Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
The Journal of 2020 Foresight
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Finding Your Best Fit: Healthy, Wealthy and Wise Choices
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“He was always getting turned down. When the Devil cleaned Earl’s glasses he laid them down there by the easel and he left. Then Earl came in the next day, put on his glasses and started painting stuff he’d never painted before. Suddenly, he was painting this picture of this guy in a red suit with red shoes and kind of a Panama hat with a red hatband on it, holding a sign that said ‘Alaska’ on it, like he was hitchhiking.”
Neil Young & Crazy Horse “Greendale”
DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. Examples abound across the western region of the United States for each of the four Baby Boomer futures.
Journal of 2020 Foresight: How about some examples of locations fitting each scenario throughout the West?
Eagle: You'll find “Staying Put, Doing What You Love” neighborhoods in California: in late growth Del Mar and coastal exurb Carlsbad (the Winner's Circle and Executive Suite lifestyles of the Elite Suburbs the Affluentials social group), in early maturity Calistoga (also Winner's Circle and Gray Power which got reclassified from the Second City Society to Middleburbs) and on the San Diego Coast in Coronado -- at the San Diego’s urban gold coast – with Money and Brains and the Young Literati lifestyles of the Urban Uptown social clusters.
J2020F: Anywhere else?
Eagle: A lot of our Boomer friends like Nevada.
J2020F: O.K. What’s in Nevada?
Eagle: As if you didn’t already know. You'll find the Elite Suburbs again (Winner's Circle) The Affluentials again (Executive Suites, Pools and Patios and Kids & Cul-de-Sacs) in late maturity Reno together with two Second City Society, two more Affluentials and five Second City Centers, now simply known as City Centers, lifestyle neighborhoods according to multiple zip codes.
J2020F: Where do you go if you are a Struggling Lone Eagle?
Eagle: I go home.
J2020F: I meant ….
Eagle: I know what you meant. You look for the Working Towns in our original research (reclassified as Middle America), Heartlanders (Middle America) and Rustic Living communities. In California you might choose maturing growth Morro Bay ( Golden Ponds and Old Milltowns lifestyles in the Rustic Living clusters and (now a lifestyle segment) Heartlanders in Middle America Blue Highway and Back Country Folk neighborhoods in the Rustic Living cluster.
J2020F: How about in the Southwest – say Arizona or New Mexico?
Eagle: If you like Arizona -- then consider emerging growth Yuma, maturing growth Sedona and innovation Bisbee.
J2020F: And New Mexico?
Eagle: In New Mexico, check out innovation Silver City, Angel Fire and Ruidoso or emerging growth Las Cruces, maturing growth Taos or late maturity Santa Fe.
J2020F: In Colorado?
Eagle: How about innovation Pagosa Springs, the emerging growth towns of Durango, Minturn and Red Cliff or the maturing growth communities of Telluride, Steamboat Springs, Glenwood Springs or Crested Butte.
Eagle: In Utah -- the innovation towns of Moab, Boulder and Escalante.
J2020F: How about a different scenario? Say the Trapped and Permanently Temporary scenario?
Eagle: Here’s where we’re doing some updating. Our original research classified neighborhoods based on the previous Claritas PRIZM categories.
J2020F: O.K. What do you have today?
Eagle: Towns that might fit the “Trapped and Permanently Temporary” scenario include Urban Cores, Micro-City Blues, (many of the former Second City Blues cluster) and Inner Suburbs.
J2020F: How many towns in the West pop up the most?
Eagle: Across the west the three more popular lifestyles belong to the former Second City Blues Cluster. They include Smalltown Downtown -- 10 towns, Family Scramble -- 10 towns, and Hometown Retired. Many of these have been updated and reclassified by Claritas to Micro-City Blues.
J2020F: So, these are the most frequent – Smalltown Downtown and Family Scramble? Give us some examples.
Eagle: You'll find those Nevada neighborhoods in medium growth Carson City and late maturing Reno; in New Mexico in emerging growth Las Cruces and late maturity Santa Fe; and in Idaho in medium growth Coeur d'Alene and early growth Bend, Oregon.
J2020F: If I get this straight, while these towns may differ in climate and recreation, the one thing they have in common is a social group and lifestyle profile that cuts across different states.
Eagle: Right. If the Smalltown Downtown lifestyle profile found in the Second City Blues Cluster fits you, then chances are the towns I just named would be a better fit for you than any others you might be considering.
J2020F: Armed with this insight about me and about these neighborhoods, I’d want to compare them on other factors that are important to me.
Eagle: That’s right. But, according to the “Birds-of-a-Feather-Flock-Together” principle, you’ll find more happiness concentrating on a short-list that matches your profile.
J2020F: Great. Well, I’m really interested in finding out more about the “Wired-Less Love” scenario. What about the three core tribal clusters populating that scenario – the Landed Gentry, Country Comfort (Families) and some of the Middle America (former Exurban Blues)?
Eagle: How about in Nevada, Colorado or Utah?
J2020F: I’m all ears!
Eagle: First in Nevada, you'll find Country Squires (of the Landed Gentry) in emerging growth Elko, maturing growth Carson City, late maturity Reno and late maturity Tahoe / Inclined Village.
J2020F: Where in Colorado?
Eagle: In early growth Minturn and Red Cliff, in medium growth Steamboat Springs and Beaver Creek and three late maturity towns -- Breckenridge, Boulder and Snowmass.
J2020F: Just as I expected. What about Utah?
Eagle: You probably won’t be surprised to learn they show up in late maturity towns of Park City and Deer Valley and Sun Valley in Idaho.
J2020F: If you’re looking for a vacation or second home in a resort community, how can you compare tradeoffs
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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