Reports from the Knowledge Labs about our recent findings, research topics, and interviews with lifestyle leaders who are creating their own futures.


























 
How to stimulate your own powers of foresight. Consider the following thought provokers. Ask yourself, in these categories what are the brand new trends and forces? Which are the ones growing in importance? Which current forces are loosing their steam? Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? Which are the "wildcards" about to disrupt us in the future? POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL thought for food: Electronics, Materials, Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, Manufacturing (techniques), Agriculture, Machinery and Equipment, Distribution, Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), Post-Cold War, Third World, Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), Taxes, Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, U.S. Prestige Abroad. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC Food for thought: Labor Movements, Unemployment / Employment Cycles, Recession, Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Taxes, Rates of Real Growth, Distribution of Wealth, Capital Availability and Costs, Reliability of Forecasts, Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, Global versus National Economy, Market versus Planned Economies, Generations: Y, X, Boomers, Elderly, Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, Affluent vs. Poor, Neighborhoods and Communities, Planned or Organic Growth. Got Knowledge?


























 
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The Journal of 2020 Foresight
 
Wednesday, July 23, 2003  

Table of Contents
The Journal of 2020 Foresight

By Steve Howard, CKO
The Knowledge Labs

Table of Contents
Chapter One: Basecamp
Chapter Two: The Ridge
Chapter Three: The Outpost
Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

Introduction

Since beginningless time people have wanted to know where life will take them. Today you and I are in one of those periods that occur every 200 or 300 years when people don't understand the world anymore, when the past is not sufficient to explain the future. Turbulent changes in the current of our life – its pace, pattern and scale – challenge our notions of what is real. Mastering new rules is like trying to cross a white-water river. If you can anticipate the whirlpools and the changes in the current, if you can anticipate the landing on the other shore, you have a much better chance of getting across that river successfully.
Basecamp Summary

When we come to a cross-roads in our lives, we can choose any one of 11 options: 1) Change positions in same organization: 2) Change organizations in same field; 3) Change careers; 4) Grow in same job, moonlight; 5) Start a business; 6) Buy a business; 7) Buy a franchise; 8) Develop a consulting practice; 9) Pursue a portfolio career; 10) Live on investment portfolio and volunteer; 11) Retire, yet freelance or consult to supplement income. Which one(s) will current markets and longer-term future trends support? Which ones will lead to dead ends and disappointment? The choice is yours.
The Ridge Summary

You must find your own role in that special part of the world that brings out the best imaginable in you. The future of five economic offerings – commodities, goods, services, experiences, and transformations – yields five very distinct possibilities, with tremendous ramifications for you, your business, your employees, and your customers. Those futures dramatically impact the quality of life in communities around the world. Already manufacturers and service providers see their offerings commoditized as more and more businesses charge explicitly for the memorable encounters they stage. To make a real difference in the lives of your customers – and to breathe life into new ideas takes determined individuals filled with foresight, Yankee ingenuity and good old-fashioned American know-how. What business are you in? What business do you really, really want to be in? And, where do you want to live -- any place in the world?
The Outpost Summary

Where will you be and what will you be doing in the next five years? Will economic cycles before and after 2010 support your plans? Will you be forced to live a lifestyle or work in a job you hate? Will your energy, vitality and health slowly drain away? Or will you be doing what you love, while living your own version of the new American Dream in a resort town, small college and university town, classic town, revitalized factory towns, exurb, suburban villages, emerging new city, large-growth city, or urban village?
The Tribal Territories Summary

Chapter One: Basecamp

In Hindsight?

Got Knowledge

Stories from the Creative Minority

Yogi Berra and Sun Tzu at the Crossroads

Memo from Basecamp

Hoodoo You Know, What’s That Calling?

The Bliss Man and This Mysterious Game of Life

The Gripping Stories of Human Life

The Way of the Adventurer

Learning Expedition – Answering a Call to Adventure

Future by Life Design

Wild Seeds and Fresh Perspectives

The Morning After, Ships Log 9:30 a.m.

At the Heart of the Journey

Abrupt Endings

Out-Of-Body Elevator Ride

Disorientation, Networking, and Self-Doubts

Beating Back the Beast in Sea of Cubicles with a Ship's Bell

TGIF

Back to Basecamp On The Fly

Winning by Creating Better Opportunities for those Who Follow

Spending Waves, Turning Points, and Strategic Breakers

Where’s the Real Rock When A River Runs Through It?

The Mind Swallowing Up the World

From Bob Hope to David Letterman: Innovation and Inflation

Oil Shocks, Japanese Invasion, Revenge of the ‘70s

Future Work: Social and Economic Drivers

A Hundred Trends on the Wall, If 10 of them Happen to Fall …

Be Nice to Your Niece, You Might Make it to 100

Mass Customization Boom and Deflation for the Next Decade

The Rise of Agents and Athletes – Professional Knowledge Workers

Overlay of Political and Technical Trends

New World Order, US Social Security Goes Belly Up

PCs, Telecommunications, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, Alternative Energy TechnoWaves

DNA Construction Kits, Hydrogen Hybrid Autos

Warm, Resort Migration Shift Driving the Next Real-Estate Boom

Chapter Two: The Ridge

Forward to the Past, or Back to the Future: Where's the Anti-Murphy?

Anticipating Threats, Favorable, and Unfavorable Opportunities

Hannibal’s Prism Reframes our Perspective

Blips on the Radar, or Has the Big Bang Fuse Been Lit?

Mobile KnowCos and Talent Brands

Stories for Skipping Across the Valley of Despair

The Fools on The Hill See the World Spinning Round

Over-Specialized, Obsolete and Temporary -- But Not By Choice

Staying Put, Doing What You Love

Struggling Lone Eagle, Overpriced for Local Market

It’s Wired, Doing What You Want – Anywhere, Anytime

The Future for Individuals and Organizations Entering a New Life Stage

Driving Down Main Street, It’s Not Your Father’s Oldsmobile Any More

Disruptive Innovation, Emergent Knowledge and Just-in-time Human Capital

Agents: Me Go-Go Fast

Athletes: Running Together Scenario

Associates: Welcome Back Kotter / Learning Together Scenario

Academics: Absent Minded Professor / Out to Sea and Treading Water

Lifework Solutions: Templates to Extend an Organization’s Life Expectancy

180 Degrees of Separation: Vital Signs for Innovation or Efficiency

Start-ups: Paradoxy-Morons and the One Percent Solution Gang

Early Growth Athletes, Bowling Pin Strategy, and Incremental Do’s and Don’ts

Late Growth, Divisional Associates, Tighten & Leverage Organizational Brand

Yin and Yang Turning Points: Divergent or Convergent Industry Indicators

From Matrix to Network: Expand Horizons and Drive for Differentiation

Years to Shed Old Habits and Learn New Functional Skills

The Danger of Playing that Old Game of Resistance with Leadership-by-Committee

Revitalizing Status Quo into Change Agents for Broad Change

Renewal: Cascading Stepwise Changes by Collaborative Leadership

Restructuring: Shock to Strategy, Structure, and Systems

Realignment: Building Organizational Resilience and Breakpoint Capacity

Forming Breakpoint Alliances to Fill Competency Gaps

Knowledge Creation, Innovation and Organizational Learning

Chapter Three: The Outpost

Outpost Expeditions: Inside Tourist Cell Networks

Toasting Lewis and Clark in Cabo – Where the Land Ends and the Fun Begins

Timeshare This: Correction, Boom, Bubble, Burst, Bust, Correction, Bear-Depression

All In The Family: Where the Rainbow Hits the Road

Search for the New American Dream: Where in the World is Grey Owl?

Degrees of Kevin Bacon, Or Doing What You Love with Other Birds of a Feather

Out of Dana Point, Parker and Austin with Doc Holiday and the Flying Norseman

Springing Into Pagosa for Lifestyle and Community Fit with Trend-setting Neighbors

Big City Incomes Discover the Up-And-Coming Boondocks

Three Overlapping Lifecycles: Individual, Community and Organization

Outpost Itineraries: Kitchen Sinks and Wally World, or Routes Less Traveled

Lewis & Clark, MacKenzie, Hudson's Bay Co., Father Serra & the Mother Lode

350 Years of Trading: Missouri River Sources to San Francisco Bay

The Company of Adventurers: Commodities Exploration and Development

Mark Twain, Washoe’s Big Water, Comstock Lode, and Trophy Homes

New Eco-topia Explorers Hitting the Overland Trail at Starbucks

Emerging Westward Destiny: Whiteman's Fly, the 100-Mile Migration Indicator

Astoria and Sleepy Hollow, Indian Giving, Roots Along the Big Muddy

With the Right Pass, All the West is a Stage

Presidential Politics and Shifting Perspectives in the Rockies and Sierra Nevadas

Napoleon's Guest Ranch, The First Bush, Jed & Joe

The Fish-Eating Messiah and the Ghost Dancing Horse

Never the Twain Shall Meet: Branching Out from the Main Trails West

Near Fatal Curiosity, Camping Angels and Penniless Wanderings

McCoy’s Model-A-Ford-Rope-Tow, Fools and Compassionate Conservationists

The Confluence of Eves Dropping, Geo-caching, and Zip Coding in the Volcano

Retracing Jedediah Smith’s Trail: Bishop, the Mojave Desert and Laughlin

Grand Canyon Expeditions, Life Zones, Tribes, and the Watch Tower

“My God, Why Would Anyone Live Out Here?”

Grant, Sherman, Kit Carson and the Navajo Peach Tree Incident

Four Corners, Seven Directions, But One Wakan Tanka

Journeys of the Heart, Mesa Verde Collapse and New Mexico Expeditions

Purgatory, The River of Lost Souls, and the Stony Point Trail

Colorado’s Mother Lode: 17 Resort Communities to Fit Lifestyle Profiles

Uncle Billy, the Earl of Dunraven, Pearl Street & Emaciated Mountain Goats

Trading the Great Lakes for a Mile-High Lifestyle the Utes Left

Green River Geo-Rendezvous, Sabbaticals, Bridgers and Dinosaurs

Hurtling Through the Universe with the Wild Bunch and the Buffalo Soldiers

Awe-Inspiring: Stirring the Imagination and Kindling the Mind

Vegas Reflections on the New American Dream

Chapter Four: The Tribal Territories

Greendale’s Double Nickel Rendezvous

What’s It All About? Two Bits for an Adventure on the Way to Greendale

The Big Blue Marble Going Up in Smoke While We Eye-Ball a Milky Way

Migration Road Trips: 40,000 Year Old Footprints in Mexican Volcano Ash

Sedona to Manhattan, Same 30,000 Year Old Play Performed in Local Costumes

A Path of Original Experience: Where Only Fools and Heroes Dare to Tread

Predictable Crises and Awakenings for Idealists, Reactives, Heroes and Artists

Unraveling All in the Family: Boomers, Their Parents, Gens X, Y & Z

Boomer Transcendentalists: Kit Carson, Jedediah Smith and John Fremont

Making Census out of Generational Breakdowns and Psychographics

Will Boomer Nest Eggs Survive the Economy’s Big Bang Crack Up?

Is there a Major Dent In Your 5-Year Plan?

Boomer Prosumers, Revolutionary Wealth and a Flat Earth

Surfing the Third Wave: Wildest, Fastest Ride into the Future

Dealing with Disruptive Wildcards from the Outer Circles

Follow Your Dreams, But Plan for Climate, Lifestyle and Growth Changes

Time for Doing What We Love, Where We Want, While Leaving a Legacy

The Adventure Always Starts from Within

Future-Proof What You Love, Strike It Rich and Mine the Mother Lode

Staking Your Claim: Four Corners for Thinking Inside the Box

Affluently Elite Neighborhood Secrets: What Do They Know, That I Don’t?

“I Used To Be Somebody, Damn It!” -- Trapped and Permanently Temporary

Rustic Eagles: Country Comfortable and Rocky Mountain High

Landed Gentry: Wired to Live, Love, Work and Play Anywhere You Want

Finding Your Best Fit: Healthy, Wealthy and Wise Choices

Moving to Wireless Premier, Maturing, Suburban or Exurban Resorts

Vacation Lifestyles in Pristine Communities

Interim Managers Starting Over with Trapped Urban Cutters

Live, Love, Work and Play in Four Wealthy Dream Communities

Finding and Investing in Your Own Greendale

“X Marks the Spot” -- Panning Knowledge Nuggets in Multiple Income Streams

Banking Your Hidden Knowledge Assets in a Brain-Based Economy

Birds-Of-A-Feather Cultures: Choosing Organizations by the Talent They Keep

Talented Tribes: Speed to Disrupt and Emerge, Mastery to Sustain and Embed

Agents: Breakpoint Inventors, Innovators, Thought Leaders and R&D Lab Rats

Marketing Athletes, Resilient Teams, Core Groups and Operationally Excellents

Change Agents, Tiger Teams, Analytical Specialists and Loyal Survivalists

University R&D, Professionals, Academic Institutions and Brand-as-Experts

16 Ways to Increase Your Career Equity and Marketability

Encountering Support or Resistance to Your 100-Day Initiatives

Circling the Borders for the Path of Least Resistance

Talented Crisis Management: Leadership, Autonomy, Control, and Red Tape

Start-up Tribes: Breakpoint Inventors and Commercial Innovators

Leadership Crisis: Bonking into the Closed Garage Door

It Takes Resilient Athletes To Turn the Corner on High Growth

No More Head Banging: Tightening Operations Opens the Garage Door

Looking Into the Eye of the Tiger or Bonking at the Border

Loosen to Groom More Chiefs As a Bridge Over Autonomous Waters

Associates Multiply and Agents Leave Divisions for Redder Pastures

The Matrix: Tightening and Controlling Complexity with Expert Systems

Injecting Disruptive Reds: The Art of Skipping Tracks to the Inner Circle

Avoiding Red Tape Decline for Crash-Test Dummies

Reinvention Chef: Mixing the Right Talent Ingredients in Recipe for Growth

Internal Change Agents: Not Too Tan, Not Too Red to Reinvent on a Flat Earth

Every Organization Has a Stage, Pick the Right Cast for the Next Act

Customize Before You’re Commoditized: Premium, Differentiated and Relevant

Wild West Tales and Products More Valuable Than Commodities Extracted

Stepping Stones for Rebuilding Mountains Out of Flat Earth Mole Hills

Ultimate in Personalization: Staged Experiences to Transform Customers

Custom Reinvention Process: Develop, Link, Modularize and Renew

Customer Suspense: Untouchable Interplay Between Mystery and Nostalgia

Reinventing Customer Service: Explore, Experiment, Gratify and Discover

Winging It: Improvising the Reinvention of Customer Experience

Value Creation: Something New, Done, Improved or Applied

The Intangibles of Service Staged as Memorable Experiences

Masters of the Youniverse: Who Do You Need to Become?

Engaging the Four “E’s” of Experience Engineering

Experiencing the Round Worlds of Today, Yesterday and Tomorrow

Opening Gates to New Ideas, Technologies and Best Practices for Prosperity

Rediscover Your Drive Running Into the Sun

Mining Your Silver Lining on Google’s Earth

Internet Logging Tools for Thinning the Forest to See the Trees

Make a Spectacle of Yourself: Gather Inside Intelligence to Follow Your Nose

What’s In Your Quiver? Targeting the Inner Circle with the Right Arrows

Building a Web of Relationships One Strand at a Time

What’s the Sound of Two Hands Clasping?

The UnInterview: Presenting Business Intelligence to a Receptive Executive

Making it Easy to Buy Your Brilliant Ideas

Negotiating a Soft Close Takes a Village

Creating a Position: the Most Rewarding but Hardest to Buy

CNN with Your Six Thumbs Agenda

Jargon Translations: the Last Thumb Filtering for Fit

Finding the Right Combination for an Authentic SPIN

New Lenses for 2020 Vision: Insights Turning Hindsight into Foresight

Which Direction Will Your Life Take?

“It’s Been a Long Road Behind Me, and It’s a Long Road Ahead”

Got Knowledge?
Copyright ©2002 - 2006 Aarnaes Howard Associates. All rights reserved worldwide.
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