Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
The Journal of 2020 Foresight
Saturday, July 29, 2006
Live, Love, Work and Play in Four Wealthy Dream Communities
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“Wow! That’s the wrong guitar, I can’t do that. I’m trying to remember what key this is in. I put them down, it’s got big numbers and letters so I can see them, not that I’m like Grandpa. But who cares what chapter this is. Only people on the Internet. You people will have to get tapes of other shows, well I don’t have to talk to you directly, you’re not here. I’m trying to adapt to technology … 2K3, here we are.”
Neil Young & Crazy Horse “Greendale”
DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. As communities and neighborhoods in them move slowly though their lifecycles, even the American Dream suburbs mature, become over developed or are over run with smog and congestion. Ever been stuck in traffic for an hour in the middle of Santa Barbara on the weekend?
Journal of 2020 Foresight: Describe the four sub-stories in the “Staying Put --Doing What You Love” scenario.
Eagle: For years in this scenario Boomers living in these neighborhoods – in the upper right hand corner where passion and local geographical area intersect --enjoyed the affluently elite American dream.
J2020F: In the Claritas PRIZM NE classification system, these neighborhoods are described as?
Eagle: As Uptown Urban and Elite Suburbs.
J2020F: How do you refer to them?
Eagle: Simply as “Affluently Elite.” It’s as if they’ve cornered a wealth-generating system. They find a safe haven for high margin income, pay for a high cost of living, accumulate peak real estate appreciation, and live in a secluded, secure and mature community.
J2020F: Why do I feel a “but” coming?
Eagle: But in their fifties, top executives and highly paid professionals fall victim to corporate restructuring, mergers and acquisitions.
J2020F: Unless they’re the ones doing the restructuring, merging and acquiring.
Eagle: And, realistically they’ve got employment contracts, so they won’t be running out of money any time soon. The bottom line? They have time to discover what they really want to do next.
J2020F: Still, they must have a high cash flow burn rate in these guarded exclusive enclaves.
Eagle: Yes, for those who choose to stay, the reality is that number of available slots at the top of the corporate towers become fewer and fewer.
J2020F: So, the time between like positions or advancements grows longer or requires relocation out of the area?
Eagle: If they've invested wisely, like most have, they may decide to move full time to their second homes in destination resorts, cash in all their equity, and manage their portfolio instead.
J2020F: So they assume the “Landed Gentry Role” and move to the destination resorts with the Wired-Less, Anywhere, Anytime crowd?
Eagle: Yes, primarily to the “Premier” or “Maturing Resorts” where they already own homes or plan to build a vacation or retirement home.
J2020F: What about for those second or third tier executives at the vice president or director level on shorter severance packages?
Eagle: You mean those not quite as wealthy but still affluent? They may have more options in diverse small and mid-size businesses.
Eagle: If they plan to stay in their current “destination” community – they explore options like pursuing top spots in smaller corporation – from a large cap publicly traded company to a mid cap or small cap – or like starting a business, buying a business, buying a franchise, or pursuing more entrepreneurial paths to generate income streams.
J2020F: And for those who are willing to move or take on projects out of the area?
Eagle: They discover how to build networks in different geographical locations while in the same location they work on higher margin projects doing what they love.
J2020F: On our “chess board” chart their story line moves them closer to the border with the “Wired-less folks.”
Eagle: That’s right. The square along the border adjacent to “Mature Resorts.”
J2020F: What label did you give to them? How does Claritas classify their neighborhoods?
Eagle: We simply call them, “Exurb Society.” Claritas singles out three lifestyles as “Second City Elite” , “Upward Bound” and “Gray Power” in their “Second City Society” and three of five (“Home Sweet Home” , “New Empty Nests” and “Beltway Boomers” ) “Affluential” lifestyles.
J2020F: And, the story for those one “chess square below”? Across from the “Distant Exurb” and above “Interim Middle Managers.”
Eagle: These are the consultants and professionals who first commute to, then relocate to, the exurbs to follow their clients as a way of building business in more preferred quality of life locations in emerging, mid- and late-growth locations.
J2020F: And, how do you describe them?
Eagle: “Digitally Mobiles.”
J2020F: And, in the Claritas scheme of things?
Eagle: Lifestyles primarily from three social clusters. Younger new media savvy business and lifestyles that include Up-And-Comers, from City Centers -- those twentysomethings with a “disproportionate number of recent college graduates who are into athletic activities, the latest technology and nightlife entertainment.”
J2020F: Others from the City Centers?
Eagle: No. Next are the Big Fish, Small Pond in the Landed Gentry. They’ve got upscale incomes and can afford to spend heavily on “consumer electronics, wireless and computer technology, luxury cars, powerboats, books and magazines, children's toys and exercise equipment.”
J2020F: And, the third?
Eagle: From 2nd City Society, are the Bright Lites, Li’l City. “They spend big on digital and wireless technology, business and cultural media, casual-dining restaurants, upscale retailers, foreign travel and luxury cars.”
J2020F: And, finally the last square?
Eagle: Yes, the forth category – we call “Portfolio Locals” --back to the right hand border just below “Affluently Elite” on the border just above “Starting Over”
J2020F: How does the story unfold for them?
Eagle: Typically they are just one step removed from being trapped in an unwanted interim occupation. While they can still afford the cost of living in maturing and slowly declining neighborhoods, the demand for fulfilling work they prefer drops.
J2020F: But, the volume of projects fills income gaps, so they are willing to take the tradeoff between staying in the same region they love?
Eagle: What they can’t earn in premium fees, they make up in smaller but high volume projects.
J2020F: Oh, and how does Claritas classify them?
Eagle: They tend to be found in the mix of Urban Midtown clusters, primarily in Urban Achiever and Multi-Culti Mosiac neighborhoods.
J2020F: So, if I'm considering all 16 options, how do you evaluate six types of real estate opportunities -- when to buy, how long to hold, and when to sell?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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