Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Thursday, July 27, 2006
Vacation Lifestyles in Pristine Communities
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“I tell you all this because you can’t tell by listening to the songs, you have to listen to the instrumentals to get this. Anyway, so when you see somebody like Eric Clapton up there playing guitar and closing his eyes it could be anything. It could be anything.”
Neil Young & Crazy Horse “Greendale”
DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. With the right knowledge products producing multiple streams of residual income, Struggling Lone Eagles overcome their challenge of making it in rural local markets. As with the four wireless resort communities, Rustic Eagles live in four kinds of neighborhoods, as well.
Journal of 2020 Foresight: The four sub-stories in this scenario – the bottom left “quadrant” in the original model -- share an entrepreneurial and self-sufficient combination that distinguishes them from the other scenarios, right?
Eagle: And, they share a determination to find towns where they can enjoy a higher quality of life – beyond the mid-point for preferred location. But unlike the “Wired-Less Landed Gentry,” these residents traded off what they really dreamed about doing – since the whole quadrant falls just below the mid-point – for the privilege of living a “vacation” lifestyle.
J2020F: Since Rustic Eagle communities lie off the beaten path, I imagine quite often the local community is too small or too dispersed to charge higher margin services to the local demand.
Eagle. Yes. Except for the Eagles bordering the “Wired-Less” boundary – just below the “Resort Suburbs” and “Distant Exurbs” in Small Town Burbs and Satellite Cities.
J2020F: By that, you mean, what?
Eagle: I mean the story takes place in the highest quality of life community on the outskirts of some of the more famous destination or maturing resorts.
J2020F: So, that would mean living not too far from destination resorts provides a client base.
Eagle: Right. And, the lower cost of living allows them to build their reputation more slowly and afford to charge less for their services to build their business or consulting practice – wired or not.
J2020F: They enjoy these communities with more affordable living costs while they're living at a greater distance than the two sub- quadrants “across the Wired-Less and Eagle border” closer to the destination resort towns. Describe each of the four stories in a little more detail.
Eagle: Still finding enough projects to support what they love to do the “Struggling Lone Eagles” in exurbs of the urban and suburban centers are found in maturing communities with slightly declining quality of life.
J2020F: These are the ones who “border” the “Staying Put” scenario?
Eagle: Yes. Eagle citizens of “Satellite Cities” are just a little country, but mostly “citified,” if there is such a word.
J2020F: They don’t live in the more remote or rural areas?
Eagle: They’re more of a mix of old and young, homeowners and renters, families and singles– who live in satellite cities – as opposed to large metropolitan urban centers.
J2020F: But in terms of lifestyle, they enjoy leisure and recreation pursuits with a lower cost of living and more relaxed pace?
Eagle: Yes. While they can afford to find clients and customers more slowly in a preferred location, they have little trouble maintaining their workload with current clients.
J2020F: What motivates them?
Eagle: For the restless eagles, this may not be their final destination. Their major challenge is creating demand for their services in a more affluent resort community to which they want to relocate -- either for what the community offers or for the income.
J2020F: So, the two sub-stories, both close to the border separating them from the Wired-Less and Staying Put scenarios play out in average passionate or average quality of life communities?
Eagle: Yes. Except for natives of “Small Town Burbs” who enjoy an above average quality of life. These are communities of small families and empty-nesting couples. “They live a rustic lifestyle where hunting and fishing remain prime leisure activities along with cooking, sewing, camping and boating,” according to Claritas PRIZM NE.
J2020F: Now what about the “bottom two” neighborhoods – “Rustic Eagles” and “Rural Country”?
Eagle: The last two scenarios describe people who really don't enjoy what they have to do to support their lifestyle in a place that offers more for less.
J2020F: I take it that those who live in pristine, but rustic places may eventually make a killing in real estate appreciation, but investing in the community solely for a financial gain is more risky and may take longer, right?
Eagle: Exactly. The benefit is the lower price of land and a better quality of life tied to shared community values with more of an emphasis on self-sufficiency.
J2020F: I take it just from their names that Rustic Eagles may be the most isolated – living on the back roads?
Eagle: They’re most “extreme scenario” story -- where quality of life communities are the furthest from resort destinations and involve vocations that Lone Eagles hate – is all about extreme self-sufficiency.
J2020F: What my friend would call living off the grid. And that leaves …
Eagle: The last subcategory of “Rural Country Eagles” is really a community for “Trapped and Permanently Temporary” workers from “across the border to the right” searching for a much lower cost of living in a relatively higher quality of life town.
J2020F: By virtue of their new living quarters, they work on low margin projects in unfulfilling jobs?
Eagle: That’s right. They have longer than average commutes and may have to follow the work on extended stays for the tradeoff to a better quality of life. They might end up living off the grid in Rustic Eagle neighborhoods.
J2020F: Is it a better option than the future for too many of the generation’s older brothers and sisters who are forced into retirement earlier than anticipated?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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