Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.
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How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought:
Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth.
Got Knowledge?
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
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Tuesday, April 22, 2003
Agents: Me Go-Go Fast
Chapter Two: The Ridge
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“The cost of oil dependence has never been so clear. What had long been largely an environmental issue has suddenly become a deadly serious strategic concern. Oil is an indulgence we can no longer afford. Not just because it will run out or turn the planet into a sauna, but because it inexorably leads to global conflict. Enough. What we need is a massive, Apollo-scale effort to unlock the potential of hydrogen, a virtually unlimited source of power. The technology is at a tipping point. Terrorism provides political urgency. Consumers are ready for an alternative. From Detroit to Dallas, even the oil establishment is primed for change.”
Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, “How Hydrogen Can Save America,” Wired April 2003
Journal of 2020 Foresight: You’ve described the extreme Agents
as charter members of the One Percent Solution club. Which seems like an oxymoron to me.
Trailblazer: I prefer to describe them as “paradoxy-morons.” They’re dumb like-a-fox, often looking at a well-established, mature approach from an offbeat perspective. And what they notice is how limited the traditional way solves the really complex problems.
J2020F: So they don’t identify with the keepers of the tradition – Associates on the one hand, and Academics on the other hand.
TB: That’s right. Both of those groups gravitate to different versions of the Ninety Percent Solution clubs. Academics prefer to distance themselves from the action so as to remain objective. They follow a well-articulated and tested methodology through which they filter all changing conditions. Agents represent the new and untested. The new science, if you will, in direct contrast to the old science.
J2020F: And what about Associates?
TB: As one of my colleagues says, “They drank the Kool-Aid.” They’ve digested the mission of their organization and it resides in their blood stream. When you ask them what they do, they almost always tell you the organization they work for. They’re keepers of the social system – the formal and informal culture. They may change jobs and careers, but all within the same organization.
J2020F: What do you mean by One Percent Solution?
TB: You’re probably familiar with a bell-shaped curve. If you split it in half, on the left-side you have an S-shaped growth path of acceleration. On the right you have the mirror opposite of an “S.” Instead of growth, you find accelerating decline.
J2020F: So, the threat to the 90% mature organization – enjoying their top of the bell -- is the freefall into the valley of despair?
TB: Right. They’ve sustained their innovations from the past, but now their offering is such a commodity that they can’t prop up their perch any longer. If they haven’t invested in enough 1% ideas – organic growth – at the right time, they’ll miss the benefits of accelerating up the next S-curve (the left side).
J2020F: And, extreme Agents, then supply those 1% ideas, right?
TB: That’s right. Joel Barker broke down the lifecycle of a new paradigm into 3 phases along the s-curve – A, B, and C. Likewise, Harry Dent described the phases as innovation, growth, and maturity. Since the 1970s Dent has successfully forecasted how specialized products, services and technologies move from small niche markets into the mainstream.
J2020F: Agents appear in the innovation, A - phases?
TB: Yes, Dent’s contributed a way to better predict when to invest. His work says the time it takes for an Agent to move an idea from a .1% idea to a 1% prototype, and finally to a 10% niche in the marketplace (Innovation), is roughly the same amount of time it takes for that niche to accelerate up the curvilinear curve of market acceptance through 50% to 90% (Growth).
J2020F: And the same time for a mature market to reach saturation?
TB: Exactly. You can enjoy the benefits of being the king of the hill for roughly the same amount of time it took you to move through either of the first two phases.
J2020F: So maturity, from 90% to 99.9% is equal to the amount of time it took to move from 10% though 50% to 90% acceptance?
TB: And, is in turn equal to the amount of time to move from .1% through 1% to 10% market acceptance.
J2020F: I take it that Agents come in several flavors.
TB: That’s right. They may be change agents in organizations or they may be living a more entrepreneurial lifestyle. They collaborate in non-organizational federations, networks, or strategic alliances. Some are inventors. Others are artists, writers, consultants, salespeople, and entrepreneurs.
J2020F: What do they all have in common?
TB: The faith that they have what it takes to bring something new into being. They’re drawn to high risk. They’re capable of anticipating something new and act decisively to establish a new market, industry, technology, or a new scientific discipline.
J2020F: They are what Joel Barker calls the paradigm pioneers? They champion a new paradigm with the potential of resetting the established way of doing things back to zero?
TB: Yes. In early 2003, the author of “A New Kind of Science,” Stephen Wolfram, fits your description.
J2020F: In what way?
TB: Here’s how “Wired” described him for their 4th Annual Rave Awards – in both the Author and Renegade-of-the-Year categories – “Wolfram’s theory that virtually everything – from the patterns on a seashell to the universe itself – is the result of simple instructions is revolutionary.
If Wolfram is correct, nature builds complexity much like a computer program, and his view are likely to change how science is conducted in the lab and taught in the classroom.”
J2020F: Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the Renegade Award given by the readers?
TB: No, you are right. Here’s his profile, according to Wired – “Stephen Wolfram has never been bound by a sense of what’s possible.
He earned a PhD in physics at age 20, and created Mathematica, the premier technical computing software system, before he was 30. With the publication of his epic book, A New Kind of Science, Wolfram has set out to rattle the foundations of research, in the tradition of Galileo and Newton.”
J2020F: So Wolfram fits the description of an extreme Agent.
TB: He’s an AGENT-Agent. Later we’ll get to the other three types of Agents – AGENT-Athlete, AGENT-Associate, and AGENT-Academic, but for now let's continue with our "Running Together" (Athlete) scenario.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
6:10 AM
Monday, April 21, 2003
Disruptive Innovation, Emergent Knowledge and Just-in-time Human Capital
Chapter Two: The Ridge
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“You gotta know when to hold’em and when to fold’em.”
Kenny Rogers, “The Gambler”
Journal of 2020 Foresight: The HR Executives crafted four alternative futures for human resource development build on a stack of cards, right?
Trailblazer: Well. These aren’t any old cards, and they’re certainly not Tarot cards, but, yes, I guess you could say so. Before they sorted their cards into four stacks, they narrowed down the 100 cards into a more manageable list of 19:
5 – Work will return to a more customer-centric focus “(as opposed to an emphasis on functional skills), the resurgence of small, dynamic work teams, and more value placed on creative, right-brain, entrepreneurial skills.” (Dent)
25 – People working in all kinds of fields the professions, education, government, the arts - begin pushing the applications of networked computers . (Schwartz & Leyden)
26 – By about 2005, high-bandwidth connections that can easily move video have become common in developed countries, and videophones finally catch on. (Schwartz & Leyden)
30 – The basic science is now in place for five great waves of technology - personal computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and alternative energy - that could rapidly grow the economy without destroying the environment. (Schwartz & Leyden)
42 – Union membership will make up only 10% of the U.S. labor force. (Cetron)
44 – International trade cooperation will take precedent over national self-interest. (Cetron)
46 – The integration of national and international economies. (Cetron)
51 – Task-focused specialist will do the actual work. Traditional departments will assign specialists, set standards, and do training . (Cetron)
52 – Advancements will be few; opportunities will be within narrow specialties. (Cetron)
53 – Subordinates will increase from 7 to 21 for each manager . (Cetron)
54 – They'll operate with 33% of the number of managers. (Cetron)
55 – In 2010 large businesses will have less than 50% the levels of management (Cetron)
57 – 85% of workers will be working for firms Traditional departments will assign specialists, set standards, and do training people. (Cetron)
58 – Only with fewer than 200 1 person in 50 will be promoted to top management in big companies (Cetron)
60 – Self-employed people in the U.S. continue to grow at 4 times the rate of salaried workers . (Cetron)
91 – Erosion of work ethic will negatively impact future corporate performance (Cetron)
96 – Learning environment will lose its importance: Individuals will learn more on their own; Learning places will be more dispersed; and Age at what time things are learned will depend more on the individual (Cetron)
97 – Institutions will apply breakthroughs in individual cognition in new education settings (Cetron)
98 –Improvements in teaching science will revolutionize learning. (Cetron)
J2020F: So, the team sorted the 19 forces into 4 piles. What did the team do with the cards?
TB: Actually they provided the skeletal structure until each individual story began to tell itself from the eight original forces.
J2020F: How did the story begin to exert itself?
TB: The team realized their original horizontal axis defined learning time. On the left-hand extreme learners required information just-in-time as they faced a problem. On the extreme right-hand side of learning time axis, the team acknowledged that knowledge doesn’t automatically develop from data at their finger tips.
J2020F: By that you mean?
TB: In most knowledge management circles – heavily influenced by software peddlers and biased by an information technology perspective -- the mantra describes the sequence of data, information, and then knowledge.
J2020F: But, this team discovered a different knowledge dimension?
TB: Yes, one that developed from experience.
J2020F: Learning from experience?
TB: Yes, they came to see Agents as the catalysts behind disruptive innovation. As a colleague once said, Agents excel at going from 0 to 1. But, it takes somebody else to go from 1 to 1000. In our case, that someone is an Athlete.
J2020F: Between the two, the power of a new idea becomes commercialized, and the new knowledge created in the process becomes a proprietary advantage, right?
TB. Instead of knowledge management – data, information and knowledge, the sequence is knowledge creation and development.
J2020F: Is that what you meant earlier when you said the learning expedition realized what they needed, in the not too distant future, is system for stimulating, capturing, organizing, circulating, cultivating and deploying ideas?
TB: Yes. They realized that they uncovered a two-way interaction. They had been used to a training paradigm – in which an instructor conducts a class and imparts knowledge.
The just-in-time requirements frightened them initially, until they came to realize online tools, templates, and reference materials could significantly increase learning retention.
The story opened the way for a training perspective to be turned into a learning and knowledge paradigm.
J2020F: And the other way?
TB: They realized drawing best practices out of the experience of their most knowledgeable workers could be circulated informally, and later captured formally in a training program.
So, instead of an instructor, the experts and their experience is shared throughout the organization.
J2020F: And, with the right kind of network, that expert could mentor those who hadn’t quite mastered an emerging or a proven core competency.
TB: Right.
J2020F: Now, what about the Associates and the Academics?
TB: This might be hard to imagine, but just in how the four boxes are laid out, some of these scenario squares sit adjacent to each other while others sit diagonally opposed to others.
J2020F: If they’re on the same axis, they’re adjacent right? Like Agent and Athlete both share the speed axis, while Associate and Academic share the slower paced mastery matrix, right?
TB: Yes, and Agent and Academic share the same independent affiliation axis, while Athlete and Associate share the same organizational identity axis.
J2020F: But, there are other combinations worth noting?
TB: Yes, Agents vs. Associates and Athletes vs. Academics sit opposite from each other, respectively.
J2020F: In more ways than one, I’m guessing.
TB: As you will see later, when we explore each talent scenario in more detail, they share very little in common. In fact, some expedition members have come to believe that they are so opposite, that they may only form “toxic relationships.”
J2020F: They don’t share any dimension?
TB: Well, near the completion of the 3rd order implications, one team member connected each of the pairs with a dotted line – from the corner of the Agent box to the corner of the Associate box.
J2020F: And from the corner of the Athlete box to the corner of the Academic box?
TB: Yes, and what we discovered was the innovation dimension with the first pair. It stretched from disruptive innovation beginning in the Agent and continuing to sustained innovation in the Associate.
J2020F: What about the other pair?
TB: From emergent knowledge in the Athlete running to embodied knowledge crawling in the Academic.
J2020F: So what does that mean to the HR executives?
TB: It means several things. Over a lifecycle of an organization’s development one or more of these talent clusters dominate.
J2020F: By that you mean, what?
TB: Well, for instance, an Agent entrepreneur teams up with an Athlete to bring to market a brand new product or service.
As demand catches on and other products or services need to be produced at higher volumes, Associates help sustain the early innovations.
Later in a mature phase of development the professional staff, or Academics, come on board to manage the more complex, specialized systems.
J2020F: By that time, my experience has been, the original Agents and some of the Athletes leave for greener pastures.
TB: On the backside of the “bell shaped curve of organizational life” the organization needs the Agents and Athletes to re-invent themselves out of a severe decline.
But the organization typically has become so ossified trapped by its successful processes and procedures that it doesn’t realize their customer base has moved on, or they’ve hit 99.9% market saturation, until it is too late.
J2020F: I can see that the laid-off Associates feel traumatized because they identified so loyally with the parent company.
TB: And, Academics, the professional disciplines, lack the vision and faith an Agent brings to the party. But, because their identity remains with their profession, they experience less trauma moving to another organization than the Associates. But, we’ll focus next on the Agent scenario.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
7:34 AM
Thursday, April 17, 2003
Driving Down Main Street, It’s Not Your Father’s Oldsmobile Any More
Chapter Two
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
“Now, perhaps there are a few rare individuals who are up to the challenge of leading organizations throughout all three of these modes, but for most of us, that simply is unrealistic. So instead, let us try to solve the problem first personally, and then institutionally. Recall Treacy and Wiersema's advice for companies was to focus on a single discipline to create a foundation for excellence. If we cannot follow that advice precisely as an enterprise, there is nothing to stop us from doing so as individuals. Which of the three value disciplines, then, most inspires us?”
Geoffrey Moore, INSIDE THE TORNADO
Journal of 2020 Foresight: You told us the HR executive learning expedition changed the names of their scenarios as the stories emerged over time.
Trailblazer: That’s right. The final names on their survey instrument became: Agents (Me go-go Fast); Athletes (Running Together); Associates (Welcome Back Kotter / Learning Together); and Academics (Absent Minded Professor / Out to Sea and Treading Water).
J2020F: How did they arrive at their conclusions? Where did they start?
TB: They played a card game that led them implication-by-implication to organizational life phases, issues of fit, talent portfolios, disruptive innovation, emerging knowledge, sustained excellence, transitional states, embodied knowledge, business cycles, intangible assets and internal brands.
J2020F: That’s quite a game. How is it played?
TB: Each team member scanned through the 100 cards, each with a trend, paradigm or driving force printed on it. Here they are in sets of 10:
1 to 10: Warm, Resort Migration Shift Driving the Next Real-Estate Boom
11 to 20: DNA Construction Kits, Hydrogen Hybrid Autos
21 to 30: PCs, Telecommunications, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, Alternative Energy TechnoWaves
31 to 40: New World Order, US Social Security Goes Belly Up
41 to 50: Overlay of Political and Technical Trends
51 to 60: The Rise of Agents and Athletes – Professional Knowledge Workers
61 to 70: Mass Customization Boom and Deflation for the Next Decade
71 to 80: Be Nice to Your Niece, You Might Make it to 100
81 to 90: A Hundred Trends on the Wall, If 10 of them Happen to Fall …
91 to 100: Future Work: Social and Economic Drivers
J2020F: Then what?
TB: They pitched the cards into 4 piles of roughly 25 each.
J2020F: How did they decide onto which pile a card should go?
TB: They sorted by intuition and discussion as they read each description.
J2020F: So they clustered the cards according to any loose association or affinity to one and another? What happened next?
TB: Through further discussion, they brainstormed which forces in each cluster represented the most uncertainty and the highest impact on their challenge.
J2020F: So, they conducted a forced ranking?
TB: Yes. Through some creative thinking, they brainstormed a list of four polar-opposite dimensions on a flip chart that appeared to capture the essence of their rankings.
J2020F: Earlier, you told us the horizontal x-axis stretched between the two opposites of “Technology-driven Speed” and “Mastery.”
TB: That’s right.
J2020F: And, the vertical y-axis spanned the distance between “Independent Identity” on the top and “Organizational Affiliation” on the bottom.
TB: That’s right. So, when they drew a cross out of the two axes, and then enclosed the sides and tops, they completed a four-box matrix.
J2020F: And the different combinations defined the boundaries of each future scenario, right?
TB: Exactly. One set of combinations that became the Agent cluster formed at the corner of “Independent Identity / Operating at Top Speed”. Sharing the fast pace with Agents, but with an organizational affiliation are the Athletes. Academics form at the intersection of independent identity, but on a human scale of mastery. Moving at the same pace, but with an organizational loyalty is the Associate cluster.
J2020F: What happened next?
TB: They applied the Implications Wheel, originally pioneered by Joel Barker.
J2020F: How do you use it?
TB: You can use it in any number of ways. Over the years learning expeditions gain the most out of it for story development or for improving the original decision, plan or strategy by avoiding threats or accelerating opportunities.
J2020F: In this case the team used it for kick-starting the scenario process?
TB: Yes. First they were told that an implication is any possible result or consequence. Second, they began in the center, at the intersection of the four boxes where the vertical and horizontal axes crossed. They then returned to their original four piles of volatile forces and selected the top two having the highest impact as a basis to begin implications in each quadrant.
J2020F: So I’m assuming the four stacks of cards correspond to the four boxes in the matrix, right?
TB: Right. So for example the expedition reviewed and sorted the forces in the Agent box. The top two the selected were:
The number of self-employed workers grows at a rate four times greater than the number of salaried employees.
The Internet sets the pace of organizational life. It’s speed and velocity means information bypasses middle managers buried in layers of a hierarchy.
J2020F: The initial possibilities radiate out and are first order implications?
TB: Sure, using sticky notes, the team asked themselves, "What might happen if each of these first order things occur?" Both positive and negative implications.
J2020F: If I follow you, then, using sticky notes they write down the next sequence. And, in turn each of the 2nd order implications are examined for 3rd order implications.
TB: You are on the right track. Each of the first order implications branch out, like branches on a tree trunk. We’ve discovered this approach forces us out of our thinking ruts.
It provides a look at more than just what's around the corner. And, almost always it stimulates a more comprehensive discussion of the future to make better decisions.
J2020F: Are there any special rules we should follow to get the most out of the technique?
TB: In doing the wheel do it in complete concentric circles, rather than chaining 1st, 2nd, 3rd order in sequence.
Make sure you have at least one positive and one negative implication before leaving a node.
And, remember this is a creative thinking exercise, so even if the odds are 1 in a million an item is still possible at this stage.
J2020F: So what were the two first order implications in each scenario?
TB: Associate (Slow pace, organizational loyalty): Organization has a huge investment in an installed base already, but questions its pathway to growth; and
Their product lifespan is longer. They are used to a slower pace of change, in a more predictable and stable business environment.
Academic (Slow pace, professional identity): In this type of organization mastery takes time. Any expertise developed, however, needs to be marketable; and
Expertise is upgraded within a professional community.
Agent (Fast pace, independent identity): The number of self-employed workers grows at a rate four times greater than the number of salaried employees; and
The Internet sets the pace of organizational life. It’s speed and velocity means information bypasses middle managers buried in layers of a hierarchy.
Athlete (Fast pace, team identity): They’re capable of establishing a pace of change in the industry like Intel; and
They need to guard their organization’s core competencies while quickly managing increasing degrees of complexity.
J2020F: From these 8 first order uncertain forces – 2 in each scenario – the second order implications branched out.
TB: In a sense the chain reaction provided the skeletal structure until each individual story began to tell itself, as you will see.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
8:47 AM
Wednesday, April 16, 2003
The Future for Individuals and Organizations Entering a New Life Stage
Chapter Two: The Ridge
By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs
Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories
"Even the big, solid companies, the pillars of the society we live in, seem to hold out for not much longer than an average of 40 years. And that 40-year figure, short though it seems, represents the life expectancy of companies of a considerable size. These companies have already survived their first 10 years, a period of high corporate "infant mortality." In some countries, 40 percent of all newly created companies last less than 10 years. The average life expectancy of all firms, regardless of size, measured in Japan and much of Europe, is only 12.5 years. I know of no reason to believe that the situation in the United States is materially better."
Arie De Geus, "The Living Company: Habits for Survival in a Turbulent Business Environment."
Journal of 2020 Foresight: Let's turn to another set of scenarios. While we've been discussing four scenarios for individuals and their lifework options, let's look at those issues from the viewpoint of an employer and the development of talent -- worklife options.
Trailblazer: Right. Not everyone will chose to work for themselves, especially in times of high turmoil.
J2020F: As is the case in our own lives, we know no organization is immune from the forces that are transforming our world. Every organization can and must evolve. In this new era, that means we must involve more ideas and more ideas at all levels in strategy, innovation and value creation.
TB: I agree. For organizations to grow, they must think and act at the pace of accelerating change. The next five years will determine which companies die and which survive.
J2020F: We also know that organizations grow through life stages, and what works in one stage doesn't necessarily work in another -- especially during extreme business cycles.
TB: So, HR executives need to anticipate the demand for different sets of talent. During layoffs, they're the ones delivering the bad news and arranging outplacement services.
J2020F: But, with thousands of ideas already existing within organizations, and survival at stake for a community of like-minded people, doesn't that mean we are entering the golden age for human resources.
TB: Sure. Despite changing business cycles, the real challenge is to extract, organize and recognize great ideas for innovation. What is needed is system for stimulating, capturing, organizing, circulating, cultivating and deploying ideas. Innovation doesn?t happen by itself. It begins and ends with people -- human resources. But, how to do that in the future wasn?t clear to this expedition.
J2020F: You've described the multi-step process that helped them. You use script writing or story telling to flesh out four possible futures.
TB: Yes, in the last few conversations we summarized four plot lines for mid-career boomers at a career and lifestyle crossroads. Now, we will use the same approach, but turn our attention to organizations at a crossroads.
J2020F: In 1999 the expedition of human resources executives sorted uncertain forces along talent development dimensions for their organizations.
TB: Again, with this expedition Lost Explorer shared his "scenario implications wheel" to get the scenario writing started on their four Talent Scenarios:
"Me go-go Fast Scenario"
"Running Together Scenario"
"Welcome Back Kotter / Learning Together Scenario" and
"Absent Minded Professor / Out to Sea and Treading Water Scenario"
J2020F: You also promised after you describe these next four scenarios, when we look at all 8 scenarios, two sides of the same coin come together.
TB: Yes, as a matter of fit. From the individual perspective, you want to find out as much as you can about the culture and advancement opportunities at a prospective employer or organizational client.
And from the HR perspective the fit assessment depends upon what?s missing from their current capabilities, how long it takes to develop their internal talent pool to make up the gap, and how many of their surplus talent they can afford or let go.
J2020F: Let?s talk about some of those forces the HR executives identified as highly uncertain and yet highly significant to future success and failure.
TB: Starting from the inside out, they clustered their concerns into the following focus questions. What is the future organization's point of view about talent? Will they "appreciate or depreciate" their "knowledge base"?
How will employees of the future view their relationships with organizations? Where and when (if at all) will development take place? How do you go about converting talent into corporate assets?
J2020F: And, if I remember correctly, some of the practitioners delivered their expertise in a stand-up classroom setting. So, their own personal career concern, was what?
TB: Will the human resource development profession, as it is currently practiced, become obsolete in the near, medium, or long term future?
J2020F: Earlier, you told us the horizontal x-axis stretched between two opposites. Between "Technology-driven Speed" and "Mastery." The vertical y-axis spanned the distance between "Independent Identity" on the top and "Organizational Affiliation" on the bottom.
TB: Yes, they changed the names, and began validating an assessment instrument that addresses their talent management and career development issues.
J2020F: They changed the names?
TB: Right, at a midpoint in the scenario development process the story lines exerted newer themes. We'll explore each in more detail, but the four newer names are:
Agents: Me go-go Fast
Athletes: Running Together
Associates: Welcome Back Kotter / Learning Together
Academics: Absent Minded Professor / Out to Sea and Treading Water
J2020F: So, in response to all of the turmoil and pressures organizations face over their lifespan, one or more of these talent clusters contribute more to the growth of their organization?
TB: Yes, and as we will see the HR expedition developed scenarios for each talent cluster that clarified how each cluster can represent a particular type of organization, as well. But first they stacked and sorted the deck into winning hands.
Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
7:20 AM
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