Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Monday, November 18, 2002
Overlay of Political and Technical Trends
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
Top one hundred trends: 100-91, 90-81, 80-71, 70-61, 60-51
50 – A long-term commitment to a permanent military establishment grows (Cetron)
49 – Smart weapons may tend to reduce military personnel requirements (Cetron)
48 – Compulsory national service for 2 years is likely for males and females: military service, vista-type working with disadvantaged or peace Corps (Cetron)
47 – International affairs and national security as a major societal factor (Cetron)
46 – The integration of national and international economies (Cetron)
45 – U.S. balanced-budget efforts will force tradeoffs, e.g., space shuttle vs. food stamps vs. aid to education (Cetron)
44 – International trade cooperation will take precedent over national self-interest (Cetron)
43 – International economies will interact more on the world's stock exchanges (Cetron)
42 – Union membership will make up only 10% of the U.S. labor force (Cetron)
41 – Bimodal distribution: bigger get bigger, middle get squeezed, small survive (Cetron)
40-31
What’s your take?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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