Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Moving to Wireless Premier, Maturing, Suburban or Exurban Resorts
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“And he’s going ‘I’ve never painted anything like this before,’ so he took it to the gallery to see what would happen and Lenore, who runs the gallery, she loved it. She loved this painting. She hung it in the most prominent place in the gallery and told Earl to bring in anything he painted and that she would love to have it. It was the most fantastic thing that ever happened to Earl, and he couldn’t figure it out, but what the heck, huh? Got a painting in there now …”
Neil Young & Crazy Horse “Greendale”
DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. Within the Wired-less Doing What You Love – Anywhere, Anytime “box” we find four sub-stories. Imagine a premier resort location – say Lake Tahoe – it isn’t hard to imagine slightly less affluent neighborhoods in lower cost of living zip codes radiating out from the ski areas.
Journal of 2020 Foresight: Explain the four sub stories. What do Boomers need to know about them? Do they exist only in this scenario? Or are there, in fact, a total of 16 sub stories?
Eagle: O.K. One may lead to a better fit compared to the other three. No. Yes.
J2020F: Do go on, wise guy.
Eagle: When you look at the four-box model, you notice that the names of the four major scenarios sit in the extreme corners.
J2020F: So Wired-less Doing What You Love -- Anywhere, Anytime sits just outside of where two extreme points come together.
Eagle: We did that on purpose. In this case the name sits on the intersection of the best in passion – doing what you love, and the best in a preferred geographical location.
J2020F: So if we divided each of the four scenarios into four sub-boxes, we’d be able to show, what?
Eagle: While each of the four all fit the definition of “Doing What You Love in your New Preferred Geographical Area” each varies in relation to degrees of doing what you love and degrees of quality of life offerings.
J2020F: So the two on the right side – that border “Staying Put, Doing What I Love”might be interpreted as less preferable on quality of life dimensions?
Eagle: Yes, they share that story. But the difference between the two is the upper box affords the best in terms of passion compared to the box just below it – the one that “touches” the “Trapped and Permanently Temporary” box to the lower right at the intersection. Does that make sense?
J2020F: I think so. We accounted for the lower box, what about the box to it’s left just below the best passion and best location?
Eagle: We say that since it borders like the “trapped combination” on the upper boundary between the “Struggling Lone Eagle, Overpriced for the Local Market” scenario and the “Wired-less scenario” that it shares the best quality of life community, but just above average in passion or fulfillment.
J2020F: O.K. I think I’m starting to get it. Each quadrant has an extreme box in each of the four corners.
Eagle: And each scenario has three other boxes that border the other three scenarios. If the boxes were towns, they’d surround Lake Tahoe, for example – some being closer to the Lake, others lying at some distance from it.
J2020F: So, you could predict that they share some common “real estate story” near their common borders?
Eagle: That’s right. The extreme, in this case “It’s Wired(less), Doing What You Love – Anywhere, Anytime” the best in both horizontal and vertical dimensions (passion and quality of life), community more often than not is a resort town offering premier lifestyles. The clientele demands tailored services -- high margin and personalized.
J2020F: You expect to find the more affluent lifestyle neighborhoods, right?
Eagle: Yes, and you do. In the Claritas scheme of things these are the Landed Gentry communities -- Country Squires and God's Country neighborhoods.
J2020F: What about dropping down to the border shared with the “Struggling Lone Eagles, Over-Priced for What Local Markets?
Eagle: On the outskirts of the new and growing premier resort communities, doing more of what they love are the wired-less struggling eagles who enjoy the lifestyle advantages, have traded-off their passionate work for quality of life, but have enjoyed moderate to high rates of real estate appreciation.
J2020F: O.K. Let’s see if I get this. These are some of the less affluent, but educated neighborhoods, right?
Eagle: Yes. You'd expect to find a combination of lifestyle neighborhoods from Big Fish in Small Pond in the Landed Gentry cluster and Greenbelt (Families) and Big Sky families (now) of the Country Comfort and New Homesteaders (former New Eco-topia) of the Country (Families) Comfort social clusters.
J2020F: O.K. this time let’s move to communities on the same level, but to the right. Describe the upper box that sits between our new and growing premier resort communities and the Staying Put, Doing What I Love scenario stories.
Eagle: Some of the aging resort towns -- similar to maturing Staying Put communities (on the other side of the “border”), you find that a combination of a maturing quality of life with high degrees of past real estate appreciation.
J2020F: When you look at the zip codes, what types of neighborhoods would you find?
Eagle: A mix between two affluent tribal clusters -- the Second City Society and some of the lifestyle profiles from The Country Comforts.
J2020F: So these communities remain content and aren’t taking steps to revitalize themselves?
Eagle: Yes that may very well be the case. But if they do upgrade, what with the cost of living and newer developments increasing real estate prices, many of the earlier residents could no longer afford the resort lifestyle.
J2020F: So entrepreneurs begin to notice that their higher margin services are sought out by fewer and fewer clients, and that pattern translates into increasing travel and commuting costs.
Eagle: True. So they cut back on costs or find other ways to make it work for them. On our chart, they can move to the left and down to become a combination “Wireless – Lone Eagle” or drop straight down and become a “Wireless- Temporary.”
J2020F: Dropping straight down is the last of the three sub-stories. What is it like?
Eagle: While still a preferred lifestyle location the wired-less, but permanently temporary communities attract the remaining lifestyles in the social clusters – Crossroads Villagers (similar to the former River City, USA) in the Rustic Living cluster and Shotguns and Pickups and Red, White & Blues in the Middle America, and the New Homesteaders of the Country Comfort (former Exurban Blues).
J2020F: What do they have in common?
Eagle: Moving to these neighborhoods is a difficult transition. While not working on projects that they hate, it is difficult to dig yourself out of a financial hole, since most of the work is on low margin projects. The unfulfilling work, long commutes, and extended stays represent tradeoffs for a slightly better quality of life.
J2020F: Is a more rustic vacation lifestyle a better option?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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