The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Friday, August 01, 2003

Toasting Lewis and Clark in Cabo -- Where the Land Ends and the Fun Begins

Chapter Three: The Outpost

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

"On August 31, 1803, Captain Meriwether Lewis set sail down the Ohio River in a fifty-five foot keelboat with a temporary crew and some young men on trial. His destination was the Falls of the Ohio. It would be in Louisville, Kentucky, where he would rendezvous with his partner in discovery, William Clark, and the men he had recruited. And it would be from Clarksville, Indiana Territory, that they would continue down the Ohio. Their destination: the Pacific Ocean."

James J. Holmberg

Journal of 2020 Foresight: "Whatever you do, don't sign anything," the groom's neighbor told me the weekend before at the wedding reception 15 miles from Newport Beach on the Pacific Ocean. "Not only can you save on the transportation to and from the airport, they'll give you free activities and some cash, too." So I anticipated meeting Oscar. I paid $75 as a deposit returned to me two days later following the timeshare presentation.

Lone Eagle: "Oscar, let us relax for one day, and then we?ll join you for breakfast at the Pueblo Bonito on Sunset Beach, ok"?

J2020F: Except for the cable station broadcasting spring break from the Giggling Marlin and Cabo Wabo, I don't know too much about Cabo, and I?m a little confused. There's the sign to San Jose del Cabo in one direction once we get out of the airport area, and Cabo San Lucas in the opposite. Where do we go?

Eagle: Down to the tip of the Baja peninsula -- Cabo San Lucas. Both destinations make up the Los Cabos area of Baja California Sur.

J2020F: On the plane down here I read we're in a tropical paradise less than 1000 miles from the U.S. Mexican border. The groom's neighbor vouched for the relaxed atmosphere, great food and drink "where the land ends and the fun begins -- where you can golf, fish, snorkel, swim or dive, kayak, surf or sail."

Eagle: All of that is true, but still a long way from the days of the original beachfront resort -- the Hotel Hacienda Beach Resort, in a sleepy little fishing village.

J2020F: What do you mean?

Eagle: In five years the number of hotels rooms available has doubled.

J2020F: So, that's what you meant when you said we'd talk about how to apply Harry Dent's Innovation (.1%, 1% and 10%), Growth (10%, 50%, and 90%) and Maturity (90% to 99.9%) model to investments?

Eagle: That's part of it -- using his growth model as guidelines for investing in a portfolio of tangible and intangible assets. The word on the street estimates it will take 15 years before Cabo hits the world-class resort development status. But a lot has happened already.

J2020F: Like what?

Eagle. Well, The Puerto Paraiso entertainment Plaza, situated on the Cabo San Lucas marina, is nearing completion and encompasses 50,000 square meters, and already houses many new stores and restaurants. Fine hotels and quality resorts such as Sol Melia Hilton, marquis Playa Grande, Pueblo Bonito and others have build new resorts or expanded their current facilities to meet the demands of increased tourism.

J2020F: Do those examples qualify as signposts or indicators to monitor?

Eagle: Oh, right. You're referring to the last step in the scenario process Trailblazer described on the Ridge.

J2020F: We discussed how rehearsing the future for the HR Executives revealed applications they hadn't thought of, and led to the identification of internal growth and external industry indicators to monitor. Depending upon how the indicators changed, the HR executives could trigger shifts to either an innovation or efficiency initiative for their organization.

And, if you had targeted an organization as a potential employer or as a client, knowing those indicators could give you a get a leg up on the competition.

But, we didn't find out how you and Lost Explorer rehearsed the future, and what indicators you tracked.

Eagle: Well, let's just say you came to the right place.

J2020F: You mean you're going to reveal the secrets?

Eagle: No, I mean we're here -- the Villa del Palmar Resort and Spa.

J2020F: Great!

Eagle: Why don't you check in and then meet me at the lower pool bar, it's still 2-for-1 happy hour. We can relax and continue our conversation. The lobby is over there. See that nine-story structure? It's an atrium with a waterfalls, salt-water aquarium and seashell chandelier. The lobby's just inside. You can't miss it.

J2020F: So, then we'll continue with the 2020 Foresight signposts and scenario indicators.

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