Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Tuesday, July 30, 2002
Winning by Creating Better Opportunities for those Who Follow
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“The Generation Wave shows how a generation affects the economy in all its aspects as it ages. Every generation progresses through a predictable cycle. As it grows up, it spawns innovations in new technologies and social values. Then, as it moves into adulthood, it uses its earning and spending power to adopt these innovations, creating a boom cycle in the economy. Finally, as the generation enters its maturing years, it controls investments and corporate and political power, which it uses to change organizations and institutions. The baby boom generation was born as a wave peaking between 1957 and 1961. The next wave shows the generation coming of age in the late 1970s and early 1980s, innovating and embracing new social values and critical new technologies such as microcomputers, which were then in their entrepreneurial stage.”
Harry S. Dent Jr. “The Great Boom Ahead”
According to Pathfinder, everyone attending Basecamp, whether as individuals, teams, leaders or as organizational representatives, is here to make the best decisions possible in uncertain, confusing times.
They’ve all recognized that the rules have changed. It ‘s no longer enough to simply execute – to do things right.
One of the last challenges for Lost Explorer in Basecamp is to examine his vague, ideal future in terms of his past patterns and habits. Some have prepared him for success. Others left unexamined threaten the results of his path forward.
To get a better understanding, I interviewed Pathfinder again.
The Journal of 2020 Foresight: Here we are in Basecamp. You list 19 learning expeditions and communities ranging in membership from 4 to 700.
And today you told the newly forming expedition that you are aggregating lessons learned, new discoveries and emerging best practices from over 4015 on-line community members.
How did it all start? What past pattern influenced your current work?
Pathfinder: The original learning expedition began by accident. I met Lost Explorer, Lone Eagle, and Trailblazer at a Dana Point Harbor sailboat mixer in California. We had some time off from our “Bootcamp for Babyboomers” seminar.
J2020F: Babyboomer bootcamp?
PF: Sure. Periodically, we bring together thought leaders, change agents, and innovative people from all walks of life – the so-called “creative minority” – to generate “100 Predictions.”
In this case we focused on the baby boom generation – as an example of what biologists call the “dominant--year class" a cyclical bulge in the population of a species of animals.
Such a group has a disproportionate effect on resources, and thus on the lives of all fellow creatures in front of them and all those behind.
J2020F: For example?
PF: We broke our boomer predictions into family; living the “Good Life” in retirement; their children; aging boomer babies; the world of work; boomer health concerns; finances and the role of money; the boomer homestead; earnings and investments; what boomers believe; and boomer consumers and their impact on business.
J2020F: I see. So the four of you set sail from the place where early trappers threw hides over the cliffs down to the tall ships anchored in the harbor?
PF: Yes. And, the great thing about the sailboats we used is you don’t have a lot of room to roam around. You are pretty much forced into close proximity conversations.
Mind you, we set sail at dusk. There’s something wonderful about the ocean.
The up-and-down motion.
The side-to-side motion.
The vagaries of the wind and the tacking back and forth.
To make any kind of progress, you have to focus on the matter at hand, and balance in three dimensions.
J2020F: I take it you found something in common.
PF: The sea works its own magic on conversation. It didn’t take long before we found a common passion – the challenge of building change-worthy organizations and individuals.
J2020F: Whoa. Wait a minute. What do you mean?
PF: Well, you’ve been introduced to the first part of Lost Explorer’s journey through his journal.
He described his life trajectory. We found common themes we all shared: children, an orientation to people, media and technology.
Also, life-long learning and balancing on the three legged stool of chaos, innovation and collaboration.
J2020F: And you had that in common?
PF: In a way. I had children. I also had been troubled by the fact that the so-called career experts were experts academically. They hadn’t actually changed careers themselves. I had.
During my first career as a clinical researcher I pursued split brain (left-brain and right-brain) research and dabbled with media and technology.
My challenge was to find a way of stimulating both the receptive and expressive communications abilities of developmentally delayed children and adolescents.
We hoped media tools might help.
And technology might prove to stimulate under developed portions of the brain.
My bridge into the corporate world was constructed through a series of positions identified by career research and from my love of applying a model or theory to new challenges.
My own transferable skills reconfigured into four options:
Marketing Research,
Organizational Development,
Career Development, and
Management Training.
J2020F: What about chaos, innovation and collaboration?
PF: Change-worthiness. For three years I conducted an internally-run outplacement service for thousands of engineers and project managers. While they went out the door, we also launched quality initiatives to re-engage the survivors.
J2020F: So you adapted to recession-driven changes?
PF: I learned first-hand the messiness of cultural changes in a communication- limited environment. We cut back on our offerings of traditional management development training and took on a more consultative role.
J2020F: And the impact of technology on innovation? Or visa versa?
PF: Based on my corporate experience my research pursued answers to the following questions:
1) Why did technology solutions cause unintended consequences;
2) Which factors prevented or eliminated the risks of new technology implementations;
3) How do changing technological, social, political, and economic discontinuities impact the success of a business, and
4) How do you harness the potential integration of media, technology and people to better learn, innovate, collaborate, and communicate?
J2020F: Give us an example.
PF: Well, as a result of initiating a joint study with a local University I also discovered how the introduction of new technologies – usually with the goal of quickly improving productivity by lowering costs -- is really a catalyst for more change -- and, as was in this corporation’s case:
1) Triggered stress disability claims;
2) Reversed traditional roles, and
3) Led to a 25% drop in productivity.
J2020F: With Lost Explorer, you had what in common?
PF: Wherever possible he navigated towards convergence -- opportunities in which two or more disciplines became a new hybrid field. All of us had been fascinated with Alvin Toffler's theories and particularly with the similarities to Marshall McLuhan's premise, especially how:
Technologies accelerate the pace, scale, and patterns of change.
Each successive media enhances a physiological response.
Each creates a new imbalance.
Early applications of a new media or technology incorrectly attempt to automate something already in place instead of understanding that the real value lies in finding out what you can do now, that could not be done before.
J2020F: Now what about the others? Trailblazer?
PF: Waves of uncertainty hit TB’s organization during its merger with its high tech competitor. So, he taught an opportunity development workshop as a career program, and taught strategic planning principles for career planning.
In those heady days he helped intrapreneurs anticipate new projects and products by focusing on the needs of his company's customer's customers.
Together with their video production group, he collaborated on ways communications could demonstrate and reinforce the new ways of doing business.
He changed the culture from a traditional bureaucratic structure to a faster, smarter, more innovative organization.
J2020F: How?
PF: Because, they were driven to anticipate, innovate and excel, he also began looking for other channels to deliver learning on demand, and to make sure what was learned off site or in a classroom was transferred back to the work area by using the:
Natural environment,
Music,
Cameras,
Computers, and
Video equipment
J2020F: So the sailboat, the natural environment, and the technology applications – all tools Trailblazer pioneered? He was quite at home on that sailboat, right?
PF: Not only that, he was the one who insisted on changing our real identities to nicknames. Something he learned from his organizational development experience in a high tech environment.
He learned how to accelerate learning to roughly half the time and then periodically reinforce decisions, strategies, and plans in an integrated communications plan.
J2020F: From traditional classroom to media and technology channels, if I follow you.
PF: Yes, his was the challenge of stimulating creativity and out-of-the-box thinking among engineers and overly analytical clients.
It led him to experiment with software such as IdeaFisher and Inspiration while tracking the development of groupware.
J2020F: Why?
PF: The relentless drive for shorter product cycles and time-to-market made him realize that being in a classroom for a week, or even three days, was fast coming to an end.
Who could afford the time? Only to forget 89% immediately.
J2020F: And what about Lone Eagle?
PF: Like Trailblazer he consulted with product development, marketing, and R&D professionals.
At a multimedia projector company, he launched a rapid product development initiative and began a skunk works effort --a learning laboratory -- for re-defining the presentation platform for PCs.
J2020F: By that you mean?
PF: As a projector-based network of meeting room tools – bringing practical models and templates normally restricted to a classroom and a binder into a
Scenario planning,
Project,
Process, or
Problem solving meeting.
They reversed the prevalent presentation paradigm using the multimedia display and a digital camera for capture of the meeting outcomes, drawings, and decisions.
For the first time, work groups had the power of the internet, intranet, groupware, and PCs at their fingertips.
J2020F: The outcome was what? Shortened cycle times?
PF: Yes. And a practical means of increasing “Organizational IQ” with a “Knowledge-based Learning Network.”
J2020F: So called e-learning applications?
PF: His market research into the education and corporate niches of early adopters targeted knowledge management and organizational learning organizations.
He also realized he wanted to implement and apply the tools, rather than to only consult to the current company’s sales and marketing organization.
J2020F: What happened as a result?
PF: He was recruited to an electronics distribution company to implement distance learning and a strategic employee communications network.
J2020F: Why did the company need his expertise?
PF: The distribution industry had been transforming itself from a transaction-only sales to a more consultative, "value-adding proposition" driven by customer demands.
Since their customers were becoming more demanding and competition more intense, they needed a way for everyone to find which solutions have already worked for a customer in a similar situation, as quickly as possible.
They needed to transfer knowledge of what worked in one part of the corporation to another, instead of reinventing the wheel.
J2020F: So in terms of collaboration, innovation, and chaos?
PF: His challenge was to create a "Communications Central" resource --video, print, and intranet-based employee communications to:
Synchronize marketing and advertising campaigns to their customers with
Internal information-needs and
Share those best practices throughout the corporation.
J2020F: So there you all were. On a sailboat exchanging experiences and insights?
PF: Suddenly the wind stopped. The ocean calmed around us momentarily – the surface turned smooth as glass.
Simultaneously, we reached some sort of synchronicity state.
That moment when every thing happens in slow motion.
We finished each other’s sentences.
Ideas burst out of us like popcorn.
We collectively saw the future and a way to achieve what we all wanted individually, but in a way that would benefit all of us working together.
J2020F: The genesis of beginning when no goal is given; finding a purpose for your own journey; and setting a course that also serves the team?
PF: And, finding a way to win by creating better opportunities for those who follow.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
7:59 AM
Wednesday, July 24, 2002
Back to Basecamp On The Fly
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“Luck is when preparation meets opportunity”
Pathfinder
Lost Explorer’s Continuing Journal
“Because I got pushed into the icy cold waters with a short life line, I hadn't taken the time to approach this search linearly.
That is, with a well crafted plan.
This was my opportunity to go back to "Basecamp" on the fly.
The exercise focused my search to progressive companies in Orange County from the boundary of the 55 on the North to North San Diego County on the South.
My ideal job would be facilitating teams, coaching individuals, researching future trends for new products and services, creating interactive multimedia products, making connections, turning theories, models, etc. into tools for others to use to better themselves.
The type of position is a director of organizational development and training. My goal for re-employment is by 9/30.”
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
6:40 AM
Friday, July 19, 2002
TGIF
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“Light travels through space at a constant 186,281 miles per second. The laws of the universe dictate this speed with no deviation. Humans travel through life without the benefit of a fixed velocity. We move at a variable rate that fluctuates according to our capacity for assimilating new information and influences. How well we absorb the implications of change dramatically affects the rate at which we successfully manage the challenges we face, both individually and collectively. When our perceived abilities and willingness to accomplish a task exceed or fall short of the dangers and opportunities we encounter, a disruption in our expectations results...."
Daryl Conner, Managing at the Speed of Change.
From Lost Explorers Journal
“JULY 9 :TGIF, Day Four and the End of the First Week.
I squeezed the resume writing and refinancing paperwork between the morning orientation session to outplacement and the 4 p.m. appointment with the loan representative.
Sporadically I called my first wave of friends. They are the ones who are most forgiving as I stumble through my story of what happened.
Beach time Questionnaire
July 11: Weekend on the Beach:
By week's end I had signed up for unemployment, contacted 5 people in my network, written a resume, and filled out re-financing materials.
I kicked off my leveraged job search.
I heard about one job lead and could heave a sigh of relief by the weekend since my priority list was all checked off and my stress was significantly reduced.
My networking was puny, and continued off to a slow start of only 25 by the end of the next week.
My counselor had approved my resume and said because I had a short time period that most of the calendar events were what I already knew about.
The value of networking, answering interviewing questions. While valuable, they would take up precious blocks of time away from my search.
She handed me a questionnaire, which I answered at the beach.”
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
7:46 AM
Tuesday, July 16, 2002
Beating Back the Beast in Sea of Cubicles with a Ship's Bell
Chapter One: The Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
"Major change minimizes our ability to dominate events. For a species whose entire existence is predicated on its ability to control its environment, the ultimate nightmare is an inability to assimilate change in a world transforming itself faster by the minute. The Beast is the fear and anxiety within us all as we encounter the significant, unanticipated changes that shatter our expectations. It is not a figment of the imagination, and it cannot be explained away as a passing phase that afflicts only a young boy or a frightened soldier. The Beast is a metaphor, but its devastation of individuals, organizations, and society is real.... Whenever people's expectations dramatically alter circumstances in ways for which they are unprepared, the Beast can flourish."
Daryl R. Connor, “Managing at the Speed of Change,” 1993
Journal of 2020 Foresight: So Lost Explorer discovered Basecamp after being laid off. From the journal entries I’ve read, it shows that event triggered a crisis, as his separation came as a complete shock to him.
Pathfinder: Yes and no. You’ll see a little bit later that he didn’t come to Basecamp right away. And he knew more than he let on. In fact, one of the patterns he discovered is when he’s not starting up something new from scratch he becomes bored easily and coasts.
J2020F: So he positioned himself to get kicked out?
PF: Probably. If you asked him that question today, he’d probably admit to it. Something common to some babyboomers, entrepreneurs, and innovators – but not for all the same reasons.
J2020F: Are you describing something to do with “the need for speed” -- our tolerance for change and ambiguity?
PF: The Chinese combine two separate symbols to express the concept of crisis. The top character represents potential danger, while the lower signals hidden opportunity. Some people anticipate better than others and thrive on the pace of change.
J2020F: How can that be? Isn’t that a paradox?
PF: We can categorize our resilience for significant change – one that surprises us, disrupts, us and smashes our expectations -- based upon our preference for either the top or bottom orientation.
J2020F: Either seeing the change crisis as a threat or an opportunity?
PF: The first feel victimized because they lack an overarching purpose for their life. So, when capsized by events, they have a difficult time reorienting themselves. What they have in common is a lower tolerance for ambiguity and an inability to manage uncertainty. In the past, change was isolated, less disruptive and slower. Unfortunately, successful practices of the past fall short of success today.
J2020F: And the other?
PF: Their response to change – the crisis – focuses on the potential advantage to be exploited, instead of a problem to be avoided. They have a strong life vision. That vision provides context and meaning. It acts as a beacon guiding them through the turmoil and adversity of change.
J2020F: How so?
PF: They see life as a shifting, interacting set of variables. The new combinations yield new opportunities – when older frames of reference are shed. They believe disruptions occur naturally. They respond by investing energy in problem solving and teamwork. Later they draw important lessons from change-related experiences that can be applied to similar situations.
J2020F: What about Lost Explorer? Which group does he fall in?
PF: Read on.
“July 9: Day three and small steps:
My wife scheduled the refinance appointment with our credit union for the next day, so before my outplacement appointment I searched for past financial papers, ran some initial spread sheet figures and spent the morning filing the last work information so I could find the key material for my resume and for interviewing.
Even before my job search I had heard about an opening from my unemployment line friend I had known from the early days in a training association that I had become president of in 1990.
Now during my outplacement appointment with another old friend from the early association days I ran into a former human resources manager who had been at my company for a few months shorter than me.
It's amazing how you can just bump into people and trip over opportunities.
Sea of Cubicles and a Ship's Bell
Out into the sea of cubicles, where I will call home, floating in and out over the next 90 days, there is an area by the career library with a ship's bell.
The ritual is when someone lands a job, they ring the bell, tell their inspirational story, and pass out donuts for all to enjoy.
The systems engineer, Ron, had been laid off from Toshiba.
He "graduated" by getting a contract, first then a full time position at Canon Information Systems.
Says he met a friend of mine, the Human Resources Manager the first day in a Japanese class he enrolled in to help him better understand working in Japanese companies.
"I called him up as part of my network, saying I had met him 2 months ago in class," Ron told us.
"Why didn't you call 2 months ago?" he said my friend replied.”
Hmm. Networking. Gotta ramp that up!
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
6:30 AM
Sunday, July 14, 2002
Disorientation, Networking, and Self-Doubts
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
Journal of 2020 Foresight: So, here in Lost Explorer’s journal, you are saying out of examining our past – the disturbing events and low points, as well as, the satisfying events and the high points, we’ll discover what?
Pathfinder: Insights about our self and interconnections we overlooked.
J2020F: Such as?
PF: Where we contribute to our failures through inattention, bad habits, and personal weaknesses.
J2020F: And where conditions beyond our control conspire against us?
PF: Yes, and here we have to be careful. Too many times we play the victim game.
J2020F: By that you mean we point fingers at other people or events when we should be pointing fingers at ourselves?
PF: Exactly.
J2020F: But, in Lost Explorer’s case he got laid off. How could he have known? As his boss said it wasn’t about his performance, it was about the company’s response to the computer industry downturn.
PF: Look at the pattern emerging. Lost Explorer is shocked to find himself in a financial, family and career crisis.
He says that out of the blue, with no advanced warning, he’s been cut loose from his work friends, teammates, and work routines.
Why? From the company standpoint, he’s been told that the industry – all of its competitors, markets, and customers – have been forced to cut back. Why? Has this been a great secret?
J2020F: To him, yes, I’d have to say so. What is your point?
PF: Could he have anticipated the possibility and taken any action?
J2020F: You mean, above and beyond his 110% devoted to accomplishing his performance objectives? Isn’t it enough to just do your job to the best of your ability and expect just reward and remuneration?
PF: Let me answer this way. When Lost Explorer successfully lands his next opportunity – what kind of due diligence do you believe he owes his family and himself as he sizes up that opportunity? And what would you monitor, to prevent or minimize a disruption to your income of this magnitude?
Let’s see.
More from Lost Explorer’s journal:
“July 8, Day Two and I Hoped it was all a Dream
The morning came about 5 hours too soon. I couldn't sleep the night before.
Every time I closed my eyes the fear and anxiety flooded my thoughts no matter what position I was in.
Finally, at 3 a.m. I got up, walked downstairs with pen and notebook in hand and poured myself several glasses of wine.
I just wrote and wrote. Not too much made sense. One thought would trigger another.
Looking back over the entries, it strikes me that our lives are so complex now a days.
Everything is connected to everything else, like some sort of gigantic interdependent spider web.
So when one part of our lives changes it sets off a chain reaction, rippling out in all directions.
In the morning, I found myself dropping things and staring out into the distance in a mild state of shock.
2 Months Income and 9 Months Search
I couldn't concentrate.
I would do two or three things at once, bouncing from one partially completed task to another.
Everything was important for a moment until I'd panic thinking about something else.
Making the bed, stacking the dishes in the dishwasher ... simple things I had control over began to make me feel better.
Over and over one thought returned.
We had been doing so well financially compared to even a year ago when everyone else had been laid off.
And then boom -- now we have about 2 months of income and if the rule of thumb applies, between 8 and 9 months of job search. A month for every $10,000 of salary.
For the balance of the morning I found myself organizing my work files that had been quickly tossed into boxes.
This was my way of closing down a chapter quickly in my life. A way of integrating my accomplishments for use on my new journey.
Disorientation, Networking, and Self-Doubts
During my hastily departure, I grabbed the interoffice phone book, association listings, memos for resume material and my books.
While I sorted I jotted down my random thoughts and began to put them in priority order.
Because finances were on my mind I accomplished two things.
I updated a spread sheet of income and expenses for the July through December time period and I stood in line for 45 minutes at the unemployment line ... still in a mild state of shock with that head achy feeling like eye strain.
Out of the blue I heard, "Oh no, not you too."
Here was my third networking contact, counting the first two at work on my way out. Of all places down at unemployment.
She had a month's warning at the aerospace company. We exchanged phone numbers. I also arranged for my outplacement appointment and sorted through the severance details.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
9:00 AM
Saturday, July 13, 2002
Out-Of-Body Elevator Ride
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
More from Lost Explorer’s journal describing:
What have been the significant events, the disturbing and satisfying, the highs and the lows?
"Let's go for a walk down to human resources," she said after giving me the summary of a pittance she called a severance package.
I'm not sure if it was due to the rapid descent from the executive tower on the 15th floor to the 3rd floor in the elevator, but I fought a combination out-of-body and shock experiences.
I managed to ask her if it would be inappropriate for her to be a reference for me. "No, not at all," she said, "and as I said, this isn't about performance. It's just the computer industry with the price-cutting is forcing every company in it to cut costs drastically.
You'll do well, at least you aren't so specialized that you have to stay in this industry." Small consolation, but consolation at any rate.
"Good luck, I wish it could have been different," she said as she left me in human resources for my exit interview and benefits details.
How To Tell My Wife and Family?
Trying to focus proved elusive. The HR representative said words that seemed to float in a foggy haze. Discrepancies popped up between what the package really was and what my former boss had outlined.
A call back from the executive made things worse. She claimed to have said one thing, denying another figure of two weeks longer for severance. "Here it is right here in front of me, three weeks and a day for each quarter worked."
Three weeks now, the package said four. Obviously, she had been affected too. I remember telling executives in briefings that a little known fact is that they experience a tremendous amount of stress when they outplace employees. Somehow, though, I didn't feel much better.
"How am I going to tell my wife and family? How are we going to pay the mortgage? Where is the money going to come from?"
Paying the Mortgage
My wife greeted me in the kitchen.
She told me about a former neighbor she had just seen.
The words floated over, around and through me.
When she took a breath, all I could do was to blurt out, "I have some bad new...”
Before I could finish, she said, "What... No, you've been laid off?" in a half-joking, half-serious, not-wanting-to-believe tone.
"Yeah", I said.
"Well, I have confidence in you ... you'll get another position soon. I'm not worried about that. It's just not fair. Just when we have a breather, can pay all our bills in cash and have some left over,” she said.
We both silently meditated on the fact that our income stream was about to hit a major draught in about 30 days. First the mortgage comes to mind.
Then the mental search for cardboard to make a sign, "Homeless, will consult for food." It was all I could do to unload all the stuff in boxes from my cleaned out office that night.
Free Floating Anxiety
This was out of the blue.
I have had trouble sleeping the first night.
I had to write stuff down to stop thinking about it. "Need to exercise, eat right, and take time to worry. Use all the services available." The headache.
Yesterday I couldn't focus. Did absent minded stuff.
The severance package is pitiful, especially with what is taken out. When I close my eyes to rest is when the anxiety and topics float to the surface.
It is a matter of financial desperation, like what an old acquaintance said in the unemployment line -- the first worries are about where the money will come from."
I'm feeling disoriented with little things to do, but I don't do them because it takes time away from the worry. I get that sinking feeling that the end is near, which will probably give interview jitters.
Trying to keep my story straight.
Now the Pieces Begin to Make Sense
Funny little things pop into your head, like little jigsaw pieces coming together to reveal a pattern.
Like when I didn't receive the division's marketing newsletter on E-mail that day.
Why my H.R. friend had left a note on my computer screen about calling later that evening.
Why a secretary came to me wondering why she was requested to take my name off a distribution list for a standing meeting in the morning.
Before I left two of my facilitators came to see me off.
The first one said he knew the week before ... he was part of the 'family' and the other came in shock.
That evening I forced myself to call a friend, just to talk about my layoff.
I couldn't really concentrate on what he said or what I said. It was a valiant effort at rehearsing what I would say if my H.R. buddy should call.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
8:44 AM
Thursday, July 11, 2002
Abrupt Endings
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
I asked Pathfinder for examples. He told me to read on in the learning expedition journal I had found under my bed in the cabin. He told me “Lost Explorer,” the journals author (again no real names) answered the first set:
"What have been the significant events, the disturbing and satisfying, the highs and the lows?"
Pathfinder said I might catch up with Lost Explorer and his other expedition members with him when I took off for the Ridge later. Anyway, here’s his Basecamp entry:
July 6: Re-entry from the Fourth of July Holiday.
This Tuesday feels like a Monday. Just back from a northern California holiday at Cambria By The Sea.
An omen.
Within the first 2 miles of our car trip up we slash our rear tire at 7:30 pm on this holiday eve.
Earlier that same day at work I got nailed along with one of my facilitators by the executive vice president, my boss, at the beginning of a Continuous Process Improvement (CPI) team meeting.
The executive "went non-linear," as one of the other executives fondly explains, and a trait, up until then, hidden from me.
With a phone message scribbled in hand from the director of human resources saying "dismissed", she appears abruptly out of nowhere, smoke bellowing out of her nostrils. "I want to see you and you."
My facilitator and I exchange stunned looks. –
A Dressing Down and Out
"We don't dismiss, we want CPI to be a positive experience! Get it!? I don't care what you two personally think, you two don't dismiss anyone!" With that she stormed off.
Finally, I think ... since I'm speechless at this point, I get the treatment she is famous for. I flash back to an earlier boss who told me that if I didn't get into trouble, I wasn't doing my job. The motto was " It's better to beg forgiveness than ask for permission."
That was Friday before the flat tire.
On Tuesday, my first official day back from vacation, the morning phone message from executive secretary to meet with my boss at 1:30 p.m. fit the pattern.
My facilitator had explained that after these flare-ups, the exec always patches things up with an apology. That's my expectation.
So I show up, kind of rehearsing how I will make it easy for her to make up and she says, "This won't be your best meeting."
Intuitively, it was clear that the ship had hit an iceberg and there were only a few lifeboats available.
Unfortunately, I'd be walking the plank without even so much as a wetsuit for the cold choppy waters.
"You're in the layoffs, part of our division's fair share. I didn't agree with it," she said, "You're a super facilitator, especially with my staff ... who aren't the easiest in the world to get to agree on anything!"
The irony of this whole situation lies in the fact that I have been an outplacement consultant on and off over the past 13 years.
Now I was on the receiving end of the services. She kept her meeting brief to only a few minutes, something I had always advised whenever I had been at a client's "taking out" or "picking up" a new participant for our services.
I noticed a checklist of 5 points to remember tacked to her bulletin board ... and I mentally gave her an "A" for her handling of me.
At the time, though, none of this surfaced in my thoughts. So there I was --in a situation where I’d have to take my own advice. Very humbling, I must tell you. But, later I drew comfort from Joseph Campbell’s quote:
"The usual hero adventure begins with someone from who something has been taken, or who feels there's something lacking in the normal experiences available or permitted to the members of his society. This person then takes off on a series of adventures beyond the ordinary, either to recover what has been lost or to discover some life-giving elixir. It's usually a cycle, a going and a returning."
Joseph Campbell, in "Myth of the Hero"
Nothing about this felt heroic or adventuresome.”
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
6:43 AM
Monday, July 08, 2002
At the Heart of the Journey
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
"We're in one of those great historical periods that occur every 200 or 300 years when people don't understand the world anymore, when the past is not sufficient to explain the future."
Peter Drucker
When the Journal of 2020 Foresight caught up with Pathfinder, he had just finished his orientation to Basecamp for a new learning expedition about to form.
Journal of 2020 Foresight: Let's begin by telling us what you told them.
Pathfinder: Well, Basecamp is all about what I call your interior furniture. Each of us is a unique human being with our own set of talents, experiences, and ambitions. No matter what stage of life we find ourselves in, and what situation we face, we must begin with an assessment of our current situation.
J2020F: Our current reality sits in the middle of a dynamic tension, right?
PF: Sure. We are creatures of habits. Behaviors honed by life experiences from our past. Each or us brings to the present our own capability to fully or only partially exploit opportunities. Likewise, we can summon a certain amount of resilience to diminish the threats we encounter to our success.
J2020F: Bad habits and good, right?
PF: Usually folks who come to Basecamp need to regroup. They face what we call "nonnegotiable conflicts" in their lives. Something isn't working. The obstacles they face stand in the way of meaningful growth in their life.
J2020F: So finding our calling when no goal is given, is another way of recognizing something in our life blocks our path to fulfillment. And, then, Basecamp is all about understanding strengths and weaknesses?
PF: We can be blocked by obstacles in our personalities, in our surroundings, or in our interpersonal relationships. As these obstacles become clear to us, we experience an inner crisis, because we recognize this threat to our personal fulfillment and happiness.
J2020F: What happens then?
PF: At this point we make a choice: We either learn to live with the conflict by limiting our options and compromising our goals; or we remove the conflict by positioning it elsewhere or neutralizing its impact in our lives."
J2020F: Something tells me Basecamp isn't about limiting our options or compromising our goals.
PF: That's right. It's really about charting our own way with a compelling vision of a desirable future. One free of that non-negotiable conflict, whatever it might be.
When confronted with an obstacle -- a crippling character flaw, an unfulfilling occupation, or a debilitating personal relationship -- people who come to Basecamp develop a strategy to overcome that conflict and emerge victorious from its influence.
J2020F: But that's only one part of it.
PF: As Jim Ewing, one of my early mentors put it, "Only fools lead others into the wilderness of the future without a careful reading of history in their knapsacks."
J2020F: So we create our strategy from elements of our life our own strengths and weaknesses, as well as, from dreams of our future?
PF: Jim Ewing used to tell me, Our Past is a collection of anecdotes, beliefs about our journey through time, what it has been and what it means.
When mapped out it shows how we have repeated ourselves, what we have never tried or tried too often, and what paths were never taken or were over trod.
J2020F: And vision?
PF: Vision is a pragmatic, yet passionate picture of a desirable future.
J2020F: So, It is a future as we passionately want it to be?
PF: It's as if we are painting a rainbow. In Basecamp we don't have to know how the story to the pot of gold will unfold. That comes later in the Ridge and in the Outpost. There, the "rainbow meets the road." Here, we create visions free from the burdens of any present constraints, of knowing how to proceed, of any the lack of materials and resources.
J2020F: Why separate the two?
PF: Persistent vision, acting like "necessity", becomes the "mother of invention." Whatever is needed is created.
J2020F: So in a way, you encourage breakthrough thinking from people joining learning expeditions in Basecamp.
PF: That's right. Vision, fueled with will power, creates a "tension" between the future and present. Jim Ewing described a passionate vision working on us like a magnet across time -- tugging us through worthy change. It had to be compelling enough to stretch us beyond the ordinary, the everyday, the urgent.
J2020F: Or as Joel Barker says, "Vision without action is only a dream. Action without a vision only passes the time. Vision with Action can move mountains."
PF: Exactly. Our past consists of broad adventures of beginnings, development, and decline. Just as our future will.
J2020F: So can I assume it includes a unique mixture of paradigms, trends, cycles, habits, accomplishments, and defeats?
PF: Yes. While we can never be 100% prepared for future events, what we are after in Basecamp is a readiness. A summary illustrates how well we are positioned in the present, and how we are poised and prepared to act on the future.
J2020F: So what would that summary include?
PF: A past survey includes answers to these key questions:
What major trends and events beyond our control have shaped our past journey to the present?
What have been the significant events, the disturbing and satisfying, the highs and the lows?
What patterns and cycles have postured us for future journeys?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
6:33 AM
Sunday, July 07, 2002
New Beginnings Entry
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
I see by the continuing entries in this journal, that someone else is a Joseph Campbell fan. The day’s diary opens with this quote.
The Morning After, Ships Log 9:30 a.m.
"Different teachers may suggest exercises, but they may not be the ones to work for you. All a teacher can do is suggest. He is like a lighthouse that says, 'There are rocks over her, steer clear. There is a channel, however, out there.... (I)f you do follow your bliss you put yourself on a kind of track that has been there all the while, waiting for you, and the life that you ought to be living is the one you are living.
When you can see that, you begin to meet people who are in the field of your bliss, and they open the doors to you. I say, follow your bliss and don't be afraid, and doors will open where you didn't know they were going to be."
Joseph Campbell, in "Myth of the Hero"
New Beginnings
I guess we all encounter those passages in our lives. Those rocky, uncertain, uncomfortable transitions between what we've been and what we will become. These are times of flux, stress, and anxiety.
Not so much those times when changing circumstances can be swallowed in small bites allowing us to make adjustments and to move on – none the worse for ware.
Those circumstances are more like a shift in the wind prompting you to tact a few degrees off your course until the wind shifts again and your regain you direction. Like most people, I tact back and forth every day assimilating those kinds of changes.
But transitions require us to change our way of doing things. They force us to accommodate them. Those are the changes which disorient us, which knock us off kilter. Transitions leave us direction less, as if we're at the helm of a sailboat in the middle of the Bermuda Triangle and our compass dial is spinning chaotically.
Like last night.
I have to admit I was freaked out still, even when we put down anchor in this cove to get out of the high winds. Now, in the morning light I could see the sandy beach. A wave of relaxation calmed me. Maybe there's something of a vacation aura broadcast by beaches. The sun. The sand. The seagulls yakking to each other overhead.
In my mind's eye, we have many possibilities. But we can't live more than one life. It's all we've got. Each of us faces the darkness alone. Each of us is unique. Any gift we were to give to the world must come out of our own experience. Out of our own fulfillment - not from anybody else.
While walking aimlessly down the beach, as I reflect on the inner circle in the heart of the chart – “me, lifecycle, spiritual” and extend my thoughts out to “multi-universes, planet, and environment,” I’m struck by the thought, “Time's running out.” I’m reminded how temporary this life can be. As temporary as my footprints in the sand of time.
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
1:55 PM
Wednesday, July 03, 2002
Wild Seeds and Fresh Perspectives
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
Vacations are wilderness gardens. They grow the wild seeds of momentous change in our lives.
You map out an itinerary to get started. You hit the road with too much gear and food. Something important is always left behind. But, as each day passes you shed the habits of your life and become open to the adventures, grand and small, afforded you.
The new scenery. The glitches unplanned for -- which back home might have you stressed out – but, on vacation are dispatched with a smile. You run into helpful, friendly people.
Local guides to narrow choices and to give you that extra measure of fun, challenge, and pleasure. You forget your past life. You take on another. You notice and hear new things. You see things in a new light.
More from the “Learning Expedition’s Journal.”
“Ships Log 2:01 a.m.
I don't know exactly where I am -- or we are. I feel like a lost explorer adrift in this endless night. The captain said to just stay the course. Oh, yeah. I should awaken him if anything peculiar happened.
Great! What hasn't been peculiar?
This is my 3-hour watch.
Everyone else is asleep down below. I don't know how I let myself get talked into this expedition.
Do you ever get used to the chaotic, rolling motion?
If you turn around and look over your shoulder, you see a black velvet curtain where once mainland stood so prominently.
Actually, at this time of night you can't be sure which direction is forward and which direction is backwards.
If you lift your gaze upwards towards the heavens, you can't help but feel insignificant.
A billion trillion stars sparkle.
That is until the bank of ominous clouds closes in quickly.
Just imagine how much planet space the oceans cover.
And just think about how we're just a speck on the surface of bobbing and weaving, tacking back and forth.
But fathoms below ....
It's easy to imagine the moments of danger and panic seafarers experienced during storms with those gale force winds.
The helplessness.
Completely at the mercy of nature.
Strange sounds pull you back from your moment of solitude. Creaking and groaning. Relentless waves pounding a lonely rhythm.
What if an unexpected wave suddenly shoots over the side rail and washes you into the dark ocean, while everyone else just sleeps?
They'd never find you.
Makes you start thinking again.
Outside of your small circle of family and friends, would anyone really miss you?
All the petty stuff filling up your life -- what does it all add up to?
What is really important?
What's your life all about?”
That journal focused me on three core questions. They suddenly bubbled to the surface when I put the journal down on the night stand. I grabbed a pen and pad and wrote:
Can you really make a difference in a way that truly matters?
Is it really possible to find meaning doing what you love to do?
While being successful at the same time?”
So maybe, these questions framed my purpose. Clearly I had begun. I was here on my vacation. Now, I had a purpose.
And, a map of variables to play with as I design the next chapter of my life.
Hmm. What’s next, I thought?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
6:07 AM
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