Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Friday, November 22, 2002
New World Order, US Social Security Goes Belly Up
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
Top one hundred trends: 100-91, 90-81, 80-71, 70-61, 60-51, 50-41
40 – Medicare, Social Security & interest absorb all tax revenues by 2012 triggered by the baby boom generation's retirement, which officially commences in 2008 (Heilemann)
39 – Social Security isn't set to go bust until 2029, its first cash-flow shortfall - i.e., when it starts ballooning the deficit - is forecast for 2008. (Heilemann)
38 – The developed world is in the midst of a once-a-century paradigm shift: from the old industrial order to the globally interdependent, knowledge-based economy in ascendance (Howard)
37 – From 1998 to 2008: small and large growth stocks will do well. Also emerging countries in the international sector (Dent)
36 – During this timeframe real estate and REIT funds look attractive (Dent)
35 – Dow will reach 21,500 around 2008 and the time to harvest stock and most real-estate investments (Dent)
34 – Shift into long-term treasuries and very high quality corporate bonds between 2006 to 2008. (Dent)
33 – In 2009 or 2010 expect the first serious U.S. and global stock correction and shift bond portfolios into Japanese and some European stocks. (Dent)
32 – From 2015 to 2023 look for long-term buying opportunities in exurban real estate, emerging countries, and U.S. small cap stocks. (Dent)
31 – Return to a classic investment portfolio allocated among large caps, small caps, real estate, international, and bonds beginning in 2020 or 2023. (Dent)
30-21
What’s your take?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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