The Journal of 2020 Foresight

Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.

How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?

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Monday, July 10, 2006

Is there a Major Dent In Your 5-Year Plan?

Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

“Greendale seems to be a pretty mellow place, really. Not very big, but it’s big enough. And there’s a jail and Satan lives in the jail. He’s in every town, I think, but in this town he’s in jail…. But he doesn’t have to stay there, he can just leave when he wants. He just walks through the wall. But he likes it in there… I think it’s the people who were there before him or something, make him feel good.”

Neil Young & Crazy Horse “Greendale”

DOUBLE NICKEL RANCH. So, make your money and run. The current 5-year plan, for 2003 to 2008, is to acquire wealth and to figure out how to protect your nest egg for a decade, while you take advantage of buying opportunities in a prolonged recession lasting for at least the last two of our 5-year time frames: 2009 – 2014 and 2015 to 2020.

Journal of 2020 Foresight: As we discussed many times before on our journey out west, we began like they did with a crude map, a sense that we’d be embarking on our own voyage of discovery and that we’d be discovering new regions – at least for us.

Trailblazer: I often imagined what the fur traders and expeditions must have experienced as we traveled from town to town and from state to state.

J2020F: Me too. I fantasized that our mission was, as we came ashore, to chart the lay of the land, claim it as our own, and to discover its secrets so that we may prosper.

Trailblazer: Leaving the safety of our ship, we establish a beachhead -- our Basecamp, right?

J2020F: Yes, and from there we dispatch scouting parties to the ridge for the best vantage point. We pick the best paths to follow into the interior setting up outposts along the way as exploration bases of operations.

Trailblazer: And weighing our options, we are ever mindful that we operate at great distances from our resources and the safety and security of our Basecamp.

J2020F: In many cases we didn't know what to expect.

Trailblazer: Obviously, today, more communities or tribes live in each of the on the map. Americans tend to forget that the West wasn’t empty – Native Americans had inhabited it and roamed throughout it for centuries.

J2020F: Even today, communities can be closed to outsiders as we discovered. Some welcome us others turn us away depending upon what we seek in trade and what they have experienced before us. Especially, when speculators drive up real estate prices so high that Gen X and Gen Y members won’t be able to buy a home in the community in which they live.

Trailblazer: I think today, if we were to buy a second home in a resort community we’d be asking some important questions about fit.

J2020F: If we decide to live among them, will we enjoy our experience or will we live to regret it?

Trailblazer: Good point. For me that was an important part of the journey.

Before we began the Outpost, we had already whittled down the 10 sets of 10 trends and predictions and I wanted to evaluate the final nine in our 2003 to 2008 plan:

9 – From 2008 to 2020 – 2030: the next Great Depression arrives signaling the end to suburban and large-city real estate, as well as commercial real estate outside of small towns. (Dent)

8 – By 2006 PCs will reach 70 to 90% of all households. (Dent)

7 – The Internet will reach 90% penetration of urban and suburban households by 2010. (Dent)

6 – The networked organization – companies that truly run from the customer back – will dominate. Savvy leaders will view every customer as a market and every employee as a business. (Dent)

5 – Work will return to customer focus “(as opposed to an emphasis on functional skills), the resurgence of small, dynamic work teams, and more value placed on creative, right-brain, entrepreneurial skills.” (Dent)

4 – Basic innovation in communication technologies is allowing more people to relocate their homes to small towns and exurbs, and telecommute to business. (Dent)

3 – The baby boomers are moving into their vacation-home-buying years, which, in combination with the first trend, will stimulate demand for property in attractive resort towns. (Dent)

2 – The echo baby-boom generation is now moving into its household formation years, which will stimulate demand for apartments and rental property in the cities, and has already caused commercial property in these areas to appreciate, (Dent)

1 – There is a broad geographic migration towards areas of the country with warmer climates. You can expect the first three trends to be accentuated in the southwestern United States. (Dent)

J2020F: So taken together, these trends account for the sudden media interest in Boomers!

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