, yet higher appreciation investment areas that would appeal to life-style profiles currently living in Austin and Dana Point.

Explorer: Let’s begin with the Austin neighborhood profiles. And, then we’ll compare them with the Dana Point profiles and see where we match.

Eagle: OK, for Austin we have profiles for South Austin, Austin in general, and for a suburb between south of Round Rock, midway between Leander and Austin. The first lifestyle neighborhood profile equates to what we’re calling our elite exurban families with average incomes of $65K, and with an age distribution between the mid-30s to mid-60s.

J2020F: Can you tell which expedition teams contributed the data?

Explorer: Well, it pops up on several lists – The Colorado expedition, the Ages 35 to 45 and 45 to 64 expeditions – these are the knowledge worker profiles -- well-educated executives, professionals, and technical white-collar workers. They have been called the “landed gentry” profiles by one demographic marketing company, Claritas. They prefer to live away from the city. Most families have more than one income. So, they’re affluent and enjoy spending money on an active, outdoor recreational lifestyle, and on remodeling their homes – or at least reading about it or watching the cable channels devoted to the homeowner.

Eagle: It looks like, if this fits a description of you, by applying our birds of a feather migration model, you’d be happy by moving to similar neighborhoods in Mammoth Lakes, Lake Arrowhead, and Lake Tahoe in California; Parker and Estes Park in Colorado; Santa Fe, New Mexico; Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; and Maui, Hawaii.

J2020F: Any similarities with Dana Point and the innovation appreciation growth profiles?

Eagle: Hmm. Looks like a couple of BOF migration paths take us there. The first is from Parker, Colorado to Lake Arrowhead, California that overlaps with the neighborhoods between Leander and Austin, Texas.

Explorer: This neighborhood profile came from the same two Age expeditions – 35 to 44 and 45 to 64 and the California expedition. With almost identical household income as the first lifestyle, the main difference is this shows up in the suburbs, because it is the married with children lifestyle. It is also one of 5 very affluent lifestyles living in the better suburb neighborhoods.

J2020F: So, I’d be happy in Lake Arrowhead, and of course in Parker, Colorado and Austin, Texas – where else?

Eagle: In California -- Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, and Irvine (south Orange County), Carlsbad and Encinitas (along the coast of north San Diego County) and San Marcos and Escondido (San Diego County exurbs); and Reno, Nevada.

Explorer: Notice he didn’t mention Dana Point yet, or the solution to Grey Owl’s riddle.

J2020F: And, I’m not certain which of these destinations qualify as an innovation-growth resort investment?

Eagle: Hey, I just got started. We’ve got another upscale profile – an empty nest lifestyle that makes the connection. Like the first two profiles, they remain current with newer technologies – all three profiles are likely to bank online. While also an affluent professional and management couple, these households bring home slightly less income – roughly $ 50,000.

Explorer: These recently childless couples show up on the mid-life and empty nest expeditions. In California you can find them in neighborhoods stretching along the ocean from Dana Point, to Laguna Beach, to Newport Beach and to Huntington Beach. They also pop up in the San Diego exurbs – San Marcos and Escondido.

J2020F: What can you tell me about the Lake Arrowhead area? Isn’t that the Kevin Bacon connection you found between Austin and Dana Point?

Explorer: Lake Arrowhead shows up on both the California expedition’s list and the mountain resort lists overlapping with Utah, California, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

Eagle: Here you go. It’s located in San Bernardino County in California. San Bernardino was settled by Mormons in the 1850s in what is now the largest county in the United States. It’s a gateway to the San Bernardino Mountain resorts of Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear Lake and Running Springs. Strict zoning laws have protected the appearance of Lake Arrowhead, a popular mountain resort town and a highlight of the scenic Rim of the World Drive. Fishing and boating on the lake are popular recreation pursuits, as well as winter recreation activities in nearby San Bernardino National Forest.

Explorer: When you search on San Bernardino National Forest, you find, "The forest encompasses the highest mountains in Southern California, including 11,502-foot Mount San Gorgonio. Some 114,000 acres are set aside as the Cucamonga, San Gorgonio, Santa Rosa and San Jacinto wilderness areas. In addition to the resort centers of Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear Lake and Idyllwild, there are campgrounds, picnic areas and six winter sports areas. Other recreational opportunities include hiking, skiing, horseback riding, fishing and hunting."

J2020F: Hold on. Did you say “Running Springs”? Now you’ve got me going. Do you think that might be where Grey Owl is? Wasn’t it some kind of springs? I know we ruled out Mammoth Lakes.

Eagle: Let’s check it out. Hmm. It’s got 5 neighborhood lifestyles that look promising. The first one is the same one we first discussed that connects Parker, Colorado with Austin and Lake Arrowhead. It shares the neighborhood profile with another famous springs – Steamboat Springs in Colorado, as well. Look, there are connections to some of the better Colorado ski resorts – Breckenridge, Snowmass and Beaver Creek. In Utah, look what pops up – Park City and Deer Valley. Even Sun Valley in Idaho and Incline Village in Nevada.

Explorer: Look at that. The second Austin profile connects Mammoth Lakes ski resort area with Running Springs, Incline Village, South Lake Tahoe, and Temecula (San Diego exurb) with several resorts in the Hawaiian Islands and Reno.

J2020F; You said 5 neighborhood lifestyles.

Eagle: Ah. Jackpot. This next profile connects to over 30 destinations. In terms of affluence, the household income equates to the empty nest profile, but unlike it, this one still has kids at home and is more likely to live in rural settings. What’s interesting, according to the expedition teams, is that because rural cost of living is less than the urban and suburban neighborhoods, it’s spending power rivals those with higher income households saddled with higher living costs.

Explorer: In the Claritas marketing database, isn’t this one of four lifestyle clusters making up the country group?

Eagle: Right. They’re found in more remote towns and exurbs. One of the other four country lifestyles described in the Claritas database, New Eco-topia also appears on the real estate investment expedition’s list.

J2020F: Does it show up as a neighborhood in Running Springs?

Eagle: No, but it does in neighboring Big Bear, and in Telluride and Durango, Colorado. It also gives us a few more springs, but they’re all in Colorado: Pagosa Springs, Steamboat Springs (already identified) and Glenwood Springs.

Explorer: The remaining Running Springs profiles fall within the Claritas “Rustic Living clusters. These neighborhood lifestyles enjoy a low cost of living, but they all have lower-middle household incomes earned as craftsmen and laborers in agriculture, mining, transportation and construction." Like Running Springs, neighborhoods attracting birds of a feather fitting these profiles can be found along the coasts, deserts and lake shores.

J2020F: Is a pattern beginning to emerge?

Eagle: Well, the other springs show up – Pagosa Springs, Steamboat Springs, and Glenwood Springs. And, we pick up Sedona, Arizona, and Las Cruces, Taos and Santa Fe in New Mexico.

Explorer: Hold on. The last Running Springs profile includes the three springs, Telluride and Sedona again.

J2020F: Do any of these ring a bell with the last set of clues -- “the basic math of howling in the water that runs both ways?”

Eagle: Let’s try Steamboat Springs. Look’s like, according to both the Colorado team and the mountain resort expedition teams, that the population grew about 3000 between 1999 and 2002 – from 6700 to 9800. The story told is James Crawford settled in the Yampa River Valley in 1874 in a cabin on the west bank of Soda Creek. The chugging of the hot spring near the river which shot mineral water 15 feet in the air sounded like a steam boat.

Explorer: And, some of those thermal waters heat hot mineral baths at the public pool. Known for skiing and ski jumping, thanks to the Flying Norseman – Norwegian Carl Howelsen since 1913, Steamboat became internationally known in the 1930s.

J2020F: I guess we can’t rule it out, right? How about Glenwood Springs?

Eagle: During the same time frame, Glenwood Springs has grown less dramatically – from 6,600 to 7,736, but it too has been known for it hot mineral springs.

Explorer: The Ute Indians enjoyed the mineral springs and natural vapor caves. So did the affluent neighbors who made their money from Colorado mining boom, who came by special train to pamper themselves in Glenwood Springs’ fashionable spa.

J2020F: Isn’t it also famous for the grave of Doc Holliday close by in Linwood Cemetery?

Eagle: Talking about colorful, nearby you’ll find Spouting Rock Creek, and Hanging Lake in Dead Horse Gulch.

Explorer: But do the math. I don’t think these two places add up as Grey Owl’s destination.

J2020F: Well, if I stepped into those springs, I think you’d find me howling. What’s left? It seems like Colorado has an abundance of both hot springs and ski resorts.

Explorer: Well, the Colorado expedition lists Aspen, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Purgatory, Silver Creek, Snowmass, Steamboat, Telluride, Vail, Winter Park and Wolf Creek.

Eagle: That’s it.

J2020F: What’s what?

Explorer: He thinks he knows where Grey Owl is.

Eagle: And, not only that, I believe he’s staying in one of the better real estate investment opportunities if you’re willing to take a risk for maximum appreciation.

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