Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Thursday, November 14, 2002
The Rise of Agents and Athletes – Professional Knowledge Workers
Chapter One: Basecamp
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
Top one hundred trends: 100-91, 90-81, 80-71, 70-61
60 – Self-employed people in the U.S. continue to grow at 4 times the rate of salaried workers. (Cetron)
59 – More mid-career professionals will opt for entrepreneurship from downsizing. (Cetron)
58 – Only 1 person in 50 will be promoted to top management in big companies (Cetron)
57 – 85% of workers will be working for firms with fewer than 200 people. (Cetron)
56 – Growth of self-managing specialists; input from colleagues, customers &
Headquarters (Cetron)
55 – In 2010 large businesses will have less than 50% the levels of management (Cetron)
54 – They'll operate with 33% of the number of managers. (Cetron)
53 – Subordinates will increase from 7 to 21 for each manager (Cetron)
52 – Advancements will be few; opportunities will be within narrow specialties
51 – Task-focused specialist will do the actual work. Traditional departments will assign specialists, set standards, and do training
50-41
What’s your take?
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Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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