Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Monday, January 20, 2003
Warm, Resort Migration Shift Driving the Next Real-Estate Boom
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
Top one hundred trends:
100-91, 90-81, 80-71, 70-61, 60-51, 50-41, 40-31, 30-21, 20-11
10 – By 2008 stocks will outperform bonds and real estate investments in exurban, small-town, and resort-town properties should appreciate modestly. (Dent)
9 – From 2008 to 2020 – 2030: the next Great Depression signaling the end to suburban and large-city real estate, as well as commercial real estate outside of small towns. (Dent)
8 – By 2006 PCs will reach 70 to 90% of all households. (Dent)
7 – The Internet will reach 90% penetration of urban and suburban households by 2010. (Dent)
6 – The networked organization – companies that truly run from the customer back – will dominate. Savvy leaders will view every customer as a market and every employee as a business. (Dent)
5 – Work will return to customer focus “(as opposed to an emphasis on functional skills), the resurgence of small, dynamic work teams, and more value placed on creative, right-brain, entrepreneurial skills.” (Dent)
4 – Basic innovation in communication technologies is allowing more people to relocate their homes to small towns and exurbs, and telecommute to business. (Dent)
3 – The baby boomers are moving into their vacation-home-buying years, which, in combination with the first trend, will stimulate demand for property in attractive resort towns. (Dent)
2 – The echo baby-boom generation is now moving into its household formation years, which will stimulate demand for apartments and rental property in the cities, and has already caused commercial property in these areas to appreciate, (Dent)
1 – There is a broad geographic migration towards areas of the country with warmer climates. You can expect the first three trends to be accentuated in the southwestern United States. (Dent)
What’s your take? There are an infinite number of stories that we could tell about the future. Our purpose is to tell those that matter, that lead to better decisions.
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
12:23 PM
DNA Construction Kits, Hydrogen Hybrid Autos
Chapter One
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Chapter Two
Chapter Three
Chapter Four
Top one hundred trends: 100-91, 90-81, 80-71, 70-61, 60-51, 50-41, 40-31, 30-21
20 – Around 2020, real advances begin to be made in the field of biological computation, where billions of relatively slow computations, done at the level of DNA, can be run simultaneously and brought together in the aggregate to create the ultimate in parallel processing. (Schwartz & Leyden)
19 – By about 2005, animals are used for developing organs that can be donated to humans. Super productive animals and ultra hardy, high-yielding plants bring another veritable green revolution to countries sustaining large populations. (Schwartz & Leyden)
18 – So-called DNA computing looks as though it will bring about big advances in the speed of processing sometime after 2025 - certainly by the middle of the century. (Schwartz & Leyden)
17 – Once the realm of science fiction, nanotechnology, this microscopic method of construction becomes a reality in 2015. (Schwartz & Leyden)
16 – Scientists and engineers figure out reliable methods to construct objects one atom at a time. Among the first commercially viable products are tiny sensors that can enter a person's bloodstream and bring back information about its composition. (Schwartz & Leyden)
15 – By 2005, technology previously confined to aircraft's onboard electric systems successfully migrates to automobiles. These cars use natural gas to power the onboard generators, which then drive the electric motors at the wheels. (Schwartz & Leyden)
14 – They also make use of super strong, ultra light new materials that take the place of steel and allow big savings on mileage. (Schwartz & Leyden)
13 – Then comes the third and final stage: hybrids using hydrogen fuel cells. The simplest and most abundant atom in the universe, hydrogen becomes the source of power for electric generators - with the only waste product being water. No exhaust. No carbon monoxide. Just water. (Schwartz & Leyden)
12 – Within 10 years, there are transitional hydrogen car models that extract fuel from ordinary gasoline, using the existing network of pumps. (Schwartz & Leyden)
11 – By 2010, hydrogen is being processed in refinery-like plants and loaded onto cars that can go thousands of miles - and many months - before refueling. The technology is vastly cheaper and safer than in the 1960s and well on its way to widespread use. (Schwartz & Leyden)
10-1
What’s your take?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2003 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
7:29 AM
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