Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
The Journal of 2020 Foresight
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Boomer Transcendentalists: Kit Carson, Jedediah Smith and John Fremont
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“She’s gonna carry on somehow the Green tradition, if not the Green name, Sun Green. S-u-n Green. Names are funny in the Green family. Ciela Green was the grandmother of Sun. She had two daughters by two different Green brothers. One of their names was Sea, S-e-a and the other was Sky Green… “
Neil Young & Crazy Horse “Greendale”
DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. Back to the future. The four seasons of the current saeculum -- the Millennial Saeculum -- began in 1943. It began with the birth of the (Prophet / Idealist) Baby Boomer Generation and is projected to last through the Generation Z / (Adaptive / Artist) generation born in between 1997 and 2026 – which equates to an 83 year lifespan.
Journal of 2020 Foresight: We’ve explored the work by Howe and Strauss as a way of tying together hindsight and foresight – to produce insight.
Pathfinder: They provided the hindsight. For foresight we draw upon Harry Dent’s work. He converts their concepts with his demographic, consumer buying and technology adoption research into economic predictions for the personal investment and real estate markets.
J2020F: Before we get to Dent, let me apply hindsight to our outpost adventures. OK?
Pathfinder: Sure. What do you have in mind?
J2020F: During our journey – over 3000 miles through five of eight western states --we physically explored large portions of the Wild West that opened in 1804 when Lewis and Clark launched their expedition chartered by President Thomas Jefferson to discover the land west of the Mississippi as part of the Louisiana Purchase – California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and Utah.
Pathfinder: Don’t forget the tip of New Mexico.
J2020F: Oh right at Four Corners. O.K. then, six of eight. I stand corrected.
Pathfinder: We talked quite a bit about the local area history as we visited towns along the way. We came to realize that the Wild West period lasted until 1890 – with the death of Sitting Bull and the capture of Geronimo.
J2020F: Yes, that leads into my question. What did Howe and Strauss call that Saeculum? And who were some of the more famous members of the generations most similar to today’s Boomers, Gen Xers, Gen Yers and Gen Zers?
Pathfinder: Well, first let me point out that we have an exception to the pattern since we’ve got some overlap between The Civil War Saeculum and the Great Power Saeculum.
Pathfinder: Yes, the Heroes / Civic equivalent of today’s Gen Y were skipped.
Pathfinder: The Civil War so disrupted, confused and killed Americans on both sides that Artist Adaptives (Gen Z), officially called the Progressive Generation, ended the Saeculum.
J2020F: Then what happened?
Pathfinder: The “ancestor” Boomer generation – Prophets / Idealists called the Missionary Generation (born between 1860 and 1882) -- kicked off the Great Power Saeculum.
J2020F: In the Outpost we grouped the list of explorers and pathfinders in two different groups – those that followed the rivers and Indian trails and those that blazed the wagon trails that led to the railroad tracks crisscrossing the territories.
Pathfinder: That’s right.
J2020F: How do the pathfinders and trailblazers fit into Howe and Strauss generations as the westward expansion unfolded?
Pathfinder: Our first group (similar to today’s Gen Z Artist / Adaptive generation) included those born in the later years of the Revolutionary Saeculum.
J2020F: And they were called?
Pathfinder: The Compromise Generation born between 1767-1791 – during the Crisis that led to the founding of the United States. The new High in their early adult years corresponded with the 1804 exploration of the West – more accurately pushing the western boundary from Kentucky, Ohio and Missouri from the eastern side of the Mississippi River to the Pacific Ocean.
J2020F: And, they would be?
Pathfinder: Davy Crocket (1786 – 1836), William Clark (1770 – 1838), Manuel Lisa (1772 – 1820), Meriwether Lewis (1774 – 1809), John Colter (1775 – 1813), and Zebulon Pike (1779 – 1813) among others.
J2020F: Ending the Revolutionary period, the Compromise -- Gen Z-like generation was followed by Boomer-like Prophets / Idealists?
Pathfinder: Like those in the Transcendental Generation born between 1792 – 1821 during the High, but who in midlife experienced the Civil War -- Benjamin Bonneville (1796 – 1878), Jedediah Smith (1798 – 1831), Jim Bridger (1804 - 1881), Kit Carson (1809 – 1868), John Fremont (1813 - 1890) and Ben Holladay (1819 - 1887).
J2020F: An awakening follows a high, during which a Gen X-like generation is born?
Pathfinder: Right. The Gen Xer counterparts, the Gilded Generation born between 1822 – 1842, included Gold Rush 49ers and Civil War Vets such as Horace Tabor (1830 - 1899), Mark Twain (1835- 1910) and Wild Bill Hickok (1837 - 1876).
J2020F: Then we skip to the Gen Z equivalent generation? Caught in odd warp of history – no post Civil War civic or hero type appeared, right?
Pathfinder: Yes. We skip to those artist / adaptive members of the Progressive generation, born during a crisis between 1843 - 1859 -- Jesse James (1847 - 1882), Wyatt Earp (1848- 1929) and Buffalo Bill Cody (1846 – 1917).
J2020F: Cody? His 30-year run as the traveling Wild West Show through the United States and Europe at the turn of the century fits the profile well. He advocated the principles of fairness and inclusion through the treatment of Native Americans like Sitting Bull in his shows and on reservations following the Indian Wars.
Pathfinder: And, he mastered the marvels of the industrial age – electricity generators and trains to move a cast of hundreds and to perform at night – as he told the story of a dying romantic and heroic way of life out on the western plains.
J2020F: And, sets up the kick-off to the Great Power Saeculum – from 1860 to 1942 -- with the Baby Boomer equivalent generation – the Missionaries – born between 1860 – 1882 – some of whom attended his shows with their parents.
Pathfinder: During post-Civil War in a period of rural populism rode nortorious members of the Boomeresque Missionary generation -- Butch Cassidy (1867 - 1909) and the Sundance Kid (1867 - 1909).
J2020F: Who seemed to have robbed, passed through or hid out along the towns we traveled through on the Utah leg of our journey.
Pathfinder: At least those signs broke up some of the monotony.
J2020F: The next generation in sequence was conceived at the end of the West – between 1883 to 1900, right?
Pathfinder: Yes, the so-called Lost Generation – with Missionary Parents and G.I. and Silent Generation children, and ultimately Baby Boomer grandchildren.
J2020F: So, the Missionaries were the Boomers of the Great Power Saeculum, right?
Pathfinder: Yup. They were the prophet / idealists. And, the Lost were the Gen Xers, the G.I. were the Gen Yers, and the Silent were the Gen Zers.
J2020F: Or, the nomad / reactives, hero / civics and artist adaptives, respectively.
J2020F: But, what about the demographic breakdown today?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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